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| Tuesday, May 15, 2007 |
| Chop 'n' Save |
Ho Bee finally faced the chopping board. It might been a bit unfortunate that another the correction came just as it is starting to show signs of picking up.
Ho Bee hit the CPL of $2.29. The CPL was $2.31, but i compromised, which isn't the right thing. It left a tinge of sour note as my Ho Bee was averaged up to $2.17. What are the lessons to take from this? MAYBE I shouldn't have rushed when I averaged up. It was kinda flat at that moment and I tried to predict the up trend. Maybe that shouldn't be the way as it contradicts my style. Of cos, hindsight trading is easy, but I shall reflect on it again.
The CPL line is absurd when the mark is just based slightly above the buy price. It just doesn't make sense. Of cos, for stocks like CAO, Ho Bee, Golden Agri, Olam, I could afford this as margin of safety is high. But for others, well, seems like therer need to be some criteria before I start using the CPL.
Next on the chopping board is Rotary. I wont make any decisions tomorrow. but i will keep an eye on things.Labels: HoBee |
posted by Nenix @ 8:51 PM   |
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| Those that might run this week |
Firstly, as a trend follower, you just need to follow the trend and stick to it. Rules are set such that you won't have to trade so often (something i have not done in the past). This means that there will be times you need to stick with the retracement, which might be a long period if it runs up too far, too fast.
So what I'm gonna state here are stocks that might shoot up this week.
Rotary --> MACD showing signs of a new run. Might start within the next few days or early next week.
HoBee --> Might need 2 more weeks with small possibility of running up in late week.
Thats about it.. Others are either retracing or still running upwards, so no point repeating again.Labels: HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:02 AM |
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| Saturday, May 12, 2007 |
| Weekly Round up + portfolio update |
This week has shown mixed results again.
MiddleEastD Price rose but that does not indicate an uptrend breaking up. While it seems that the downward momentum is coming to an end, RSI and SAR still shows down. Nothing critical yet though.
Asia Env As stated previously, it is taking a breather and all signs are pointing towards it. We shall now wait and see how bad the retracement is.
ChinaAviationOil
CPL at $1.86 has all but ensured a 45% returns. Will enter again when there is a retracement. At the moment, I have no funds. So most probably have to wait for next month when I get my pay. Needless to say, this stock is running fast now.
BrightWorld The issue with buying pennies is that the cut loss limit is so tight. I bought this at 0.475 and according to percentage, the cut loss is at 0.445. Seems like its possible to hit that range as it is retracing now. (The difficult part is to identify the difference between retracement and reversal) As of now, it will be assumed as retracement.
NobleGroup MACD showing signs of weakness and RSI declining slowly. This stock seems to be the short term punters dreams due to its fluctuations. I'm not like that but on a whole its on a healthy trend. Hopefully, this MACD slowdown period (now) is the retracement period.
BioTreat Its kinda strange why it opened so much lower than the previous day closing price. Maybe BioTreat has lots of short term traders and they might sell the stock out of fear because of DJ's drop the previous day. Nothing much to read from this chart other than the probable composition of the style of investors in this stock. Guess I better be careful. Its always safer to ride a trend full of fundamentalists as their tendency to hold is higher.
Rotary The stock I whined the most. It should be ok as candlesticks shows that people are trying to push the price up (my own interpretation). Nothing much to say at the moment. Only time will tell.
HoBee It has passed my CPL level. Seems like it might even hit oversold soon. Again, the reason might be attributed to the Dow Factor, but it seems like its bye bye to it soon. Monday should be my final day to judge it, and I will put an alert at $2.30. Should it hit it, then I have to say my thanks to Ho Bee for the good ride.
Portfolio Updates as of 11 May 2007
 Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NenixDreams Fund, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:31 PM |
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| Thursday, May 10, 2007 |
| Automation |
The stuff I am doing is on automation. using a language I know nuts about. Hah.. luckily I have source code for reference. 4 days have passed and I feel like I understand VBA better. Seems like I can start to automate my system.. That would be cool, so I don't have to update my prices on 3 seperate spreadsheets every day.
MiddleEastD
Losing steam now but its ok i guess. But should pick up soon. No worries about that.
Asia Env
Hah.. Losing steam as well. MACD did cut and SAR did flip. seems like its taking a breather. No worries on that though.
BrightWorld
Lost steam too. All these 3 that I bought around the same time all lost steam together.
Ho Bee
It has been inching so ever close to CPL of 2.32. Tomorrow shld be profit taking day, but dont see any profit to take from here. Oh well.. hope all goes right.
Rotary
It picked up. This time round, I wont make the mistake of holding for too long. I will let go a certain number of lots once the speculative portion hits my short term line. STI has been quite forgiving, in fact, due to bullishness, its always fine to try some methods here and there.
Cheeros for tomorrowLabels: AsiaEnv, HoBee, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:24 PM |
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| Tuesday, May 08, 2007 |
| Review for 8th May 2007 |
You know, I really hope that I can get past one day without mentioning my holdings (meaning all increasing steadily), but thats not the case. China market seems to cool down and you know what? Singapore's market fell much more than their counterparts. Haha. Its like everyone can rise for all they care, and Singapore won't move up much. But however, if one country cools down, Singapore will drop much more than them. Kiasi mentality I suppose. (A bit like me)
MiddleEastD
MACD cuts downwards, RSI drops downwards, and it is without doubt that SAR indicator will flip. All this will point towards a downtrend. Of cos, it might be nothing serious but the fact that there is an indication of downtrend means that I must keep a lookout on it as well.
AsiaEnv
MACD touched and might cut downwards tomorrow, RSI hit the 70 mark, and SAR flipped. This means that another downtrend (possibly temporary) might be occurring. Time to sit tight!
BrightWorld
Not so Bright at the moment, SAR flipped, MACD touched, RSI hitting 50 and might go down further tomorrow. Today's drop seems kinda big compared to their regular price movement. Seems like it might due to the CD. Like AsiaEnv, its time to sit tight
Rotary
Like what I mentioned the other day, rotary seems to be at the bottom of the trough. Seems like I'm spot on (so heng). Anyway, its still showing downtrend signals although signs of reversal are showing. As usual, I still haven't reduce my position size. haha
Ho Bee
Seems like its inching closer and closer to my CPL line. I really dont wish to make a forced decision. Signs dont show an obvious reversal, so its possible that it is still decreasing.
Tomorrow might be another day full of decisions to make.. haha.. hope its not that much of a headache.Labels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, HoBee, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:56 PM |
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| Monday, May 07, 2007 |
| System fault? |
According to my system, BrightWorld has touched the CPL line. But it doesn't make sense to sell. What I didn't look out for is that this is quite a volatile stock, thus, the system thought that it has hit a downtrend, dropping from 0.51 to 0.475. Anyway, the trend still looks good, so will hold longer.
Rotary has been the one that gives me trouble. Everyday, I say I will reduce the position size, but everyday I did not execute. Actually, assuming that the trend is still going upwards, now is the time to buy as technical indicators indicates a possible lowest point of the trough.
HoBee is inching closer to my CPL line of $2.31. Haha.. I do not wish to make another decision so soon.
P.S Olam rebounded in such amazing fashion. But I can't really regret it since I a rules follower..Labels: BrightWorld, HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:43 PM |
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| Monday, April 30, 2007 |
| An Assesment of my holdings |
Its another holiday again. So today I will assess my holdings.
Ho Bee:
Direction: RSI, MACD, SAR all showing downtrend. Market moves in cycles and this small downtrend is understandable following a large movement in price.
Possible Movement: Coming week might show a reversal in trend so that it will resume its trend movement.
Risk Rating: low
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $2.30
Bio Treat:
Direction: Uptrend since November 2006
Possible Movement: Not much movement as MACD are not favorable, or slow upward movement
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: -5.98%
Cut Loss Price: $0.785
China Aviation Oil:
Direction: A secondary downtrend
Possible Movement: Recovery might have to be longer. Might continue to fall further.
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $1.46
Noble Group:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Sudden dip to $1.59 might trigger a reversal. Unknown where it will be heading
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 6.58%
Cut loss price: $1.56
Rotary:
Direction: Possible secondary downtrend due to negative indicators shown by MACD, ADX and RSI
Possible movement: Might not be significant as this dip is caused by the XD. It's low has been triggered, however, it's closing price still lies above the CPL price.
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 0
CPL: $0.995
BrightWorld:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Continue up
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 7.157%
Cut loss price: $0.441
Asia Env:
Direction: Trend has been strong. However, profit warning might break the trend
Possible movement: Profit warning might trigger a reversal. Extra attention is needed on this stock.
Risk Rating: medium-high
Potental loss: 8.395%
Cut loss price: $0.742
MiddleEastD:
Direction: Price Stabilizing at the moment.
Possible movement: Might be facing a possible secondary downtrend.
Risk Rating: High
Potental loss: 14.49%
Cut loss price: $0.295
After the analysis, three stocks needs extra attention. Rotary(the decision whether to reduce its position), NobleGroup(the sudden dip in prices), AsiaEnv(Profit warning signs by Dayen)
Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:06 AM |
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| Friday, April 27, 2007 |
| Quickie |
Tomorrow's another exam.. so this will be a quick post. Will elaborate more tomorrow evening.
Ho Bee: Loaded more as intended. However, prices did not break as I believed it would be. Maybe it would take longer than expected.
Rotary: Still held on to it. I must really rethink whether I should reduce my position. It is showing a downtrend as indicated by the SAR. MACD, ADX and RSI don't show favorable conditions about it.
Noblegroup: Nothing to say about. Trend looks strong
ChinaAviOil: Its showing more and more traits similar to Golden Agri. Guess that's what happens when you shoot up too fast. Might have to sell if it breaches my CPL, but nothing to worry about as of now.
BioTreat: Looking at the long term trend, it is slowly climbing up. Maybe its too slow, and it does not seem to have the strength to pick up. Nothing to worry at this point.
AsiaEnv: Nice looking trend. However, the momentum seems to have ran its course. Might be a small retracement, but things should look fine, barring any major catastrophic events
MiddleEastDevelopment: Picked some up @ $0.345 due to nice trends. Today seems to be a good opportune to buy. Price will most prob stay around here for sometime. Nothing much to say as well.
BrightWorld: Picked some too @ 0.475. Watching this stock but unable to enter due to lack of funds. Should have entered at an earlier price but I don't have enough money. Nothing much to say at the moment.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:49 PM |
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| Monday, April 23, 2007 |
| 23rd April 2007 |
Well well, today is a weird day. Most of my stocks hit a high which is a new high, but then closes much lower.
CAO
- Going through a consolidation phase in my opinion
- SAR shows reversal in trend (secondary)
- MACD diverge downwards
- RSI still healthy though
- Volume traded decreases, which might be an indication that the accumulation is coming to an end
- Verdict: Still vested and nothing to worry about
Golden Agri
- SAR close to reversal
- MACD going to touch and diverge soon
- RSI is still too high, so its expected that it will fall
- Fall in volume today might be a sign of accumulation
- Verdict: Vested however, will keep close tabs on it
Ho Bee
- SAR close to reversing back to uptrend
- MACD still diverging downwards
- RSI goes below 50% indicating a slightly weak market
- Verdict: Vested, keep close tabs on it, might increase stake on it depending on its strength of the trend
Olam
- Very resilient, seems close to reversing, but still doing ok
- Should be reversing downwards soon
- Verdict: Vested, and nothing much to worry about
Raffles Edu
- Going down at the moment
- All indicators pointing south
- EMA cut will soon trigger the sales of this equity
- Verdict: Might not be vested by Wednesday. Much is dependent on tomorrow's result.
Rotary
- Might be going up again.
- Nothing has changed much since last trading day
- Verdict: Vested and will be patientLabels: ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:28 PM |
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| Thursday, April 19, 2007 |
| Red Sea Fishing |
As expected, Ascott hit the trigger. Due to CFD, exposure to risk is higher, that is the reason why loss have to be cut ASAP. Sold at 1.70.
Another red flag is Raffles Eductaion. Not as bad as ascott as it's not a CFD item. However, I should keep an eye tomorrow.
Rotary another CFD, brings up some concern. As my positions are bought in progressively, costs incurred for rolling the contract is getting huge. I am now considering selling and then buying again so that CFD transaction costs will be minimized in the future. This might prove a good time to sell as prices might fall for a while.
Does this move contradict my style? Maybe. but this is for the sake of minimizing transaction costs.
My price fell $0.06 to $1.34 while STI fell to $1.35.
Possible reasons:
1) The CFD rolling charges are being significant
-> Consider "Rebalancing" the CFD accounts to minimize transactions costs.
2) Selection should be more stringent. Letting the cash lie there is better than just hopping on a uptrending stock
-> degree of trending and volume should be taken into consideration
HoBee taking a breather. All should be ok despite the negative short term trends
Olam has finally stopped its move and taking a break. Would most probably show negative short term trends too. I will most probably ignore short term trends. The tricky part is to differentiate secondary and primary downtrend.
CAO has slowed down too..
Golden Agri will follow suit too..Labels: Ascott, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:39 PM |
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| Tuesday, April 17, 2007 |
| 17April2007 |
My gap with STI is narrowed to a difference of 0.01.
Ascott dropped to $1.75. It doesn't help when its cut loss point is below my buying point.
- The MACD line touched the signal line from above, might indicate a secondary downtrend
- RSI has gone below the overbought area and close to the 50% mark. An indication of selling presence.
- The parabolic Stop and Reverse might be touching the price soon. (an indication that a down trend will follow)
- Overall indication are showing signs of a downtrend(most probably a secondary one). The main deciding factor, which is the moving average still healthy (didn't evaluate it based on my criteria due to the fact I'm revising for exams. So its eyeballs for now)
ChinaAviationOil dropped to $1.53. Similar to Ascott, CAO seems to be taking a breather after the recent surge.
- MACD is slightly below the signal line although not by much. Can see from the lack of momentum at this moment. Most probably people are accumulating at the moment.
- RSI showed that market strength dropped back to reasonable range after being in the overbought zone for a while.
- Parabolic SAR seems to approach the price as well. It is normal as every price chart goes up and down. This is just an indicator to show the possibility of reversal in trend.
-Trend is firmly up, no questions about it.
Golden Agriculture dropped again to $2.72. Similar to CAO, due to its meteoric rise, it is understandable. If we use Fibonacci lines, a possible support line could be at $2.50. I don't really believe in that though.
- MACD is showing signs of convergence.
- RSI is still overbought
- Par SAR still some distance
Stock might continue to slide but these are just indicators. Decision will still be based on the price trends, which is still healthy.
Ho Bee is currently undergoing some down trend. I decided not to do anything as its nothing serious and I do not want to incur transaction costs unnecessarily.
- Indicators are similar to golden agriculture except the part in which Par SAR has already been flipped.
Olam dropped to $3.46. This is a strong stock in my opinion. Trend is strong and there is no indication of an obvious retracement. During the correction, Olam, along with CAO and golden Agri, were not seriously affected. This might mean that investors there are unlike me..(haha). Nothing but praise for this stock.
RafflesEdu's price increase to $2.44. The slow mover of the lot (along with Ascott), its main purpose is to ensure that I have some growth in my portfolio as it is rising slow and steady. Watching grass grow might be more interesting than watching this stock.
-MACD indicates no momentum
- RSI shows slightly strong market
- Par SAR still way off to "flipping"
Patience is the key.
Rotary rose today to $1.06. Might be because of the $34mil news. Maybe the price is factored into it already. I entered more positions today, increasing my average to $0.968.
All indicators are healthy. No point saying more.
All in all, today is a breather day for most of my holdings.. Patience is the key, and don't bee too rash (itchy fingers) like before.
Cheers all!Labels: Ascott, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:25 PM |
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| Monday, April 02, 2007 |
| April 2nd |
What a day.. I'm burnt out due to school work.. and when I reached home.. i saw HoBee zoomed up again. Rotary finally moved after the long wait.. Others are not worth mentioning as they are still at where they are.
Guess for this month, I'll update once a week.. too tired...Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:45 PM |
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| Saturday, March 31, 2007 |
| Bright closing to the quarter |
As the quarter draws to a close, things seems to look brighter now.
Ascott, which was a moderately risky buy, was at 1.71 upon close from a buy price of 1.67.
ChinaAviation oil, which broke out, yet has little volatility, was at a price of 1.53, from a buy price of 1.15.
CDL HTrust, which was a moderately risk buy as well, was at 1.99 upon close from a buy price of 2.05.
Hobee, a buy at 1.87, is now trading at 2.26.
RafflesEducation, a buy at 2.34, is lingering around 2.31
Olam, a buy at 2.87, is now at 3.06. wonder if it will hit the previous high of 3.30 soon
GoldenAgri, a buy at 1.74, is now at 1.76. One of the unfazed stocks during the correction, it is now growing steadily.
Rotary, a buy at 0.925 after recent averaging, is now trading at a price of 0.93.
All seems well at the moment, but "everything is a lie until it is realized". So at the moment, all these paper profits have no bearings on me.Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:50 AM |
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| Friday, March 23, 2007 |
| 23rd March Updates |
It has been an experience since the past few weeks. Sudden price slides, panic etc etc comes into picture. So much for trying to keep myself emotionally detached.
From the correction, i was a loser. I sold when there isn't a need to. KepT&T was the stock to be exact. BanyanTree was within my stop loss limit, so it's all within the plan even though it was a wrong choice to sell.
This week proves to be an ok week for me, with various mixed results.
Ascott, which I bought at $1.67 closes at $1.63.
- Rating: 6
- Need to be slightly cautious though
CDL HTrust, which I bought at $2.05 closes at $1.95
- Rating: 6
- Some of the indicators are at moderate level
ChinaAviationOil, which I bought at $1.15 closes at $1.34
- Rating: 8
- Strong breakout at my buying price and strong indicator support justifies a potential runner for the year
GoldenAgri, which I bought at $1.74 closes at $1.75
- Rating: 7
- This together with CAO, are the two stocks in my portfolio with the least risk.
- Slow but steady runner.
HoBee, which I bought at $1.86 closes at $1.94
- Rating: 8
- A healthy chart, with moderate risk rating.
Olam, which I bought at $2.87 closes at $3.02
- Rating: 8
- One of the higher risk rating stocks in my portfolio, along with RafflesEdu and Rotary
RafflesEdu, which I bought at $2.34 closes at $2.30
- Rating: 7
- It exhibits similar charting characteristics as Olam.
Rotary, which I bought at averaged $0.919 closes at $0.91
- Rating: 7
- Might not have movement anytime sooner.
Thats all for this week, and hope I have time to update next week. Academic exams and project deadlines are coming soon.. Another obstacle waiting to be beaten!Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:19 PM |
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| Tuesday, March 13, 2007 |
| Unlucky 13? |
Bought Ho Bee @1.86
Rotary @0.915
CDL HTrust @2.05
Today don't look good. Now is the time that I must have faith in my system and what I'm doing.Labels: CDL HTrust, HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:46 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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