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| Saturday, September 22, 2007 |
| 21st September update |
 This week seems ok for me. After the fed cut, what surprised me is that most of the pennies did not move as expected. Maybe because the Singaporean culture is "kiasi", that's why most will wait and see. And then when it reaches unrealistic levels, they will be "kiasu" and chase the price.
Anyway, this month, I am quite pleased with what I have done. I have set acquired positions when the trend (both middle term and short term) just picks up. Ideally, this is the signal I would like. Although there are hiccups during this month, ChipengSeng and Yongnam in particular, I guess I am still decisive enough to cut my losses. Putting these stocks for a longer term basis, the cut loss triggers would naturally be lower and it is dangerous as it is possible that I might have the "hold-it-since-I-already-lost-so-much" mentality.
On the other hand, there are still critical issues that I did this month. The purchase of AsiaEnv using CFD is not a wise choice. Even though calculated, I should have known not use CFD as the trend is still not established. CAO also proves to be an issue even though it's still sitting nice in the longer term perspective.
Now my portfolio has been properly segmented. I have to count myself lucky to be able to have sufficient funds to do that.
My long term funds include:
STI ETF
MMP Reit
Gold 10US$
These 3 adds up to 18.72%, which is ideal from my point of view as I have an estimated target of 20% to 25%. The strategy to load up should be similar to how I invest in other equities. Make sure that the trend is present before loading up.
My other shares are mostly middle term and most of my counters are surprisingly from the Oil and Gas sector. I can assure you that this is purely coincidental as I purchased stocks through formation of trends. And they were the first to exhibit trends after the huge correction not so long ago.
Among all, CWT proves to be a surprise package. Strong momentum pushing it forward triggers my buying signal. Furthermore, it seems to be away from noise trading (contra traders, day traders etc). In fact, I'm quite glad most forums didn't talk about it. Hopefully it will continue to rise silently.
My thoughts on the economy:
This is my amateurish 2cents worth of the economy. I think there are at most 3 more distinct bull runs till recession hits US. Fed cuts doesn't seem to address the issues except instill more liquidity. This, in my opinion gives the market a chance to bail out the main players. If you think about it, who is still going to suffer? I think the retailers will still be the one absorbing the risks. At this moment, the players are going to withdraw their funds and my guess is they are going to channel it to Asia. Asia is slowly decoupling from the US fundamentally, and that is a good thing in my opinion. China's influence is growing and it seems that the bubble is closely managed by China. Don't think it will crash so soon though. There will be lots of new regulations and many many corrections along the way but I think its nothing serious.
In the local context, I will just have to say, Singapore isn't world class at all. The investors are just too kiasi. Its too sentiment driven in my opinion causing systematic risks in Singapore to be quite high (hopefully, this is the correct term). We have a lack of strong hands and maybe more funds from fundamental companies will be able to guide this kiasi market.
1) I think we will have more lousy days than good ones but the good run ups will be fast and furious.
2) The run up should start soon all the way till year end so the rational thing to do is to hold.
3) Short term indicators might not be overly effective as it is whipsawing too frequently now.
Anyway, to cut the long story short, investing at this moment might still be risky as global climate is still shaky. However, now might be a good time to enter as most investors have already factored in the subprime issues. China's economy might be crucial as well as it has a strong impact on sentiment here. Relative risk free commodities like Gold are showing good trends and I have thus ride on the boat even though the intention is more long term than short.
Sit tight, and enjoy the ride...Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
posted by Nenix @ 1:52 PM   |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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