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| Tuesday, October 16, 2007 |
| Correction and beyond? |
"All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. "
Seems like I was spot on. While only a few had hit my EP, I've decided to clear my trading positions. I believe that macro conditions do play an important role, with the rocketing oil prices, China inflationary bubble waiting to burst, US inflation/subprime issues still lingering, it seems that at this point of time, if 3 of these issues were to pop, or bull run, if any, will be pushed back. At the moment, I'm neither bear nor bull, put I feel that safe guarding the capital is more important. No matter what, the market wont run away and there will always be opportunities to invest/trade. But without capital, or if capital is stuck, you can do nothing about it.
To me, there is a difference between broad based correction and dips in individual counters. With broad based correction, every good news will have little or no effect. It's like trying to go against the wave. For inidvidual dips, we look at the consolidation and surge of inidividual counters. At this moment, as the macro sentiment might change suddenly, the TA for individual stocks have to be cast aside.
Right now, the more sensible thing is to try to find the bottom with small positions. After which, when the dust settles, then consolidate your holdings for the next run. That is if there is a correction. However, if there isn't then just enter the positions again. Transaction fees are the costs of keeping the integrity of you capital.
Anyway. with the exception of MiddleEastD, I have cleared all my trading positions.
Rotary @ 1.38
OKP @ 0.82
Ferrochina @ 2.64
Wheelock @ 2.66
Soilbuild @ 1.34
advSCT @ 0.96
CAO @ 2.79
AsiaEnv @ 0.69
TiongWoon @ 1.08
Federal @ 0.81
FJBen @ 0.88
Swissco @ 1.34
After selling those, my fund price dropped to $1.49 while the market just retracecd 2cents to $1.58. I am now $0.09 behind the market. Anyway, now that I'm sidelined and full of cash, I could start to cherry pick. I will most prob load up on CAO, Ferrochina, maybe Tathong, TW, and OKP once it goes lower. We shall see how it goes tomorrowLabels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
posted by Nenix @ 7:01 PM   |
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| Monday, October 15, 2007 |
| Technical Update on my Portfolio |
Haha.. I'm a bit embarrassed by my large portfolio. Anyway, I do not have the opportunity to reduce my portfolio. Maybe, this week, I might hit some of the triggers, which will give me reason to either cut loss or profit take. Anyway, this is a technical update on my counters. Note that the month of October is historically bad, so sentiment is not optimistic. Furthermore, with the FOMC meeting around the corner, most investors will be on the sidelines. Profit taking should not be seen as abnormal.
AdvSCT
- Overbought region in the MFI indicates that some time is needed for consolidation
- Low volume reinforces the fact that most are waiting on the sidelines
- Parabolic SAR indicates a downtrend at the moment
- MACD indicates that the upward momentum as ended and it might swing downwards. Extent of downward swing cannot be determined
- Narrowing price range indicates that consolidation period is ending.
Verdict: Direction points towards consolidation which is understandable but consolidation might end earlier than expected. Most indicators point towards a quiet week for advSCT.
AsiaEnv
- MFI indicates consoliation
- MACD indicates that upward momentum is nearing an end/has ended
- Decreasing volume with decreasing price indicates consolidation
- Support at $0.725 is weak and will test $0.66 if broken.
Verdict: This is a severely traded stock and TA could be taken out of the window. From insider trades, our respectable UBS trades frequently around 3000 lots. From past few days, we saw one lotters pressing down the price. We can see where these big boys are going, pressing it down, then pushing it up, selling to ignorant people, then pressing it down again. Well, what we can do is to hold on and not panic. But on technical terms, consolidation has just started.
Boustead
- Consolidation for about 2 weeks already
- Reaching oversold region
Verdict: The is the exact opposite of AsiaEnv. It is so illiquid that no one knows how to play it. Prices should move soon and for illiquid stocks we will see faster price surges. Nothing to worry about this counter.
ChinaAOil
- Going through a mild consolidation
- Nothing to be worried as it is on a positive uptrend.
Verdict: Ride and ennjoy the wave before it is too late.
Federal
- Recovering from consolidation
- MFI hits 50% mark
Verdict: Good time to enter now as it might be the start of the next short term uptrend
FerroChina
- Consolidation seems to be ending soon
- Price surge is very likely within the next 3 days
Verdict: Similar to CAO, just be patient and ride the wave.
FJBen
- Sudden weakness in price indicates that it might not be just a simple consolidation.
- Caution needed if one is to trade this counter
Verict: Be cautious on this counter despite its uptrend. Sentiments are not reacting naturally to this counter
FuJian
- In consolidation stage
- Decreasing volume suggests that this is consolidation in a bull run
- MACD showing selling momentum. Whether it is significant is still unknown.
Verdict: Be patient if you haven't entered the counter. Wait till Friday before loading the counters
Gold
- Uptrend
- Consolidation period has ended
Verdict: Long term counter. Just hold.
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend
Verdict: Just ride the wave as it looks like it still has lots of upside potential
MiddleEast
- Selldown should be a concern
- Consolidation is coming to an end. Direction of price movement will be significant in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Verdict: The long consolidation has reached its end, and the direction of the next move is dependent on the breakout.
MMP Reit
- Sideway traded
- Not much interest in buying up although it is very well supported.
- Such scenario will not last long as more people will try to make use of this scenario, making it non profitable. When that time comes, it has to go one direction, which is upwards
Verdict: Keep for long term, as it is more of a yield stock.
OKP
- Consolidation period ended earlier than expected
- Might be going on another run.
Verdict: Be careful though as indicators show that it is slightly stretched.
Rotary
- Broke down the 80% level of the MFI. Indication points to it being overbought.
- Consolidation will end this week unless major macro-economic issues kick in.
Verdict: Buy on dips as consolidation period will not last long.
Soilbuild
-Consolidation period just began
Verdict: Could buy on dips, but better to wait for better trend formation.
STI ETF
- Showing signs of stretching
- The highs don't seem to be sustainable
Verdict: Consolidation would be natural progression and it wont be surprised if we have a small consolidation/correction.
Swissco
- An unexpected end to consolidation
- Might have pending news or events that affects the sentiments positively.
Verdict: Ride the trend as usual
TiongWoon
- Trading sideways for some time already
- Consolidation period at the moment
Verdict: Consolidation is necessary for the trend to move. Be patient
Wheelock
- Conosolidation period is ending soon
- Property development counters are under radar at the moment and once they are noticed, the price will recover fast
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic about this counter.
All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. If you have counters before the index recovered, then I guess it would still be relatively safe to hold it. For me, my EPs are stated and I will stick to it.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, FuJianZY, Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:48 PM |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Friday, September 28, 2007 |
| Soilbuild |
Bought back some at $1.35. Satisfies the trigger. Right now, its a bit difficult to decide what are the best stocks technically as they are all triggering at the moment. Maybe some quality control over choice of stocks would be ideal. Anyway, I'm not sure if its good times for me at the moment as I might have been holding too many different shares.
I feel that a portfolio could be divided to portions. Each portion will have its own risk/return ratio and will be realized once triggers are hit. If each portion gets around 10% returns, after deducting the transaction fees, we would most probably be left with around 7-8%. Transaction fees are the devil in this management method thus, time horizon could not be very short. However, too long a time horizon takes away the possible edge for trading as you will exit or enter too late.
Tricky eh... Maybe lifetime learning is required, provided I could understand.Labels: Soilbuild |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:17 AM |
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| Wednesday, July 18, 2007 |
| Losses |
So much to write today. Today, i suffered a huge loss. Maybe larger than the February correction.
I will start with the CFD components-
Rotary: Bought more at $1.45 cost averaging to $1.44. Sold during the cut loss trigger of $1.36 at about -27.77%
OKP: Sold the short term components at $0.98 and $0.88 with cost average at $0.84. A result of 63.49% profit is reached.
TiongWoon: Sold short term components at $1.12 and $1.05 with cost average at $1.086. A result of 7.596%
Touching on the Cash components-
AsiaEnv: One of the weak stocks I wanted to exit as it is so close to my exit signal. Bought on an average of $0.84 while I sell it at a price of $0.835 resulting a -0.595%
MiddleEastD: Another one of the weak stocks that was near my exit signal. Bought on an average of $0.387 and sold at $0.37 at a -4.39% loss
Soilbuild: This stock hit my cut loss limit at 1.61. Bought at 1.78. Exceeded my cut loss limit. Sold at a -9.55% loss
MapleTreeLog: It once touched my cut loss limit at 1.40. But decided to hold as it is recovering. Breached further and thus cut loss at 1.37 at a -6.8% loss
CreativeMast: Least expected to breach but it happened. Cut loss at 0.23 when I bought at 0.265 at a loss of -13.2%
Overall, my portfolio has reduced from $1.74 to $1.58, resulting in a 9.195% decrease. Like I mentioned, this will be the worst case scenario even though I still have holdings. One of the reasons that it is worse than estimations is because of difficulty in selling some of my shares. I have catered to a 15% risk at max and I am quite sure that it won't exceed this limit.
My remaining shares are base shares and it will be kept for middle-term. So short term cut losses will not apply to these shares. I will only trigger a sell if it crosses my mid-term signal.
For CAO, it still has short-term holdings. This is because, at the point of buying CAO, i did not have a system of allocation. However, it has not hit short term exit points. An exit will take place at around $2.69 for the short term holdings.
Labels: AsiaEnv, CreativeMast, MapleTreeLog, MiddleEastD, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:42 PM |
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| Friday, July 13, 2007 |
| Cracks within? |
AsiaEnv, MiddleEastD, Soilbuild and MapleTreeLog all shows weakness.
Although AsiaEnv might be affected by the placement, it cannot be denied that there is an apparent weakness in the price.
MiddleEastD has been consolidating for a long time and it seems to be losing interest. More people are eager to sell, this thus explains its weakness too.
Soildbuild as mentioned, might be going through a consolidation stage and today's selldown is quite significant.
MapleTreeLog has to be the biggest "shock" of the week in my portfolio. Having bought at $1.47, it has came down to $1.39 which is an approximate 6% loss. However this is a reit and keeping it as a defensive stock might not be a bad idea. I need to take a look at these shares when I get back tonight.
P.S. its kinda shitty when I didn't take note what is my exit price for my newly acquired stock. I have a feeling that MapleTreeLog has triggered it alreadyLabels: AsiaEnv, MapleTreeLog, MiddleEastD, Soilbuild |
| posted by Nenix @ 5:24 PM |
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| Thursday, July 12, 2007 |
| Portfolio Updates |
CreativeMaster remains the highest risk stock because of its volatility. 5d EMA just crossed the 12d EMA justing that it might trend up while MACD seems to be diverging upwards. I think barring nothing catastrophic happen globally, CreativeMaster will start trending up by next week.
MiddleEastD shows a weakening in trend. Exit has been planned. This is one of the reasons why Soildbuild, MapleTreeLog and CreativeMaster are loaded as to replace those potentially weak trends. Shall wait for tomorrow's EOD before making any decision. Hopefully the "friday" effect wont have a great impact on it.
OKP has a strong trend but risk entailed is high as its volatility is rather significant. However, the momentum is strong for this stock and thus this occupies a significant percentage of my holdings
TiongWoon also exhibit strong trends but momentum isnt as strong as OKP. It is less volatile than OKP, thus it is the second largest position in my portfolio.
AsiaEnv has weakened trend after the placement. Like MiddleEastD, it is one of those that might be sold if it hits the trigger. Contrary to my previous comment that it is going to trend up, the price seems to be heading for consolidation at around $0.84. Knowing that, I still have to be disciplined and keep to my exit triggers.
ChinaAviationOil has exhibit a strong trend. Momentum seems to have peaked and should consolidate at around $3. Comparing returns per unit risk, CAO seems to be the top stock in my portfolio, thus occupying around 46+++% of my portfolio.
SoilBuild was loaded to act as a transition to stocks with weak trends. This itself has been on my radar for a long time but due to lack of funds, I gave it a pass. Trend now is ok but it seems to be consolidating as well.
MapleTreeLog was loaded as a transition phase to stocks that I might exit. It fulfils the primary buying signal that the 12d EMA crosses the 26d EMA. However, market strength in this counter seems to be rather weak. Might trigger selling signal soon as well
BrightWorld was meant to be unloaded due to weakness in technicals. However, the price reversal today caught me by surprise. Thus I will still be holding on to it till the trend bends
Risk taken has increased to 8.648% of portfolio value and 11.14% of cost value. The risk incurred with respect to cost value exceeded my limit, thus, all buying shall cease until more equities reach "zero-risk" status.
Overall, the main shares I hold, barring AsiaEnv, are doing well, while other transition stocks seems to be consolidating. I do not expect tomorrow to surge again as profit taking might most probably rule over most. Getting tired now. So have a good Friday aheadLabels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, CreativeMast, MapleTreeLog, MiddleEastD, OKP, Soilbuild, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:39 PM |
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| Friday, July 06, 2007 |
| Risk Portfolio |
This are the maximum risks of my equity in my current portfolio.
ChinaAOil - 2.64% potential loss to portfolio value
TiongWoon - 2.397% potential loss to portfolio value
AsiaEnv - 0.90% potential loss to portfolio value
OKP - 0.75% potential loss to portfolio value
MiddleEastD - 0.562% potential loss to portfolio value
Soilbuild - 0.51% potential loss to portfolio value
MapleTreeLog - 0.486% potential loss to portfolio value
BrightWorld - 0.236% potential loss to portfolio value
Total Maximum risks is 8.49% of total portfolio value. Even with maximum liquidation, plus and minus slow reaction in selling off in the worst scenario, the loss will never go beyond 15%.
Below will be the Managed Risk in my portfolio. It is assumed in this case, that 'zero-risk' status exist. At the moment, only CAO and Brightworld has acquired 'zero-risk' status. This brings down the total Managed Risk to be 5.614% of total portfolio value.
Usually, my decision to add more positions will be primarly based on Managed Risk. However, I should consider the maximum drawdown (which means that CAO for example, would have to fall to 1.55, since my average cost is 1.70, Brightworld back to 0.47 as my average price is about 0.52). As a result, managed Risk is usually a more realistic measure.
Potential returns have not been calculated due to the fact that template to fill in the data is incomplete.Labels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MapleTreeLog, MiddleEastD, OKP, Soilbuild, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:05 AM |
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| Thursday, July 05, 2007 |
| Soilbuild |
Always monitoring this stock, it has always been on the radar. One reason why I didn't get it is because CFD doesn't offer this stock, thus zero leveraging could be done on it.
One thing I like about this is that it is a quietly trending stock. This makes it less susceptible to range traders, which in my opinion, often causes whipsaw trends.
Anyway, loaded some @$1.79.
This brings me to 9 holdings, which is managable considering the increased size of available funds.
ChinaAOil, TiongWoon, AsiaEnv, MiddleEastD, MapleTree, OKP, Soilbuild, BrightWorld and MDR.
Potential stocks being replaced are MiddleEastD and BrightWorld. MDR could be written off as its a mistake of not cutting losses from 2 years ago.Labels: Soilbuild |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:26 AM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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