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| Monday, November 19, 2007 |
| Recent Trade Losses |
I have decided to cut on my trades. It is a painful decision and I will discuss about the issues in the later posts. CFD: OKP buy price: 0.775 OKP sell price: 0.690 Profit/Loss: -54.83% CASH: CAO buy price: 2.67 (Ave) CAO sell price: 2.122 (Ave) Profit/Loss: -20.5% FerroChina buy price: 2.505 (Ave) FerroChina sell price: 2.25 (Ave) Profit/Loss: -10.17% PacAndes buy price: 0.8225 (Ave) PacAndes sell price: 0.685 (Ave) Profit/Loss: -16.71% Labels: ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
posted by Nenix @ 4:14 PM   |
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| Wednesday, October 24, 2007 |
| Actions I took on 24th October 2007 |
Below is the summary of the course of actions for today. This is taken from the previous post. To all readers, I know at the moment, this is a bit disorganized and I will sort this Scenario Analysis out in the future. Anyway, to make a brief explanation of the steps, step 1 signifies the possible scenarios that might happen and my course of action. Step 2 is a level deeper than that and etc. I wanted to write out a documentation for it but due to lack of time, I feel this is the best method to remind myself not to make impulsive buys (My ideal of documentation will have valuation based on surface technicals and fundamentals, with a more detailed analysis of both schools in part 2, followed by the course of actions [This step is important as I tend to be impulsive in both buying and selling]) Anyway, the actions I took will be in blue fonts. And the red wordings are comments of my actions
Cash: AsiaEnv-
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
1. A price queue of $0.68 would be pushing it. Depends on sentiment, if Dow closes badly, will queue at $0.67 (maximum 6 bids regulation), else will queue at $0.685-$0.69 for my Tier 3.
*Tier 3 is loaded at 0.695. Not exactly to plan though. $0.695 based on sentiment today, is a good price. However, should I be more patient with my third tier? Maybe I should, but now what I'm left is the ultra short term Tier 4, which is powered by CFD.
1. A price of $0.78 by this week will warrant some profit taking
2. As the EMA cut is gentle in nature, it does not necessarily mean that its a down trend, it just signifies the continual of consolidation. A price of $0.65 will cause the Tier 4 (CFD) to be loaded.
2. A price of $0.635 will trigger a cut loss signal
PacAndes-
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
1. Depending on the close of Dow today, a gain in Dow would mean that the buying price will be $0.805. if Dow don't do well, I could actually try $0.795
*Tier 2 loaded at $0.81. As mentioned, this is a good price to enter based on sentiment today. If you try to understand how the market reacts, sometimes good sentiments will drive the prices up. Sentiment is definitely a catalyst.
1. Surge in price will not warrant a profit taking as I only have 1 portion of shares
2. EMA cut is not an isse. The reason is the same as in asiaEnv
2. Price of $0.785 will warrant a buy order for third and final tier
ChinaAOil-
Course of Action (23rd Octboer 2007 to 26th October 2007)
1. Buy at around $2.7 for tier 2
1. Don't buy at any price higher than $2.72 as consolidation might be stretched
*Queued at $2.72, which I manage to buy in the end
2. Trigger loss is at $2.55
2. No profit taking as current holding is a first tier stock
FerroChina-
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 27th Octover 2007)
1. Buy 2nd Tier at most $2.44 only. Will not pay more as of 23rd October
*Bought at $2.44. Maybe at a high price, but prices have reached the bottom already.
1. No profit taking as I do not have many holdings
2. Smooth cutting of EMA is not indicative of a down trend. Unable to tell if its smooth at the moment but will cut if its an abrupt drop and it cuts EMAs
3. Tier three buying would have to be funded by sales of other counters but this scenario will happen if EMA smoothens. Price to buy will be around $2.30Labels: AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:46 AM |
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| Tuesday, October 23, 2007 |
| Actions I might take tomorrow |
What if it rebounds slightly?
So what happpens if prices rebounds slightly today? A weak increase which do not cover the gap would mean that confidence is still not here yet. If it happens, wait. Remember after hitting the bottom, prices will consolidate. So rather buy at a higher price with positive technical indicators than lower price with too many unknown factors.
Today rebounded slightly, so I shall look at my holdings in particular
CFD:
AdvSCT-
Chart Analysis
- Today's the price patterns show that buying sentiment is not strong enough to push.
- Increasing volume seem more promising though
- Momentum has dried for the moment as MACD is rather flat
- MFI has shown a decline
Verdict
It has been going on strongly for the past few days and while overall indicators are still promising, we are experiencing a bit of a pullback. Most probably mild and it won't be surprising if it drops back to $1.02 by end of the week.
Course of Actions (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
- 1. Price drop to $1.01 --> Top up using CFD as second Tier
- 1. Price increase to $1.20 this week --> Sell for profit taking
- 2. Price drop to $0.985 --> Top up using CFD for third Tier
- 3. Price drop to $0.950 --> A sharp cut in EMA and with sharp drop in MFI and MACD would trigger a sell (Can't quantify it as of now)
- 3. EMA cut down trigger --> Will sell regardless of loss (This is my fundamental cut loss trigger)
Cash:
AsiaEnv-
Chart Analysis
- Price charts promising as of yesterday's rebound. Signify that selling power is rather weak
- Decreasing volume on a down trend shows that the selling is decreasing. This signifies that a change in trend is possible
- MFI looks poised for a rebound
- 26d EMA and 12dEMA are closing in showing either a possible down trend or bounce off support, though the latter is more likely due to other supporting indicators
- MACD however, still shows weakness and has not shown any recovery
Verdict Most indicators shows that consolidation period is coming to an end, with the exception of the MACD indicators. Tomorrow will be a good day to buy. Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007) - 1. A price queue of $0.68 would be pushing it. Depends on sentiment, if Dow closes badly, will queue at $0.67 (maximum 6 bids regulation), else will queue at $0.685-$0.69 for my Tier 3.
- 1. A price of $0.78 by this week will warrant some profit taking
- 2. As the EMA cut is gentle in nature, it does not necessarily mean that its a down trend, it just signifies the continual of consolidation. A price of $0.65 will cause the Tier 4 (CFD) to be loaded.
- 2. A price of $0.635 will trigger a cut loss signal
PacAndes-
Chart Analysis
- Strong rebound indicates that selling pressure has hit its limits.
- Similar to AsiaEnv, which I have been comparing to recently, volume decreases with down trend signifies a consolidation of a bull run
- Remarkably, the all indicators with the exception of MFI is similar to AsiaEnv
- MFI has rebounded instead of showing potential signs of rebounding.
Verdict
Rebounding strongly, and showing decreasing selling pressure, it all points to a good rebound. Will buy tomorrow.
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
- 1. Depending on the close of Dow today, a gain in Dow would mean that the buying price will be $0.805. if Dow don't do well, I could actually try $0.795
- 1. Surge in price will not warrant a profit taking as I only have 1 portion of shares
- 2. EMA cut is not an isse. The reason is the same as in asiaEnv
- 2. Price of $0.785 will warrant a buy order for third and final tier
ChinaAOil-
Chart Analysis - Decreasing volume with decreasing price means consolidation in bull run
- Sellers are decreasing
- Volatility is decreasing
- MFI shows a reversal
- MACD doesn't indicate a reversal
Verdict Might be a good price to buy. However, not as confident as asiaEnv and pacAndes. This is a pricey stock and I do not have enough for three tiers. Will queue at the support though Course of Action (23rd Octboer 2007 to 26th October 2007) - 1. Buy at around $2.7 for tier 2
- 1. Don't buy at any price higher than $2.72 as consolidation might be stretched
- 2. Trigger loss is at $2.55
- 2. No profit taking as current holding is a first tier stock
FerroChina-
Chart Analysis
- Weak recovery today. Little conviction to push up the price
- Decreasing volume with price means that it is undergoing consolidation
- MACD doesnt show indication of any reversal
- MFI has bounced of it "low" though
Verdict
Similar to CAO, this is showing some form of consolidation. This unlike CAO, seems fake. Gapped down trades 3 days ago brought to me that the seller might be trying to push for more selling. The least convincing among my other counters. I will be queuing but I wont be getting any at a premium as of now. I wouldn't mind buying higher if a reversal in trend is confirmed
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 27th Octover 2007)
- 1. Buy 2nd Tier at most $2.44 only. Will not pay more as of 23rd October
- 1. No profit taking as I do not have many holdings
- 2. Smooth cutting of EMA is not indicative of a down trend. Unable to tell if its smooth at the moment but will cut if its an abrupt drop and it cuts EMAs
- 3. Tier three buying would have to be funded by sales of other counters but this scenario will happen if EMA smoothens. Price to buy will be around $2.30
Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:58 PM |
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| Wednesday, October 17, 2007 |
| Good recovery but.. |
Good recovery, but we should still be cautious. Even if it was a price shock yesterday, one shouldn't take off the fact that the market is currently very weak. Our market at the moment is reluctant to move. For today, I hesitated reentering CAO at 2.61. I think I won't be able to get at such a price, but CAO will consolidate. In fact, very seldom do you see stocks still continuing its course after one day of sharp fall.
My strategy is to keep more cash available at the moment and wait for the dust to settle. To me, what is most important is capital preservation. Today, I have loaded some FerroChina @ 2.57 and I will relook the situation tonight to see if I will load in some positions tomorrow. Most importantly, I need to have cash to ready myself. Furthermore, I will now limit my holdings to at most 7, excluding MMP, STI ETF and Gold.
P.S This reminded me of the dead cat bounce few months back and I think I will be more vigilant this time round.Labels: FerroChina |
| posted by Nenix @ 4:39 PM |
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| Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
| Correction and beyond? |
"All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. "
Seems like I was spot on. While only a few had hit my EP, I've decided to clear my trading positions. I believe that macro conditions do play an important role, with the rocketing oil prices, China inflationary bubble waiting to burst, US inflation/subprime issues still lingering, it seems that at this point of time, if 3 of these issues were to pop, or bull run, if any, will be pushed back. At the moment, I'm neither bear nor bull, put I feel that safe guarding the capital is more important. No matter what, the market wont run away and there will always be opportunities to invest/trade. But without capital, or if capital is stuck, you can do nothing about it.
To me, there is a difference between broad based correction and dips in individual counters. With broad based correction, every good news will have little or no effect. It's like trying to go against the wave. For inidvidual dips, we look at the consolidation and surge of inidividual counters. At this moment, as the macro sentiment might change suddenly, the TA for individual stocks have to be cast aside.
Right now, the more sensible thing is to try to find the bottom with small positions. After which, when the dust settles, then consolidate your holdings for the next run. That is if there is a correction. However, if there isn't then just enter the positions again. Transaction fees are the costs of keeping the integrity of you capital.
Anyway. with the exception of MiddleEastD, I have cleared all my trading positions.
Rotary @ 1.38
OKP @ 0.82
Ferrochina @ 2.64
Wheelock @ 2.66
Soilbuild @ 1.34
advSCT @ 0.96
CAO @ 2.79
AsiaEnv @ 0.69
TiongWoon @ 1.08
Federal @ 0.81
FJBen @ 0.88
Swissco @ 1.34
After selling those, my fund price dropped to $1.49 while the market just retracecd 2cents to $1.58. I am now $0.09 behind the market. Anyway, now that I'm sidelined and full of cash, I could start to cherry pick. I will most prob load up on CAO, Ferrochina, maybe Tathong, TW, and OKP once it goes lower. We shall see how it goes tomorrowLabels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:01 PM |
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| Monday, October 15, 2007 |
| Technical Update on my Portfolio |
Haha.. I'm a bit embarrassed by my large portfolio. Anyway, I do not have the opportunity to reduce my portfolio. Maybe, this week, I might hit some of the triggers, which will give me reason to either cut loss or profit take. Anyway, this is a technical update on my counters. Note that the month of October is historically bad, so sentiment is not optimistic. Furthermore, with the FOMC meeting around the corner, most investors will be on the sidelines. Profit taking should not be seen as abnormal.
AdvSCT
- Overbought region in the MFI indicates that some time is needed for consolidation
- Low volume reinforces the fact that most are waiting on the sidelines
- Parabolic SAR indicates a downtrend at the moment
- MACD indicates that the upward momentum as ended and it might swing downwards. Extent of downward swing cannot be determined
- Narrowing price range indicates that consolidation period is ending.
Verdict: Direction points towards consolidation which is understandable but consolidation might end earlier than expected. Most indicators point towards a quiet week for advSCT.
AsiaEnv
- MFI indicates consoliation
- MACD indicates that upward momentum is nearing an end/has ended
- Decreasing volume with decreasing price indicates consolidation
- Support at $0.725 is weak and will test $0.66 if broken.
Verdict: This is a severely traded stock and TA could be taken out of the window. From insider trades, our respectable UBS trades frequently around 3000 lots. From past few days, we saw one lotters pressing down the price. We can see where these big boys are going, pressing it down, then pushing it up, selling to ignorant people, then pressing it down again. Well, what we can do is to hold on and not panic. But on technical terms, consolidation has just started.
Boustead
- Consolidation for about 2 weeks already
- Reaching oversold region
Verdict: The is the exact opposite of AsiaEnv. It is so illiquid that no one knows how to play it. Prices should move soon and for illiquid stocks we will see faster price surges. Nothing to worry about this counter.
ChinaAOil
- Going through a mild consolidation
- Nothing to be worried as it is on a positive uptrend.
Verdict: Ride and ennjoy the wave before it is too late.
Federal
- Recovering from consolidation
- MFI hits 50% mark
Verdict: Good time to enter now as it might be the start of the next short term uptrend
FerroChina
- Consolidation seems to be ending soon
- Price surge is very likely within the next 3 days
Verdict: Similar to CAO, just be patient and ride the wave.
FJBen
- Sudden weakness in price indicates that it might not be just a simple consolidation.
- Caution needed if one is to trade this counter
Verict: Be cautious on this counter despite its uptrend. Sentiments are not reacting naturally to this counter
FuJian
- In consolidation stage
- Decreasing volume suggests that this is consolidation in a bull run
- MACD showing selling momentum. Whether it is significant is still unknown.
Verdict: Be patient if you haven't entered the counter. Wait till Friday before loading the counters
Gold
- Uptrend
- Consolidation period has ended
Verdict: Long term counter. Just hold.
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend
Verdict: Just ride the wave as it looks like it still has lots of upside potential
MiddleEast
- Selldown should be a concern
- Consolidation is coming to an end. Direction of price movement will be significant in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Verdict: The long consolidation has reached its end, and the direction of the next move is dependent on the breakout.
MMP Reit
- Sideway traded
- Not much interest in buying up although it is very well supported.
- Such scenario will not last long as more people will try to make use of this scenario, making it non profitable. When that time comes, it has to go one direction, which is upwards
Verdict: Keep for long term, as it is more of a yield stock.
OKP
- Consolidation period ended earlier than expected
- Might be going on another run.
Verdict: Be careful though as indicators show that it is slightly stretched.
Rotary
- Broke down the 80% level of the MFI. Indication points to it being overbought.
- Consolidation will end this week unless major macro-economic issues kick in.
Verdict: Buy on dips as consolidation period will not last long.
Soilbuild
-Consolidation period just began
Verdict: Could buy on dips, but better to wait for better trend formation.
STI ETF
- Showing signs of stretching
- The highs don't seem to be sustainable
Verdict: Consolidation would be natural progression and it wont be surprised if we have a small consolidation/correction.
Swissco
- An unexpected end to consolidation
- Might have pending news or events that affects the sentiments positively.
Verdict: Ride the trend as usual
TiongWoon
- Trading sideways for some time already
- Consolidation period at the moment
Verdict: Consolidation is necessary for the trend to move. Be patient
Wheelock
- Conosolidation period is ending soon
- Property development counters are under radar at the moment and once they are noticed, the price will recover fast
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic about this counter.
All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. If you have counters before the index recovered, then I guess it would still be relatively safe to hold it. For me, my EPs are stated and I will stick to it.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, FuJianZY, Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:48 PM |
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| Wednesday, October 10, 2007 |
| Consolidating counters |
Like I said in the previous post, I am consolidating my counters to about 12. In this post, I will state those that are maxed and thus not possible to load in new positions.
CAO has relatively high risk rating and although I am holding a relatively small position, the risk far outweighs it and by calculation, I am full with this counter.
FerroChina has relatively high risk as well, and I am full with this counter.
Wheelock has least risk but I am holding too high a position for this. In fact, I overloaded as it exceeded my risk limit.
Slowly, I will consolidate my counteres if possible and will update when I do consolidateLabels: ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, Wheelock |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:39 AM |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 |
| Overal update on my holdings |
AsiaEnv
MidTerm perspective
- A reversal seems to be in place even though it is still unclear at this point if it is a temporary pullback.
- The 12w and the 26w EMA touches and it could be observed that midterm wise, it does not bode well as it soon going to trend downwards.
- However, recent signs have been positive with MACD improving and price surging
ShortTerm perspective
- What we see is that the dust has finally settled at around $0.60. The 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA, albeit its small magnitude.
- Thinning volume, coupled by a healthy SAR indicator, and improving MACD, with MFI increasing strength, all points to price surging upwards.
My take
- It is understandable that the drop in prices in the bigger picture displays a downtrend.
- However, strong readings from several indicators in the short term all points to a strong recovery. I will top up my holdings on this once it hits my buying trigger. At the moment, my finances are a little bit tight.
Boustead
MidTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5w, 12w, 26w EMA. Judging from the charts, the 5w EMA sits firmly above the 12w EMA
ShortTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5d, 12d, 26d EMA.
- Currently, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. This is an indication that it is experiencing a pullback.
- This can be observed by the drop in the MFI index, indicating a movement to weaker market strength.
- However, the important thing is that volume is extremely thin. Even for today's price drop to $2.28, only 1 lot has been done.
My take
- In the Mid-term perspective, things still look as good. On the shorter term though, it seems as the price is being pressured downwards. However, the volume is extremely thin and it could suggest that either there are strong hands are trying to push down the price so that indicators will indicate a selling sign or weak hands panic selling in this sort of volatile environment. I personally believe that it is the former as weak hands are most probably weeded out during the meltdown in mid-August.
- So it should still be a strong hold. Of cos, as my system is based on buy and sell triggers, it is likely that it could be forced down to my selling point. I will make my decision when it reaches that point.
ChinaAOil
MidTerm perspective
- Price movement suggests that it is undergoing a retracement. This is particularly attributed to the meltdown however, even before the meltdown, you could see the surge slowing down. At one time, it seems as though it might just drop down hitting a price of $1.78, however it recovered to the $2.38 range. - Indicators, in particular the SAR, shows that retracement will still continue and there are no signs of a reversal yet
ShortTerm perspective
- Short term however, we have seen prices trying to surge only to be halted due to overall market sentiment. - The 5d EMA and the 12d EMA seems to cross up soon though, coupled by decreasing volume, is an indication that a reversal might be coming sooner rather than later. - At the moment, the counter does not clearly show any direction, even though we are looking at lesser price ranges. My take
- From the midterm perspective, it is understandable that it retraces after a lengthy surge. The credit crisis certainly acts as a catalyst for the retracement. - From the short term perspective, it could be an indication to load up now as the thinning volume suggests that there will be a breakout in price soon. ChipEngSeng
MidTerm perspective
- Similar to CAO, it is currently showing a retracement chart.
- The uptrend is still intact with prices still at the support line.
- It might be testing to break $0.90 in the following weeks.
ShortTerm perspective
- SAR is still healthy even though the prices are trading at a level very near my selling trigger.
- CES is currently showing weakness in the very short term, with MACD and MFI all showing unfavorable readings.
- However, we could observe a few points in recent times. Firstly, price recovery since mid August has been strong and it is observed by huge volumes. Secondly, recent selldowns are in small volumes compared to those during the recovery period. This just means that this period is most probably a profit-taking period rather than a panic-selldown prelude. If you need to find a term for a price chart, it would be a "flag". According to books, this means that a breakout is imminent.
My take
- I need to reiterate that as trend followers, we DO NOT predict future prices. Thus, though I might predict that it might test $0.90 in following weeks, it does not mean that I have to buy based on that decisions. In fact, I bought at $0.93 one week ago. Regardless, the long term trend is still intact, thus there is not much worry to sell.
- Short term wise, as this is a top volume counter, we would expect to see lots of fluctuations. Trendlines bound to be whipsawed frequently.
- I have bought at $0.93 and my cutloss is at $0.805. My only regret is that I should refrain from entering this counter when it is top volume. Such volume often makes the indicators skewed. Anyway, my selling trigger is near. So depending on how things go, I might have to sell this soon.
CWT
MidTerm perspective
- Severly tested the 26w EMA. However, it recovers very quickly.
- This shows that this is a rather resilient counter. Needless to say, the uptrend is still intact.
ShortTerm perspective
- Very impressive. Its 5d EMA has cut both its 12d and 26d EMA.
- Price surge coupled by increased volume is a bullish indication.
- Short term uptrend firmly in place.
My take
- Both short term and middle term charts are amazingly bullish.
- Not a good time to enter now though as MFI seems to tread into overbought region soon.
- However, this stock might be a good counter by year end as it certainly seems to have the momentum to propel upwards.
Federal
MidTerm perspective
- Another stock bought due to amazing recovery. The chart is similar to CWT although it just tested the 12w EMA.
- Its Midterm retracement seems to be coming to an end soon, indicating that the uptrend will continue soon.
ShortTerm perspective
- Looks good as well due to its uptrend even though it seems that it will be trading at this price for sometime.
- Volume still hasn't thinned yet, indicating that there might be more upside within the next few days.
My take
- Just hold it. Like CWT, it doesn't show any apparent weakness in price movement yet.
FerroChina
MidTerm perspective
- Heavily battered counter during the correction
- However, it still has not break the 26w EMA
- It is at the moment trending sideways though as it recovers slowly from the correction.
ShortTerm perspective
- 5d EMA cuts the 12d EMA, thinning volume, converging prices, all leads to point out that it is recovering.
- Breakout seems imminent, even though I bought it when the EMA intersected.
My take
- Seems ok. I would say, this is similar to CAO in its huge surge. Thus it is understandable that it retraces.
- I would collect more if I had more finances.
FJBen
MidTerm perspective
- Broke the 26w EMA during correction but recovered strongly the following week. Indicates its resilience.
- Price converging in midterm horizon suggest that a breakout in price is imminent and it will set itself to trend in that direction.
ShortTerm perspective
- Thinning volume, trading sideways at the moment
- EMAs seems to converge (not a good thing)
My take
- Seems like it doesn't have momentum to propel it, even though signs are showing that there will be a surge soon, upwards or downwards.
- It is difficult at the moment as I feel most are sitted in the sidelines.
Part 2 to continue next time.....Labels: AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, ChipEngSeng, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:04 PM |
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| Friday, August 24, 2007 |
| 24th August Update |
As it is, my NDF has now gone below the STI index with NDF being $1.36 and STI being $1.38. If I have to point out any fault, it would have to be due to my ill discipline. Hesitation to cut loss and selling when I am not supposed to. Have I learned a lesson? Haha, sadly speaking, I didn't. This is because recently, I loaded more position based on "feel". I guess I got lured in by improving market sentiment, thus trying to preempt my buying signal. This time round, if I managed to survive, then I'm lucky, else I just have to bear with another wave of cut losses.
I bought some CAO @ $2.52, Ferrochina @ $1.95, OKP @ $0.68 and Lyxor China H @ $16.8. Anyway, after I reach home, I calculated the potential risk. To my astonishment, CAO, Ferrochina, OKP are very risky stocks with total cut loss amounting to 5% of my portfolio. That's not healthy. To breakdown, the cut loss is as follows:
MMP Reit: $0.998 - $1.07 (N.A as this is part of my 10% untouched funds)
STI ETF100: $32.226 (N.A as this is part of my 10% untouched funds)
AsiaEnv: $0.605 (N.A as the sales of this equity will be determined by my brother)
Lyxor ChinaH: US$15.796 (This is not part of the 10% untouched funds as purchase is based on
buying signals)
OKP: $0.554 (Cutloss point based on its volatility. I forgot about the fact that it has such high risk when I bought it)
CAO: $2.14 (same as above)
FerroChina: $1.64
As you can see, the cutloss is determined based on its volatility(risk). At the moment, this is the risk present and I now have to follow my cutloss. I realise its easier for me to cut loss than to refrain myself from buying unnecessarily.Labels: AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, LyxorChinaH, MMPReit, NenixDreams Fund, OKP, STI ETF100 |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:41 PM |
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| Wednesday, August 01, 2007 |
| Last bit of ammo |
Used my last bit of ammo on Ferrochina. Bought some at 2.35.
Cost averaged to about 2.58.
Just like playing RPGs, I think I used up my items way too fast. This is now testing times and I would not be suprised to see me cutting on my loss.
Hopefully I will find some "ammo crates" somehow.. hahaLabels: FerroChina |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:02 AM |
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| Tuesday, July 31, 2007 |
| 31st July 2007 update |
Today isn't a good day for me, all my holdings are down. I've decided to post my analysis and hopefully get something out of it.
Tiongwoon.
Trend
5d EMA has crossed the 26d EMA with the 12d EMA going closer to crossing the 26dEMA. Sell trigger is on situations whereby 12d EMA crosses the 26d EMA. Trend at the moment dont look good as it seems to be reversing soon or going through a possible long consolidation phase. One positive to note is that the volume transacted since May 2007 has been decreasing till today. With lesser volume, it could be interpreted that a breakout might be imminent.
I feel reversal can be observed tomorrow, even though it might be a weak one due to macro issues. Consolidation phase might be over soon due to diminishing volumes. The only issue is that the MAs might crossover, triggering my sell signal.
Momentum
Looking quite awful and it should be the same for the majority of stocks. It showed indication of a pullback last Thursday before the selldown on Friday. There might be a possibility that contra players at this point burnt themselves with today being the "Force Selling" day. Judging from momentum, it does not seem to be over yet.
Market Strength
The MFI shows that it is falling and there are no indication of a turnaround.
Overall Verdict
Trend looks ok, even though it is close to selling signal. One thing to take comfort is from the decreasing volume since May. Momentum and Market is strength is understandably weak due to uncertainty in global markets. I will hold till tomorrow at least before making any decisions.
OKP
Trend
Since mid-July, it has already begun its consolidation state, so there is nothing much to worry about. Again, thinning of volume traded can be observed. This shows that not much shares are changing hands. This might mean that no one is willing to sell, at least at this low price. I have no idea when this consolidation will end, but I am quite confident that this trend will remain intact.
Momentum
Awful looking, but its within expectation
Market Strength
The MFI shows that it is falling and there are no indication of a turnaround.
Overall Verdict
Everything regarding OKP(technicals) is still looking healthy. A consolidation/correction is essential so that shares fall in longer term investors. More people holding means lesser shares available to change hands. This will lead to higher demand and thus push the price further up.
FerroChina
Trend
The gap down is slightly worrisome. Trends are still intact even though like TW, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. Volume seems to be high these few days and it seems worrisome as well. Longer term trends still look ok and it will resume its upward movement soon.
Momentum
Turned bad recently and this might be the beginning.
Market Strength
The MFI has reached 50% even though 1 positive point is that it is not falling as sharply as previous days. It might have reached the bottom of the "selling"
Overall Verdict
Good long term trends, lousy short term ones. Heavy selling recently doesn't help its cause. Momentum just turned sour, with market strength reaching 50% mark. This might mean that I entered at the beginning of consolidation but it might be recovering due to neutral movement of MFI. I shall just wait and see.
ChinaAOil
Trend
Good uptrend overall, even though it is consolidating now.
Momentum
Maybe its due to macro conditions, but the full wave of the momentum is getting smaller and smaller. A bigger correction in CAO might be coming soon.
Market Strength
Being below 50%, it is in a more oversold territory. Its MFI movement is rather sideways, thus might mean that it might be reversing up.
Overall Verdict
Absolutely beautiful trend. However, as each increase in price is getting smaller, it can be deduced (my own guess) that a correction of a bigger magnitude for CAO might be coming soon. Maybe, it can touch $2. 70. and maybe at that point, my selling signal will trigger and I can liquidate this position.
BrightWorld
Trend
Good uptrend, this is one stock that my entry point is near the ideal point, thus capturing the whole "meat" of the trend. At the moment, trend still looks healthy. Volume still decreasing and my guess is accumulation is still in progress.
Momentum
The mini-bull run of this stock recently is going to come to an end soon. Afterwhich we might observe a period of consolidation.
Market Strength
Suprisingly, the MFI has beeen increasing and has hit 80%. If it manages to hit 80%, it will continue to surge up till the point its overbought.
Overall Verdict
Good trend on decreasing volume. Price might surge sooner rather than later and it is further supported by the MFI. MACD however is indicating that momentum has waned. Again, momentum might not be a good indicator now as most stocks have high selling momentum now.
Seksun
Trend
Catching it at the point after its surge at the end of a consolidation, it is always risky if I'm too late into the trend. Volume shows no indication of investors holding on and it can go either way, even though longer trend is healthy.
Momentum
Quite weak. Might be affected by the market on the whole.
Market Strength
MFI turned south, most prob due to the overal market sentiment.
Overall Verdict
Healthy trends but volume exchanged does not indicate well enough that it should go higher up. This view is reinforced by MFI, which is turning south and MACD, which is cutting the signal line soon. All I can say is that it is a good trending stock which is suppressed by negative market sentiments.
BioTreat
Trend
Re-entered due as it triggered my buying signal. Like Brightworld, this is my 2nd stock that I have entered based on my buying signal. Most of the stocks I have entered are rather late into the trend. Volume spike on 30th might be an indication of distribution. That's not good news if it happens so early in a reversal.
Momentum
Unfazed by the global selloff, it has good buying momentum.
Market Strength
MFI supports the whole uptrend as it approaches upwards towards the 80% mark.
Overall Verdict
Trend reversal plus breakout, even though the volume spike does make me cast my doubts. Hopefully its not those contra players as they will definitely inducce huge selling (thus pressing down the price) if things don't go their way.
Phew... finally, I'm done.. hopefully I wont be posting about my holdings tomorrow (this means that I'm not selling anything)Labels: Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, OKP, Seksun, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:07 PM |
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| Friday, July 20, 2007 |
| As strange as it might be.. |
A few days after closing most positions, I am now starting to load positions again. As strange as it might be, this is how this system works: Liquidation for capital preservation in shakeups and the join in again when the climb begins again. My thinking is that, no one can guarantee how long the market will fall and sometimes, if we wait till things are clear enough, it might be a bit too late. More often than not, it takes one mistake to wipe out all your gains. Maybe when I'm older and wiser, I will be able to see the markets clearly but for now, I'm just a novice.
Anyway, this shakeup does force me to liquidate the weaker stocks (AsiaEnv, MiddleEast, MapleTreeLog). Soilbuild is the only that clearly triggers the cut loss.
Back to purpose of this topic:
After building the base for mid-term stocks, I've went on with the next phase which is to accumulate for shorter term horizons (using CFD).
Loaded FerroChina @ $2.70
Loaded OKP @ $0.975
Loaded TiongWoon @ $1.15
I think to make things less complicated, I shall not cost average cash and cfd accounts since costs for both are significantly different.Labels: FerroChina, OKP, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:19 AM |
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| Thursday, July 19, 2007 |
| Mid-term horizon |
Loaded some stocks for the middle-term horizon now that I have available cash.
Currently my base stocks consists of CAO, BrightWorld and the almost written of MDR.
Today, I've added to this base of mid-term stocks by buying TiongWoon @ $1.08, OKP @ 0.94 and FerroChina @ $2.63. Risks for calculating mid-term stocks are more difficult from a technical standpoint as I cannot rely on short term cut-loss triggers. Maybe weekly indicators will solve this issue, will analyze more data before coming to a decision. But I feel weekly data should suffice as corrections seldom lasts more than 1 month. 3 consecutive down weeks might indicate a reversal but its MA might not be affected much.Labels: FerroChina, OKP, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:28 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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