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| Monday, November 19, 2007 |
| Recent Trade Losses |
I have decided to cut on my trades. It is a painful decision and I will discuss about the issues in the later posts. CFD: OKP buy price: 0.775 OKP sell price: 0.690 Profit/Loss: -54.83% CASH: CAO buy price: 2.67 (Ave) CAO sell price: 2.122 (Ave) Profit/Loss: -20.5% FerroChina buy price: 2.505 (Ave) FerroChina sell price: 2.25 (Ave) Profit/Loss: -10.17% PacAndes buy price: 0.8225 (Ave) PacAndes sell price: 0.685 (Ave) Profit/Loss: -16.71% Labels: ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
posted by Nenix @ 4:14 PM   |
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| Wednesday, October 24, 2007 |
| Actions I took on 24th October 2007 |
Below is the summary of the course of actions for today. This is taken from the previous post. To all readers, I know at the moment, this is a bit disorganized and I will sort this Scenario Analysis out in the future. Anyway, to make a brief explanation of the steps, step 1 signifies the possible scenarios that might happen and my course of action. Step 2 is a level deeper than that and etc. I wanted to write out a documentation for it but due to lack of time, I feel this is the best method to remind myself not to make impulsive buys (My ideal of documentation will have valuation based on surface technicals and fundamentals, with a more detailed analysis of both schools in part 2, followed by the course of actions [This step is important as I tend to be impulsive in both buying and selling]) Anyway, the actions I took will be in blue fonts. And the red wordings are comments of my actions
Cash: AsiaEnv-
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
1. A price queue of $0.68 would be pushing it. Depends on sentiment, if Dow closes badly, will queue at $0.67 (maximum 6 bids regulation), else will queue at $0.685-$0.69 for my Tier 3.
*Tier 3 is loaded at 0.695. Not exactly to plan though. $0.695 based on sentiment today, is a good price. However, should I be more patient with my third tier? Maybe I should, but now what I'm left is the ultra short term Tier 4, which is powered by CFD.
1. A price of $0.78 by this week will warrant some profit taking
2. As the EMA cut is gentle in nature, it does not necessarily mean that its a down trend, it just signifies the continual of consolidation. A price of $0.65 will cause the Tier 4 (CFD) to be loaded.
2. A price of $0.635 will trigger a cut loss signal
PacAndes-
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
1. Depending on the close of Dow today, a gain in Dow would mean that the buying price will be $0.805. if Dow don't do well, I could actually try $0.795
*Tier 2 loaded at $0.81. As mentioned, this is a good price to enter based on sentiment today. If you try to understand how the market reacts, sometimes good sentiments will drive the prices up. Sentiment is definitely a catalyst.
1. Surge in price will not warrant a profit taking as I only have 1 portion of shares
2. EMA cut is not an isse. The reason is the same as in asiaEnv
2. Price of $0.785 will warrant a buy order for third and final tier
ChinaAOil-
Course of Action (23rd Octboer 2007 to 26th October 2007)
1. Buy at around $2.7 for tier 2
1. Don't buy at any price higher than $2.72 as consolidation might be stretched
*Queued at $2.72, which I manage to buy in the end
2. Trigger loss is at $2.55
2. No profit taking as current holding is a first tier stock
FerroChina-
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 27th Octover 2007)
1. Buy 2nd Tier at most $2.44 only. Will not pay more as of 23rd October
*Bought at $2.44. Maybe at a high price, but prices have reached the bottom already.
1. No profit taking as I do not have many holdings
2. Smooth cutting of EMA is not indicative of a down trend. Unable to tell if its smooth at the moment but will cut if its an abrupt drop and it cuts EMAs
3. Tier three buying would have to be funded by sales of other counters but this scenario will happen if EMA smoothens. Price to buy will be around $2.30Labels: AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:46 AM |
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| Tuesday, October 23, 2007 |
| Actions I might take tomorrow |
What if it rebounds slightly?
So what happpens if prices rebounds slightly today? A weak increase which do not cover the gap would mean that confidence is still not here yet. If it happens, wait. Remember after hitting the bottom, prices will consolidate. So rather buy at a higher price with positive technical indicators than lower price with too many unknown factors.
Today rebounded slightly, so I shall look at my holdings in particular
CFD:
AdvSCT-
Chart Analysis
- Today's the price patterns show that buying sentiment is not strong enough to push.
- Increasing volume seem more promising though
- Momentum has dried for the moment as MACD is rather flat
- MFI has shown a decline
Verdict
It has been going on strongly for the past few days and while overall indicators are still promising, we are experiencing a bit of a pullback. Most probably mild and it won't be surprising if it drops back to $1.02 by end of the week.
Course of Actions (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
- 1. Price drop to $1.01 --> Top up using CFD as second Tier
- 1. Price increase to $1.20 this week --> Sell for profit taking
- 2. Price drop to $0.985 --> Top up using CFD for third Tier
- 3. Price drop to $0.950 --> A sharp cut in EMA and with sharp drop in MFI and MACD would trigger a sell (Can't quantify it as of now)
- 3. EMA cut down trigger --> Will sell regardless of loss (This is my fundamental cut loss trigger)
Cash:
AsiaEnv-
Chart Analysis
- Price charts promising as of yesterday's rebound. Signify that selling power is rather weak
- Decreasing volume on a down trend shows that the selling is decreasing. This signifies that a change in trend is possible
- MFI looks poised for a rebound
- 26d EMA and 12dEMA are closing in showing either a possible down trend or bounce off support, though the latter is more likely due to other supporting indicators
- MACD however, still shows weakness and has not shown any recovery
Verdict Most indicators shows that consolidation period is coming to an end, with the exception of the MACD indicators. Tomorrow will be a good day to buy. Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007) - 1. A price queue of $0.68 would be pushing it. Depends on sentiment, if Dow closes badly, will queue at $0.67 (maximum 6 bids regulation), else will queue at $0.685-$0.69 for my Tier 3.
- 1. A price of $0.78 by this week will warrant some profit taking
- 2. As the EMA cut is gentle in nature, it does not necessarily mean that its a down trend, it just signifies the continual of consolidation. A price of $0.65 will cause the Tier 4 (CFD) to be loaded.
- 2. A price of $0.635 will trigger a cut loss signal
PacAndes-
Chart Analysis
- Strong rebound indicates that selling pressure has hit its limits.
- Similar to AsiaEnv, which I have been comparing to recently, volume decreases with down trend signifies a consolidation of a bull run
- Remarkably, the all indicators with the exception of MFI is similar to AsiaEnv
- MFI has rebounded instead of showing potential signs of rebounding.
Verdict
Rebounding strongly, and showing decreasing selling pressure, it all points to a good rebound. Will buy tomorrow.
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 26th October 2007)
- 1. Depending on the close of Dow today, a gain in Dow would mean that the buying price will be $0.805. if Dow don't do well, I could actually try $0.795
- 1. Surge in price will not warrant a profit taking as I only have 1 portion of shares
- 2. EMA cut is not an isse. The reason is the same as in asiaEnv
- 2. Price of $0.785 will warrant a buy order for third and final tier
ChinaAOil-
Chart Analysis - Decreasing volume with decreasing price means consolidation in bull run
- Sellers are decreasing
- Volatility is decreasing
- MFI shows a reversal
- MACD doesn't indicate a reversal
Verdict Might be a good price to buy. However, not as confident as asiaEnv and pacAndes. This is a pricey stock and I do not have enough for three tiers. Will queue at the support though Course of Action (23rd Octboer 2007 to 26th October 2007) - 1. Buy at around $2.7 for tier 2
- 1. Don't buy at any price higher than $2.72 as consolidation might be stretched
- 2. Trigger loss is at $2.55
- 2. No profit taking as current holding is a first tier stock
FerroChina-
Chart Analysis
- Weak recovery today. Little conviction to push up the price
- Decreasing volume with price means that it is undergoing consolidation
- MACD doesnt show indication of any reversal
- MFI has bounced of it "low" though
Verdict
Similar to CAO, this is showing some form of consolidation. This unlike CAO, seems fake. Gapped down trades 3 days ago brought to me that the seller might be trying to push for more selling. The least convincing among my other counters. I will be queuing but I wont be getting any at a premium as of now. I wouldn't mind buying higher if a reversal in trend is confirmed
Course of Action (23rd October 2007 to 27th Octover 2007)
- 1. Buy 2nd Tier at most $2.44 only. Will not pay more as of 23rd October
- 1. No profit taking as I do not have many holdings
- 2. Smooth cutting of EMA is not indicative of a down trend. Unable to tell if its smooth at the moment but will cut if its an abrupt drop and it cuts EMAs
- 3. Tier three buying would have to be funded by sales of other counters but this scenario will happen if EMA smoothens. Price to buy will be around $2.30
Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:58 PM |
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| Thursday, October 18, 2007 |
| Correction not over but... |
Alright, it was a mistake bailing out of CAO and FerroChina as both did not hit the trigger. However, while I was lucky with FerroChina, which I bought at lower price, I wasn't as lucky with CAO.
Loaded small positions on AsiaEnv @ 0.715, PacAndes @ 0.835 and CAO @ 2.89.
Not very good prices but these are only the first batches.
FOMC is on 31st October, China facing a possible pullback at the moment, Bombay having issues with their own exchanges. Thus as a result, there is no hurry to load positions as there will be more downside in the short term. The reason I loaded those is more of staking claim to a position first as it is still more probable to see the price at year end higher than the prices which I bought.
We have approximately 2 weeks before the rate cut. If DJ surges till the meeting, any decision other than a rate cut will cause a correction in DJ, and from STI's trading pattern, we would definitely follow in a more magnified scale.
However, if DJ were to go down mildly for the next few weeks, STI would most probably trade sideways, but while DJ will still go down if there is no cut, STI might have been near its bottom already.
Furthermore, with China showing a possible correction now, what we need is some cooling off before we could see the continual of the next run.
In fact, next two weeks will be as choppy as the past few days. If you ask me what are my plans, it is to free up cash and wait to get some counters on the cheap, which is what I'm doing, despite being not that effective.Labels: AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:18 PM |
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| Tuesday, October 09, 2007 |
| CFD Clearance move |
I really don't know what gotten into me, but I closed my positions for advSCT, AsiaEnv, PacAndes.
AdvSCT was cost averaged at $0.9725 and sold at $1.02. Because you only need to pay 1/5 of the total cost, my percentage gain based on that position is approximately 24.42%.
AsiaEnv was cost averaged at $0.67875 and it was sold at $0.765. Percentage gain based on that position is approximately 12.707%.
PacAndes was bought at $0.73 and it was sold at $0.835. Percentage gain based on that position is approximately 14.383%
Bought MMP Reit at $1.20 today. My rationale at the time was to make sure that I can capitalise on the capital returns in a month's time or park it aside while waiting for oppurtunities to come. I knew that MMP Reit is a stable stock that doesn't move much so downside risk is quite limited. But the same goes for its upside potential. Furthermore, parking it like that does incur needless charges. I see this move as a big mistake, firstly, because I bought on impulse thinking that it is a bargain, and secondly, while it is a bargain, the transaction costs would have eroded all returns. I will give myself 1 month before I close this postion.
On the whole, while I profited from today's trade, I understand that I did not follow the rules I set. Partly because fear set in as CFD is a double-edged sword. Afterall, I'm still very interested in these counters and I will most probably be coming back for 1 of them when the prices are correcting, which they most probably are now.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, MMPReit, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 5:57 PM |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Wednesday, February 28, 2007 |
| Big Sale Pt2 |
Many of my equities have met the stopper.
Sold KepT&T @1.98 --> +15.7% returns in 15days
Sold PacAndes @0.89 --> -10.55% returns in 7days
Sold EDMI @0.31 --> -4.61% returns in 30days
Labels: EDMI, KepTandT, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:23 PM |
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| Wednesday, February 21, 2007 |
| 21st Feb Trades |
Sold MMI @ $1.46. Growth might be slowing.
MMI returns of +9.77% in 21 days.
(STI gained 3.6% during this period, MMI gained 9.77% --> +6.17%)
With more capital in hand, I decided to purchase PacAndes again.
There is rationale behind this move as momentum seems to be building up
Bought PacAndes @ $0.995Labels: MMI, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 5:48 PM |
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| Thursday, February 15, 2007 |
| 15th Feb clearout *edited |
Some of the momentum seems to have lost steam. To me, absolute returns are more important than paper gains. Well, I might have lesser returns than others but at least I have reasonable returns
Sold Pac Andes at $0.975. Though it has healthy trends, however, since I bought it at the middle of the trend growth, risk of getting negative returns is higher if I followed my system. Furthermore, the momentum seems to have lost steam and people are starting to sell.
(Crap, immediately after I sold, it surged to $1. haha. what the hell right)
PacAndes returns of +19% in 31 days.
(STI gained 5% during this period, PacAndes gained 10% --> +5%)
Sold BH Gloabl at $0.41. Despite good dividends coming, people are selling, momentum is gone. Like PacAndes, the fact that I bought quite late in a trend creates a risk of negative returns.
BH Global returns of +2.5% in 28 days.
(STI gained 4% during this period, BH Global gained 4% --> +0%)
Sold Synear at $2.02. No dividends but the reason is the same as the other 2.
Synear returns of +14.12% in 28 days.
(STI gained 4% during this period, Synear gained 16% --> +12%)
Sold MediaRing at $0.405. Stopped loss even though its too late. Another case whereby I hope things will go out all right. Well, it shouldn't be used as an excuse. So I have to buck up.
MediaRing returns of -12.09% in 17 days. (shouldn't have followed my heart. Mechanically, I should have sold at 0.425. Though still a loss, but at least its cut shorter.. )
(STI gained +1.5% during this period, MediaRing gained -11% --> -12.5%)Labels: BH Global, MediaRing, PacAndes, Synear |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:25 AM |
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| Monday, January 15, 2007 |
| Purchase of PacAndes |
PacAndes showing upward trends. Might be a bit slow moving. Will be monitored for a week before making any decision.
Bought at $0.815Labels: PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:36 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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