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| Thursday, April 26, 2007 |
| Profit taking |
As mentioned from before,
RafflesEdu has hit my trigger point, As reluctant as I am, I closed positions at $2.25 at a -3% returns.
Golden Agri has shown signs of reversal too. Triggering my Capital Preservation Level (CPL), position is closed at $2.55 at a +46.55% returns.
Have loaded on NobleGroup@1.67, AsiaEnv@$0.81. Both shows good trends and especially for NobleGrp
Below will be a list of my holdings and their exit/cut loss triggers
CAO: CPL at $1.46
NobleGrp: Cut loss at $1.56
AsiaEnv: Cut loss at $0.74
Rotary: CPL at $0.99
Ho Bee: CPL at $2.30
Bio Treat: Cut loss at $0.78
To Do List:
- For tomorrow, the stock to note is CAO as its closing price is near to its CPL.
- I might load more Ho Bee as RSI is going towards high market strength.
- Reducing position size on Rotary?
Reflections:
Golden Agri was a good ride, but because of Olam's case, I have implemented this new gimmick called CPL. Afterwhich, I realise that Golden Agri's trigger point was at $2.65. So today's position close was a clear cut decision.
However, one thing to note is that exiting the position does not mean that I will not come back, it basically means I am just out of it at the moment.
The difference between greed(negative characteristics), riding profits(trading strategy), capital preservations (positive characteristics) is so small that sometimes, you think you are riding profits, but in actual fact, I'm just greedy. Sometimes, I close positions to preserve capital and it might be seen as deviating from the strategy of riding the profits.
Abstract stuff I feel, but its necessary to address them.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, GoldenAgri, NobleGroup, RafflesEdu |
posted by Nenix @ 7:24 PM   |
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| Wednesday, April 25, 2007 |
| Olam "grounded" |
Olam hit the trigger and I sold it for $3.12:
8% returns:
Lessons to learn:
Should have a Capital Preservation Rating so that profits won't erode: Though it might preserve profits, it can break me out of the trend, which is not "riding the profits". A possible implementation.
Weakness of MA:
Realized that for big trend climbers have this weakness: as it climbs longer, the divergence will spread. Sometimes, it spreads so wide that waiting for price to cut down before selling is already too late. I tried using shorter duration EMAs to compensate for this but it doesnt seem to work. Other measures have to be taken for exit strategies I suppose, as lagging gets worse on a power trend.
Other holdings:
Sales of Raffles Edu tommorow
Test out capital preservation method tomorrow on golden agri:Labels: GoldenAgri, Olam, RafflesEdu |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:10 PM |
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| Monday, April 23, 2007 |
| 23rd April 2007 |
Well well, today is a weird day. Most of my stocks hit a high which is a new high, but then closes much lower.
CAO
- Going through a consolidation phase in my opinion
- SAR shows reversal in trend (secondary)
- MACD diverge downwards
- RSI still healthy though
- Volume traded decreases, which might be an indication that the accumulation is coming to an end
- Verdict: Still vested and nothing to worry about
Golden Agri
- SAR close to reversal
- MACD going to touch and diverge soon
- RSI is still too high, so its expected that it will fall
- Fall in volume today might be a sign of accumulation
- Verdict: Vested however, will keep close tabs on it
Ho Bee
- SAR close to reversing back to uptrend
- MACD still diverging downwards
- RSI goes below 50% indicating a slightly weak market
- Verdict: Vested, keep close tabs on it, might increase stake on it depending on its strength of the trend
Olam
- Very resilient, seems close to reversing, but still doing ok
- Should be reversing downwards soon
- Verdict: Vested, and nothing much to worry about
Raffles Edu
- Going down at the moment
- All indicators pointing south
- EMA cut will soon trigger the sales of this equity
- Verdict: Might not be vested by Wednesday. Much is dependent on tomorrow's result.
Rotary
- Might be going up again.
- Nothing has changed much since last trading day
- Verdict: Vested and will be patientLabels: ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:28 PM |
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| Thursday, April 19, 2007 |
| Red Sea Fishing |
As expected, Ascott hit the trigger. Due to CFD, exposure to risk is higher, that is the reason why loss have to be cut ASAP. Sold at 1.70.
Another red flag is Raffles Eductaion. Not as bad as ascott as it's not a CFD item. However, I should keep an eye tomorrow.
Rotary another CFD, brings up some concern. As my positions are bought in progressively, costs incurred for rolling the contract is getting huge. I am now considering selling and then buying again so that CFD transaction costs will be minimized in the future. This might prove a good time to sell as prices might fall for a while.
Does this move contradict my style? Maybe. but this is for the sake of minimizing transaction costs.
My price fell $0.06 to $1.34 while STI fell to $1.35.
Possible reasons:
1) The CFD rolling charges are being significant
-> Consider "Rebalancing" the CFD accounts to minimize transactions costs.
2) Selection should be more stringent. Letting the cash lie there is better than just hopping on a uptrending stock
-> degree of trending and volume should be taken into consideration
HoBee taking a breather. All should be ok despite the negative short term trends
Olam has finally stopped its move and taking a break. Would most probably show negative short term trends too. I will most probably ignore short term trends. The tricky part is to differentiate secondary and primary downtrend.
CAO has slowed down too..
Golden Agri will follow suit too..Labels: Ascott, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:39 PM |
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| Tuesday, April 17, 2007 |
| 17April2007 |
My gap with STI is narrowed to a difference of 0.01.
Ascott dropped to $1.75. It doesn't help when its cut loss point is below my buying point.
- The MACD line touched the signal line from above, might indicate a secondary downtrend
- RSI has gone below the overbought area and close to the 50% mark. An indication of selling presence.
- The parabolic Stop and Reverse might be touching the price soon. (an indication that a down trend will follow)
- Overall indication are showing signs of a downtrend(most probably a secondary one). The main deciding factor, which is the moving average still healthy (didn't evaluate it based on my criteria due to the fact I'm revising for exams. So its eyeballs for now)
ChinaAviationOil dropped to $1.53. Similar to Ascott, CAO seems to be taking a breather after the recent surge.
- MACD is slightly below the signal line although not by much. Can see from the lack of momentum at this moment. Most probably people are accumulating at the moment.
- RSI showed that market strength dropped back to reasonable range after being in the overbought zone for a while.
- Parabolic SAR seems to approach the price as well. It is normal as every price chart goes up and down. This is just an indicator to show the possibility of reversal in trend.
-Trend is firmly up, no questions about it.
Golden Agriculture dropped again to $2.72. Similar to CAO, due to its meteoric rise, it is understandable. If we use Fibonacci lines, a possible support line could be at $2.50. I don't really believe in that though.
- MACD is showing signs of convergence.
- RSI is still overbought
- Par SAR still some distance
Stock might continue to slide but these are just indicators. Decision will still be based on the price trends, which is still healthy.
Ho Bee is currently undergoing some down trend. I decided not to do anything as its nothing serious and I do not want to incur transaction costs unnecessarily.
- Indicators are similar to golden agriculture except the part in which Par SAR has already been flipped.
Olam dropped to $3.46. This is a strong stock in my opinion. Trend is strong and there is no indication of an obvious retracement. During the correction, Olam, along with CAO and golden Agri, were not seriously affected. This might mean that investors there are unlike me..(haha). Nothing but praise for this stock.
RafflesEdu's price increase to $2.44. The slow mover of the lot (along with Ascott), its main purpose is to ensure that I have some growth in my portfolio as it is rising slow and steady. Watching grass grow might be more interesting than watching this stock.
-MACD indicates no momentum
- RSI shows slightly strong market
- Par SAR still way off to "flipping"
Patience is the key.
Rotary rose today to $1.06. Might be because of the $34mil news. Maybe the price is factored into it already. I entered more positions today, increasing my average to $0.968.
All indicators are healthy. No point saying more.
All in all, today is a breather day for most of my holdings.. Patience is the key, and don't bee too rash (itchy fingers) like before.
Cheers all!Labels: Ascott, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:25 PM |
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| Monday, April 02, 2007 |
| April 2nd |
What a day.. I'm burnt out due to school work.. and when I reached home.. i saw HoBee zoomed up again. Rotary finally moved after the long wait.. Others are not worth mentioning as they are still at where they are.
Guess for this month, I'll update once a week.. too tired...Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:45 PM |
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| Saturday, March 31, 2007 |
| Bright closing to the quarter |
As the quarter draws to a close, things seems to look brighter now.
Ascott, which was a moderately risky buy, was at 1.71 upon close from a buy price of 1.67.
ChinaAviation oil, which broke out, yet has little volatility, was at a price of 1.53, from a buy price of 1.15.
CDL HTrust, which was a moderately risk buy as well, was at 1.99 upon close from a buy price of 2.05.
Hobee, a buy at 1.87, is now trading at 2.26.
RafflesEducation, a buy at 2.34, is lingering around 2.31
Olam, a buy at 2.87, is now at 3.06. wonder if it will hit the previous high of 3.30 soon
GoldenAgri, a buy at 1.74, is now at 1.76. One of the unfazed stocks during the correction, it is now growing steadily.
Rotary, a buy at 0.925 after recent averaging, is now trading at a price of 0.93.
All seems well at the moment, but "everything is a lie until it is realized". So at the moment, all these paper profits have no bearings on me.Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:50 AM |
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| Friday, March 23, 2007 |
| 23rd March Updates |
It has been an experience since the past few weeks. Sudden price slides, panic etc etc comes into picture. So much for trying to keep myself emotionally detached.
From the correction, i was a loser. I sold when there isn't a need to. KepT&T was the stock to be exact. BanyanTree was within my stop loss limit, so it's all within the plan even though it was a wrong choice to sell.
This week proves to be an ok week for me, with various mixed results.
Ascott, which I bought at $1.67 closes at $1.63.
- Rating: 6
- Need to be slightly cautious though
CDL HTrust, which I bought at $2.05 closes at $1.95
- Rating: 6
- Some of the indicators are at moderate level
ChinaAviationOil, which I bought at $1.15 closes at $1.34
- Rating: 8
- Strong breakout at my buying price and strong indicator support justifies a potential runner for the year
GoldenAgri, which I bought at $1.74 closes at $1.75
- Rating: 7
- This together with CAO, are the two stocks in my portfolio with the least risk.
- Slow but steady runner.
HoBee, which I bought at $1.86 closes at $1.94
- Rating: 8
- A healthy chart, with moderate risk rating.
Olam, which I bought at $2.87 closes at $3.02
- Rating: 8
- One of the higher risk rating stocks in my portfolio, along with RafflesEdu and Rotary
RafflesEdu, which I bought at $2.34 closes at $2.30
- Rating: 7
- It exhibits similar charting characteristics as Olam.
Rotary, which I bought at averaged $0.919 closes at $0.91
- Rating: 7
- Might not have movement anytime sooner.
Thats all for this week, and hope I have time to update next week. Academic exams and project deadlines are coming soon.. Another obstacle waiting to be beaten!Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:19 PM |
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| Sunday, March 11, 2007 |
| Purchase on recovery |
Bought Genting International @ $0.88
Bought Golden Agriculture @ $1.74
Bought Raffles Education @ 2.34Labels: GenInt, GoldenAgri, RafflesEdu |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:09 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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