What if it rebounds slightly?
So what happpens if prices rebounds slightly today? A weak increase which do not cover the gap would mean that confidence is still not here yet. If it happens, wait. Remember after hitting the bottom, prices will consolidate. So rather buy at a higher price with positive technical indicators than lower price with too many unknown factors.
Today rebounded slightly, so I shall look at my holdings in particular
CFD:
AdvSCT-
Chart Analysis
- Today's the price patterns show that buying sentiment is not strong enough to push.
- Increasing volume seem more promising though
- Momentum has dried for the moment as MACD is rather flat
- MFI has shown a decline
Verdict
It has been going on strongly for the past few days and while overall indicators are still promising, we are experiencing a bit of a pullback. Most probably mild and it won't be surprising if it drops back to $1.02 by end of the week.
Course of Actions (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
- 1. Price drop to $1.01 --> Top up using CFD as second Tier
- 1. Price increase to $1.20 this week --> Sell for profit taking
- 2. Price drop to $0.985 --> Top up using CFD for third Tier
- 3. Price drop to $0.950 --> A sharp cut in EMA and with sharp drop in MFI and MACD would trigger a sell (Can't quantify it as of now)
- 3. EMA cut down trigger --> Will sell regardless of loss (This is my fundamental cut loss trigger)
Cash:
AsiaEnv-
Chart Analysis
- Price charts promising as of yesterday's rebound. Signify that selling power is rather weak
- Decreasing volume on a down trend shows that the selling is decreasing. This signifies that a change in trend is possible
- MFI looks poised for a rebound
- 26d EMA and 12dEMA are closing in showing either a possible down trend or bounce off support, though the latter is more likely due to other supporting indicators
- MACD however, still shows weakness and has not shown any recovery
Verdict Most indicators shows that consolidation period is coming to an end, with the exception of the MACD indicators. Tomorrow will be a good day to buy. Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007) - 1. A price queue of $0.68 would be pushing it. Depends on sentiment, if Dow closes badly, will queue at $0.67 (maximum 6 bids regulation), else will queue at $0.685-$0.69 for my Tier 3.
- 1. A price of $0.78 by this week will warrant some profit taking
- 2. As the EMA cut is gentle in nature, it does not necessarily mean that its a down trend, it just signifies the continual of consolidation. A price of $0.65 will cause the Tier 4 (CFD) to be loaded.
- 2. A price of $0.635 will trigger a cut loss signal
PacAndes-
Chart Analysis
- Strong rebound indicates that selling pressure has hit its limits.
- Similar to AsiaEnv, which I have been comparing to recently, volume decreases with down trend signifies a consolidation of a bull run
- Remarkably, the all indicators with the exception of MFI is similar to AsiaEnv
- MFI has rebounded instead of showing potential signs of rebounding.
Verdict
Rebounding strongly, and showing decreasing selling pressure, it all points to a good rebound. Will buy tomorrow.
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
- 1. Depending on the close of Dow today, a gain in Dow would mean that the buying price will be $0.805. if Dow don't do well, I could actually try $0.795
- 1. Surge in price will not warrant a profit taking as I only have 1 portion of shares
- 2. EMA cut is not an isse. The reason is the same as in asiaEnv
- 2. Price of $0.785 will warrant a buy order for third and final tier
ChinaAOil-
Chart Analysis - Decreasing volume with decreasing price means consolidation in bull run
- Sellers are decreasing
- Volatility is decreasing
- MFI shows a reversal
- MACD doesn't indicate a reversal
Verdict Might be a good price to buy. However, not as confident as asiaEnv and pacAndes. This is a pricey stock and I do not have enough for three tiers. Will queue at the support though Course of Action (23rd Octboer 2007 to 26th October 2007) - 1. Buy at around $2.7 for tier 2
- 1. Don't buy at any price higher than $2.72 as consolidation might be stretched
- 2. Trigger loss is at $2.55
- 2. No profit taking as current holding is a first tier stock
FerroChina-
Chart Analysis
- Weak recovery today. Little conviction to push up the price
- Decreasing volume with price means that it is undergoing consolidation
- MACD doesnt show indication of any reversal
- MFI has bounced of it "low" though
Verdict
Similar to CAO, this is showing some form of consolidation. This unlike CAO, seems fake. Gapped down trades 3 days ago brought to me that the seller might be trying to push for more selling. The least convincing among my other counters. I will be queuing but I wont be getting any at a premium as of now. I wouldn't mind buying higher if a reversal in trend is confirmed
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 27th Octover 2007)
- 1. Buy 2nd Tier at most $2.44 only. Will not pay more as of 23rd October
- 1. No profit taking as I do not have many holdings
- 2. Smooth cutting of EMA is not indicative of a down trend. Unable to tell if its smooth at the moment but will cut if its an abrupt drop and it cuts EMAs
- 3. Tier three buying would have to be funded by sales of other counters but this scenario will happen if EMA smoothens. Price to buy will be around $2.30
Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
