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| Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
| Correction and beyond? |
"All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. "
Seems like I was spot on. While only a few had hit my EP, I've decided to clear my trading positions. I believe that macro conditions do play an important role, with the rocketing oil prices, China inflationary bubble waiting to burst, US inflation/subprime issues still lingering, it seems that at this point of time, if 3 of these issues were to pop, or bull run, if any, will be pushed back. At the moment, I'm neither bear nor bull, put I feel that safe guarding the capital is more important. No matter what, the market wont run away and there will always be opportunities to invest/trade. But without capital, or if capital is stuck, you can do nothing about it.
To me, there is a difference between broad based correction and dips in individual counters. With broad based correction, every good news will have little or no effect. It's like trying to go against the wave. For inidvidual dips, we look at the consolidation and surge of inidividual counters. At this moment, as the macro sentiment might change suddenly, the TA for individual stocks have to be cast aside.
Right now, the more sensible thing is to try to find the bottom with small positions. After which, when the dust settles, then consolidate your holdings for the next run. That is if there is a correction. However, if there isn't then just enter the positions again. Transaction fees are the costs of keeping the integrity of you capital.
Anyway. with the exception of MiddleEastD, I have cleared all my trading positions.
Rotary @ 1.38
OKP @ 0.82
Ferrochina @ 2.64
Wheelock @ 2.66
Soilbuild @ 1.34
advSCT @ 0.96
CAO @ 2.79
AsiaEnv @ 0.69
TiongWoon @ 1.08
Federal @ 0.81
FJBen @ 0.88
Swissco @ 1.34
After selling those, my fund price dropped to $1.49 while the market just retracecd 2cents to $1.58. I am now $0.09 behind the market. Anyway, now that I'm sidelined and full of cash, I could start to cherry pick. I will most prob load up on CAO, Ferrochina, maybe Tathong, TW, and OKP once it goes lower. We shall see how it goes tomorrowLabels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
posted by Nenix @ 7:01 PM   |
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| Monday, October 15, 2007 |
| Technical Update on my Portfolio |
Haha.. I'm a bit embarrassed by my large portfolio. Anyway, I do not have the opportunity to reduce my portfolio. Maybe, this week, I might hit some of the triggers, which will give me reason to either cut loss or profit take. Anyway, this is a technical update on my counters. Note that the month of October is historically bad, so sentiment is not optimistic. Furthermore, with the FOMC meeting around the corner, most investors will be on the sidelines. Profit taking should not be seen as abnormal.
AdvSCT
- Overbought region in the MFI indicates that some time is needed for consolidation
- Low volume reinforces the fact that most are waiting on the sidelines
- Parabolic SAR indicates a downtrend at the moment
- MACD indicates that the upward momentum as ended and it might swing downwards. Extent of downward swing cannot be determined
- Narrowing price range indicates that consolidation period is ending.
Verdict: Direction points towards consolidation which is understandable but consolidation might end earlier than expected. Most indicators point towards a quiet week for advSCT.
AsiaEnv
- MFI indicates consoliation
- MACD indicates that upward momentum is nearing an end/has ended
- Decreasing volume with decreasing price indicates consolidation
- Support at $0.725 is weak and will test $0.66 if broken.
Verdict: This is a severely traded stock and TA could be taken out of the window. From insider trades, our respectable UBS trades frequently around 3000 lots. From past few days, we saw one lotters pressing down the price. We can see where these big boys are going, pressing it down, then pushing it up, selling to ignorant people, then pressing it down again. Well, what we can do is to hold on and not panic. But on technical terms, consolidation has just started.
Boustead
- Consolidation for about 2 weeks already
- Reaching oversold region
Verdict: The is the exact opposite of AsiaEnv. It is so illiquid that no one knows how to play it. Prices should move soon and for illiquid stocks we will see faster price surges. Nothing to worry about this counter.
ChinaAOil
- Going through a mild consolidation
- Nothing to be worried as it is on a positive uptrend.
Verdict: Ride and ennjoy the wave before it is too late.
Federal
- Recovering from consolidation
- MFI hits 50% mark
Verdict: Good time to enter now as it might be the start of the next short term uptrend
FerroChina
- Consolidation seems to be ending soon
- Price surge is very likely within the next 3 days
Verdict: Similar to CAO, just be patient and ride the wave.
FJBen
- Sudden weakness in price indicates that it might not be just a simple consolidation.
- Caution needed if one is to trade this counter
Verict: Be cautious on this counter despite its uptrend. Sentiments are not reacting naturally to this counter
FuJian
- In consolidation stage
- Decreasing volume suggests that this is consolidation in a bull run
- MACD showing selling momentum. Whether it is significant is still unknown.
Verdict: Be patient if you haven't entered the counter. Wait till Friday before loading the counters
Gold
- Uptrend
- Consolidation period has ended
Verdict: Long term counter. Just hold.
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend
Verdict: Just ride the wave as it looks like it still has lots of upside potential
MiddleEast
- Selldown should be a concern
- Consolidation is coming to an end. Direction of price movement will be significant in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Verdict: The long consolidation has reached its end, and the direction of the next move is dependent on the breakout.
MMP Reit
- Sideway traded
- Not much interest in buying up although it is very well supported.
- Such scenario will not last long as more people will try to make use of this scenario, making it non profitable. When that time comes, it has to go one direction, which is upwards
Verdict: Keep for long term, as it is more of a yield stock.
OKP
- Consolidation period ended earlier than expected
- Might be going on another run.
Verdict: Be careful though as indicators show that it is slightly stretched.
Rotary
- Broke down the 80% level of the MFI. Indication points to it being overbought.
- Consolidation will end this week unless major macro-economic issues kick in.
Verdict: Buy on dips as consolidation period will not last long.
Soilbuild
-Consolidation period just began
Verdict: Could buy on dips, but better to wait for better trend formation.
STI ETF
- Showing signs of stretching
- The highs don't seem to be sustainable
Verdict: Consolidation would be natural progression and it wont be surprised if we have a small consolidation/correction.
Swissco
- An unexpected end to consolidation
- Might have pending news or events that affects the sentiments positively.
Verdict: Ride the trend as usual
TiongWoon
- Trading sideways for some time already
- Consolidation period at the moment
Verdict: Consolidation is necessary for the trend to move. Be patient
Wheelock
- Conosolidation period is ending soon
- Property development counters are under radar at the moment and once they are noticed, the price will recover fast
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic about this counter.
All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. If you have counters before the index recovered, then I guess it would still be relatively safe to hold it. For me, my EPs are stated and I will stick to it.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, FuJianZY, Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:48 PM |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Wednesday, July 18, 2007 |
| Losses |
So much to write today. Today, i suffered a huge loss. Maybe larger than the February correction.
I will start with the CFD components-
Rotary: Bought more at $1.45 cost averaging to $1.44. Sold during the cut loss trigger of $1.36 at about -27.77%
OKP: Sold the short term components at $0.98 and $0.88 with cost average at $0.84. A result of 63.49% profit is reached.
TiongWoon: Sold short term components at $1.12 and $1.05 with cost average at $1.086. A result of 7.596%
Touching on the Cash components-
AsiaEnv: One of the weak stocks I wanted to exit as it is so close to my exit signal. Bought on an average of $0.84 while I sell it at a price of $0.835 resulting a -0.595%
MiddleEastD: Another one of the weak stocks that was near my exit signal. Bought on an average of $0.387 and sold at $0.37 at a -4.39% loss
Soilbuild: This stock hit my cut loss limit at 1.61. Bought at 1.78. Exceeded my cut loss limit. Sold at a -9.55% loss
MapleTreeLog: It once touched my cut loss limit at 1.40. But decided to hold as it is recovering. Breached further and thus cut loss at 1.37 at a -6.8% loss
CreativeMast: Least expected to breach but it happened. Cut loss at 0.23 when I bought at 0.265 at a loss of -13.2%
Overall, my portfolio has reduced from $1.74 to $1.58, resulting in a 9.195% decrease. Like I mentioned, this will be the worst case scenario even though I still have holdings. One of the reasons that it is worse than estimations is because of difficulty in selling some of my shares. I have catered to a 15% risk at max and I am quite sure that it won't exceed this limit.
My remaining shares are base shares and it will be kept for middle-term. So short term cut losses will not apply to these shares. I will only trigger a sell if it crosses my mid-term signal.
For CAO, it still has short-term holdings. This is because, at the point of buying CAO, i did not have a system of allocation. However, it has not hit short term exit points. An exit will take place at around $2.69 for the short term holdings.
Labels: AsiaEnv, CreativeMast, MapleTreeLog, MiddleEastD, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:42 PM |
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| Rotary Loaded |
| Loaded the short term positions at $1.45 averaging my overall cost to $1.4433. This time round I will no longer make unforced errors. I must be more disciplined. Labels: Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:11 AM |
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| Tuesday, July 17, 2007 |
| Price to pay for not following my rules |
Remember last time i mentioned when I unloaded Rotary? I unloaded because of the short term weakness. Unloading is the right move but not all of them. Thus today, I loaded back some at $1.43, a premium of $0.23 when I last sold it at $1.20.
Lessoned Learned: Prices go up and down, and after a lengthy bull run, long periods of consolidation is expected. As long as trends of longer horizons are intact, it should be assumed that it will continue to trend upwards.
And .. ouch.. 23 cents premium is a high price to pay.
On the portfolio as a whole, the overall max risk that I bear have exceeded my level even though manageable risk are still within safety limits. Will have to see how it goes.Labels: Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:36 AM |
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| Wednesday, July 04, 2007 |
| Rotary on hindsight |
Everyone can make lots of money from hindsight.. But then again, this post is not on what ifs. Reason I wanna write it down is so that I can learn from it. In this blog full of investment/trading mistakes, this is most probably another small mistake in a sea of others.
Is the decision to sell Rotary a mistake?
Like I mentinoned when I sold it, I do have mixed feelings about it. However, whats the take away on this trade?
I feel that my CFD risk management is not good enough. This arises from a fatal calculation error for risk per unit cost for CFD holdings, which as a result, caused a huge drawdown during the recent correction.
But I feel that on the whole, I now have a clear concept on my trading style and it's a good thing in my opinion. At the very least, my new batch of trades (OKP, TiongWoon, MapleTreeLog) are done sticking to my concept.
The test will come when I have to make a decision to exit TiongWoon.
Eventually, exit strategies are much more important than entry strategies because it is only when you exit that either losses are cut, or profits are realised. All the hoohaa that happen in between doesn't have much bearing.
P.S. Haven been updating my stocks for 4 days already due to laptop issues. Will do so today.Labels: Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:04 PM |
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| Wednesday, June 27, 2007 |
| Rotary |
Rotary is fully funded by CFD and it has hit my "cut loss" limit of 1.20.
I'm having mixed feelings about this because It is on a general uptrend but CFDs are like this, as it can just bite you if you are not careful.
If there is a lesson to be learnt, it would be because CFD risk management is different from my other holdings.
As my averaged cost is 1.08, i only will have 11% returns.
But because of CFD, it has been magnified to 50++%.
Yup.. I shall now move on thenLabels: Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:19 PM |
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| Tuesday, June 26, 2007 |
| Portfolio Updates |
Yesterday was too tired to update at night. But seems like most of my shares are retracing together with the market.
AsiaEnv - Its price movement is quite flimsy. Inability to sustain its price. Not on alert now but it seems like I need to keep an eye on it.
BioTreat - It is near my exit point. However, It will not be profitable if I exit. I might even incur losses.
Rotary - Its recent fall in price is a bit worrying. Maybe its due to profit taking after its recent climb. It doesn't help that the market is in a possible correction now.
OKP and TiongWoon - Both bought just before the fall. Can't complain much that it's at paper loss.
Seems like its another period whereby "PS3s" are lost day after day. haha.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, OKP, Rotary, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:21 AM |
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| Wednesday, June 13, 2007 |
| Recent Updates |
ChinaAviationOil - Slowly recovering from its retracement. Maybe 2 more weeks, and it shall embark on a new climb.
AsiaEnv -Still continuing its new climb. Nothing much to comment
BrightWorld - MACD showing signs of reversing. $0.60 seems to be its peak but as trend followers, lets see how far it goes
BioTreat - Still continuing its slow and steady climb. Nothing much to comment too
MiddleEastD - Going through what seems like a retracement, uptrend still intact though
Rotary - After a long consilidation, the breakout sure is significant. Might be increasing position tomorrowLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:30 AM |
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| Friday, June 08, 2007 |
| Brief Roundup for thursday |
Its Friday now, and due to Dow drop, it might drop today, but I will do a little roundup for yesterdays holding.
Rotary - Sudden breakout recently and while its MACD diverges, whether the momenttum will be build upon is another issue. I doubt the resistance will hold in today's drop though
BrightWorld - Since it's low of 30+ cents, it has been showing a strong reversal, which is reinforced when it passes the resistance of $0.45. This breakout, coupled with EMA crossovers, makes me sure that it is an uptrend. How long this can sustain, I don't know but it seems like it isn't stopping now. And personally I think it's a good thing that not many has noticed this stock (lesser volatilty due to band trading traders)
MiddleEastD - Similar to BrightWorld, since its low of 10+ cents, it has been showing a strong reversal, with further reinforcement as it breaks through the 30 cents mark. This one has lots of attention, as observed in SI forums. Not neccesarily a bad thing but it will most prob stay flat till demand > supply (meaning more long term holders holding it)
AsiaEnv - After the accumulation recently, it has begun to move. Whether its sustainable is another issue. But from evidence, it is on a healthy uptrend.
ChinaAviationOil - This accumulation is much longer than anticipated. Maybe the dash from $1.10 to $1.95 in less than 3 months is too much for it. Trend remains intact with strong support at $1.88-$1.91. Another push seems to be evident and we would have to wait and see.
BioTreat - Its puzzling when someone in SI mention that it is trading sideways. How is it sideways when the price increase from its low 50+cents to todays 90+ cents in around 7 months? 80% increase in this period of time isn't sideways, and to me, this is one of my prefered stocks. Steady growth without much hoo-ha about it. By the time hoo-haa comes in, it will most probably be more accelerated. Looking at how things are going, if not for the $1.03 surge recently, it would most probably continue its steady climb. But for now, it seems as though its waiting to weed out the contra players and the attention before continuing its climb.
Today will definitely see a drop. But its also a good time to tell which are resilent. Just like how I picked out HoBee, Golden Agri and CAO, I will be hoping to pick some gems if things turn sour.
Of cos, I will also close some of my positions as well if it triggers. More review will be done at the end of the day..Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:01 AM |
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| Thursday, May 24, 2007 |
| 23rd May update |
Liverpool Lost.. sighz.. oh well, there is always a next year..
AsiaEnv - It is still consolidating, though signs are signs are pointing towards a reverse. Price might start picking up sooner rather than later.
BrightWorld - Unexpected reverse, thought it might need more time. SAR, MACD, and RSI all showing positive signs.
BioTreat - As stated yesterday, its relative stability of trend makes it a plus for trend followers. Breakout of the $0.90 mark. This might mark the beginning of a second run.
ChinaAOil - Price close seems to indicate a reversal. But I'm still holding firm that it might be going to a consolidation stage soon. Will hover within the $1.90 and $1.94 range.
MiddleEastD - Weak momentum is its drawback. However, things might pick up after the consolidation period.
NobleGroup - Gapped down due to huge placement. Positives from the EOD is that it closes higher than the opening. Will be volatile for the next few days. The cut loss point is exactly the closing price. Will thus look at the closing price tomorrow before making a decision
Rotary - Held their ground well at $1.07. Might finally start the move upwards
NTS System
This system I'm trying to develop will help determine the ratings of a particular stock, paying special attention to its risk involved.
A brief summary of the risk spectrum in my portfolio.
MiddleEastD - 5.6 High risk
NobleGroup - 4.2 Medium-High risk
CAO - 4 Medium-High risk
AsiaEnv - 3.29 Medium risk
BrightWorld - 2.82 Low risk (unexpected)
Rotary - 2.8 Low risk
Bio Treat - 2.66 Low risk
This numbers are calculated using some formula I'm testing out.
And its only 1/3 complete.
Furthermore, I have no idea why MiddleEastD is so high up and BrightWorld is so low.
Will have to look into it in greater depthLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 4:54 AM |
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| Tuesday, May 22, 2007 |
| 22nd May updates |
Recently, due to work, I have not been able to find time to blog. Today, however, I decided to briefly update my blog.
AsiaEnv - It is now going through a consolidation stage. MACD and RSI shows that the price will continue to hover/drop. Will stick with it.
BrightWorld - It seems to be coming to be reversing soon. MACD shows reversal patterns. Trend is still kinda healthy.
BioTreat - An ideal stock for trend followers as it is trending and stable. SAR flipped and it might be an indication that it might be surging up. MACD line crossing the signal line is also an indication of good things to follow.
ChinaAOil - MACD reversed to show growing momentum in the opposite direction. Coupled by a potential flip in SAR soon and decreasing RSI index, CAO will be reaching consolidation/selling state.
MiddleEastD - MACD has been weak in the recent weaks. However, overall positive trends will make this continue to surge after the consolidation period.
NobleGroup - Trend seems to evolve to sideways. Will wait to observe more cues before determining the outcome.
Rotary - This time, it seems to be be surging up. SAR is indicating positive, MACD crosee over , pointing to the North today. RSI growing as well.
*dont know why it did not reflect on the blog.. but i will repost todayLabels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:17 PM |
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| Tuesday, May 15, 2007 |
| Those that might run this week |
Firstly, as a trend follower, you just need to follow the trend and stick to it. Rules are set such that you won't have to trade so often (something i have not done in the past). This means that there will be times you need to stick with the retracement, which might be a long period if it runs up too far, too fast.
So what I'm gonna state here are stocks that might shoot up this week.
Rotary --> MACD showing signs of a new run. Might start within the next few days or early next week.
HoBee --> Might need 2 more weeks with small possibility of running up in late week.
Thats about it.. Others are either retracing or still running upwards, so no point repeating again.Labels: HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:02 AM |
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| Saturday, May 12, 2007 |
| Weekly Round up + portfolio update |
This week has shown mixed results again.
MiddleEastD Price rose but that does not indicate an uptrend breaking up. While it seems that the downward momentum is coming to an end, RSI and SAR still shows down. Nothing critical yet though.
Asia Env As stated previously, it is taking a breather and all signs are pointing towards it. We shall now wait and see how bad the retracement is.
ChinaAviationOil
CPL at $1.86 has all but ensured a 45% returns. Will enter again when there is a retracement. At the moment, I have no funds. So most probably have to wait for next month when I get my pay. Needless to say, this stock is running fast now.
BrightWorld The issue with buying pennies is that the cut loss limit is so tight. I bought this at 0.475 and according to percentage, the cut loss is at 0.445. Seems like its possible to hit that range as it is retracing now. (The difficult part is to identify the difference between retracement and reversal) As of now, it will be assumed as retracement.
NobleGroup MACD showing signs of weakness and RSI declining slowly. This stock seems to be the short term punters dreams due to its fluctuations. I'm not like that but on a whole its on a healthy trend. Hopefully, this MACD slowdown period (now) is the retracement period.
BioTreat Its kinda strange why it opened so much lower than the previous day closing price. Maybe BioTreat has lots of short term traders and they might sell the stock out of fear because of DJ's drop the previous day. Nothing much to read from this chart other than the probable composition of the style of investors in this stock. Guess I better be careful. Its always safer to ride a trend full of fundamentalists as their tendency to hold is higher.
Rotary The stock I whined the most. It should be ok as candlesticks shows that people are trying to push the price up (my own interpretation). Nothing much to say at the moment. Only time will tell.
HoBee It has passed my CPL level. Seems like it might even hit oversold soon. Again, the reason might be attributed to the Dow Factor, but it seems like its bye bye to it soon. Monday should be my final day to judge it, and I will put an alert at $2.30. Should it hit it, then I have to say my thanks to Ho Bee for the good ride.
Portfolio Updates as of 11 May 2007
 Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NenixDreams Fund, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:31 PM |
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| Thursday, May 10, 2007 |
| Automation |
The stuff I am doing is on automation. using a language I know nuts about. Hah.. luckily I have source code for reference. 4 days have passed and I feel like I understand VBA better. Seems like I can start to automate my system.. That would be cool, so I don't have to update my prices on 3 seperate spreadsheets every day.
MiddleEastD
Losing steam now but its ok i guess. But should pick up soon. No worries about that.
Asia Env
Hah.. Losing steam as well. MACD did cut and SAR did flip. seems like its taking a breather. No worries on that though.
BrightWorld
Lost steam too. All these 3 that I bought around the same time all lost steam together.
Ho Bee
It has been inching so ever close to CPL of 2.32. Tomorrow shld be profit taking day, but dont see any profit to take from here. Oh well.. hope all goes right.
Rotary
It picked up. This time round, I wont make the mistake of holding for too long. I will let go a certain number of lots once the speculative portion hits my short term line. STI has been quite forgiving, in fact, due to bullishness, its always fine to try some methods here and there.
Cheeros for tomorrowLabels: AsiaEnv, HoBee, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:24 PM |
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| Tuesday, May 08, 2007 |
| Review for 8th May 2007 |
You know, I really hope that I can get past one day without mentioning my holdings (meaning all increasing steadily), but thats not the case. China market seems to cool down and you know what? Singapore's market fell much more than their counterparts. Haha. Its like everyone can rise for all they care, and Singapore won't move up much. But however, if one country cools down, Singapore will drop much more than them. Kiasi mentality I suppose. (A bit like me)
MiddleEastD
MACD cuts downwards, RSI drops downwards, and it is without doubt that SAR indicator will flip. All this will point towards a downtrend. Of cos, it might be nothing serious but the fact that there is an indication of downtrend means that I must keep a lookout on it as well.
AsiaEnv
MACD touched and might cut downwards tomorrow, RSI hit the 70 mark, and SAR flipped. This means that another downtrend (possibly temporary) might be occurring. Time to sit tight!
BrightWorld
Not so Bright at the moment, SAR flipped, MACD touched, RSI hitting 50 and might go down further tomorrow. Today's drop seems kinda big compared to their regular price movement. Seems like it might due to the CD. Like AsiaEnv, its time to sit tight
Rotary
Like what I mentioned the other day, rotary seems to be at the bottom of the trough. Seems like I'm spot on (so heng). Anyway, its still showing downtrend signals although signs of reversal are showing. As usual, I still haven't reduce my position size. haha
Ho Bee
Seems like its inching closer and closer to my CPL line. I really dont wish to make a forced decision. Signs dont show an obvious reversal, so its possible that it is still decreasing.
Tomorrow might be another day full of decisions to make.. haha.. hope its not that much of a headache.Labels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, HoBee, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:56 PM |
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| Monday, May 07, 2007 |
| System fault? |
According to my system, BrightWorld has touched the CPL line. But it doesn't make sense to sell. What I didn't look out for is that this is quite a volatile stock, thus, the system thought that it has hit a downtrend, dropping from 0.51 to 0.475. Anyway, the trend still looks good, so will hold longer.
Rotary has been the one that gives me trouble. Everyday, I say I will reduce the position size, but everyday I did not execute. Actually, assuming that the trend is still going upwards, now is the time to buy as technical indicators indicates a possible lowest point of the trough.
HoBee is inching closer to my CPL line of $2.31. Haha.. I do not wish to make another decision so soon.
P.S Olam rebounded in such amazing fashion. But I can't really regret it since I a rules follower..Labels: BrightWorld, HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:43 PM |
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| Monday, April 30, 2007 |
| An Assesment of my holdings |
Its another holiday again. So today I will assess my holdings.
Ho Bee:
Direction: RSI, MACD, SAR all showing downtrend. Market moves in cycles and this small downtrend is understandable following a large movement in price.
Possible Movement: Coming week might show a reversal in trend so that it will resume its trend movement.
Risk Rating: low
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $2.30
Bio Treat:
Direction: Uptrend since November 2006
Possible Movement: Not much movement as MACD are not favorable, or slow upward movement
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: -5.98%
Cut Loss Price: $0.785
China Aviation Oil:
Direction: A secondary downtrend
Possible Movement: Recovery might have to be longer. Might continue to fall further.
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $1.46
Noble Group:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Sudden dip to $1.59 might trigger a reversal. Unknown where it will be heading
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 6.58%
Cut loss price: $1.56
Rotary:
Direction: Possible secondary downtrend due to negative indicators shown by MACD, ADX and RSI
Possible movement: Might not be significant as this dip is caused by the XD. It's low has been triggered, however, it's closing price still lies above the CPL price.
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 0
CPL: $0.995
BrightWorld:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Continue up
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 7.157%
Cut loss price: $0.441
Asia Env:
Direction: Trend has been strong. However, profit warning might break the trend
Possible movement: Profit warning might trigger a reversal. Extra attention is needed on this stock.
Risk Rating: medium-high
Potental loss: 8.395%
Cut loss price: $0.742
MiddleEastD:
Direction: Price Stabilizing at the moment.
Possible movement: Might be facing a possible secondary downtrend.
Risk Rating: High
Potental loss: 14.49%
Cut loss price: $0.295
After the analysis, three stocks needs extra attention. Rotary(the decision whether to reduce its position), NobleGroup(the sudden dip in prices), AsiaEnv(Profit warning signs by Dayen)
Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:06 AM |
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| Friday, April 27, 2007 |
| Quickie |
Tomorrow's another exam.. so this will be a quick post. Will elaborate more tomorrow evening.
Ho Bee: Loaded more as intended. However, prices did not break as I believed it would be. Maybe it would take longer than expected.
Rotary: Still held on to it. I must really rethink whether I should reduce my position. It is showing a downtrend as indicated by the SAR. MACD, ADX and RSI don't show favorable conditions about it.
Noblegroup: Nothing to say about. Trend looks strong
ChinaAviOil: Its showing more and more traits similar to Golden Agri. Guess that's what happens when you shoot up too fast. Might have to sell if it breaches my CPL, but nothing to worry about as of now.
BioTreat: Looking at the long term trend, it is slowly climbing up. Maybe its too slow, and it does not seem to have the strength to pick up. Nothing to worry at this point.
AsiaEnv: Nice looking trend. However, the momentum seems to have ran its course. Might be a small retracement, but things should look fine, barring any major catastrophic events
MiddleEastDevelopment: Picked some up @ $0.345 due to nice trends. Today seems to be a good opportune to buy. Price will most prob stay around here for sometime. Nothing much to say as well.
BrightWorld: Picked some too @ 0.475. Watching this stock but unable to enter due to lack of funds. Should have entered at an earlier price but I don't have enough money. Nothing much to say at the moment.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:49 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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