No one expected this recent drawdown, and thus I thought my 2nd level of buying are spot on. But then I was wrong. I didn't expect it to go so much lower. And now I'm facing liquidity issues. Some are still sitting on long term up trends even though they are facing slowdowns/retracement. Ideally I would like to buy at the support level of the long term trend but I'm facing a shortage of cash for it. In the end, I had no choice but to offload my shares.
LyxorChinaH:
This is one of my only counters which tap on markets outside Singapore. Strategically, it is a good positioning as it targets on the China shares in Hong Kong. Furthermore, HangSeng is much more resilient than in Singapore as their market recovers much faster. Another thing to note is that Singapore likes to mirror Hang Seng’s movement. All this reasons makes it a strategically sound position to hold. However, like most counters across the board, it is currently undergoing a price correction. It is actually more severe than most as many deemed the valuations of H-Shares to be too high and charts do not lie as it does shows weakness in the trend. Unlike movement of other counters, this counter’s volume doesn’t decrease together with the price which underlines a bearish tone in this counter. Having bought at US$16.90 on 23rd August, I have sold at US$21.50. My cut loss is at $22, but I didn’t want to let go as I was having a mini Identity Crisis (read previous postings). Anyway, after taking into account conversion rates, transaction costs and whatnots, I have managed a 20.92% return, which is not bad. I will reconsider re-entering if it goes to $19. But I have to consider the US rates as I do not want my holdings to be excessively eroded by the decreasing rates. A price of $18++ would be wishful thinking, but I would 100% enter this position if it goes below $19 anytime soon. Gold: I have no idea if this was a wrong investment. My brother told me it’s quite silly to diversify like this and maybe it is true. However, I wanted this to be a long term counter. It is supposed to be kept for like years. But its US denomination made the counter less attractive. I bought on 19th September at US$71.60 and sold at US$80.90. After deduction of all costs, I managed a 5.79% return, which is ok, considering the time vested. I will take a look at it again in the future when I have more cash in hand, maybe placing my opportunity funds in indexes and gold funds would be a good idea, although I have to analyze it more carefully again next time. STI-ETF: Another long term stock being offloaded because of my poor management in averaging my other counters. Bought at a price of $33.80, I sold recently at a price of $36.08. A return of about 4.993% kind shows how desperate I am in offloading a long term counter. Nothing much to say about this, only that it has been time proven that indexes in the long run has more than 8% annual returns compounded. ChinaAOil: I used part of the cash to top up the supposed 3rd tier of CAO at $2.31. As stated in various postings, CAO shows huge buy up volumes and low sell volumes. I have no idea who are the major players of the counters and why the lack of analyst coverage for this counter. This brings my average to $2.62, which is at the support level for the weekly charts. Conclusion: The global economy is seeing some consolidation and it is coming to an end soon. The direction that it sets following the consolidation will determine if it’s the last leg of the bull or first leg of the bear. Nonetheless, most of the problems stem from the States. While China is having issues like inflation as well, coupled with soaring food prices, it seems likely that regulations will be placed to curb inflation. This is also the reason why SSE is showing a correction as well. Most of my counters have affiliation with China, (FerroChina, ChinaAviationOil, AsiaEnv, PacAndes) and though it is a risk by itself for focusing too much on China, it can be seen that the global trend points to Asia in general. As for asset management, I now have some free float cash and I am not eager to plunge right into it. I have learnt that while that gives you good returns in the short run, in the event of a correction, it might just harm you. My main objective now is to accumulate free cash first (which I might invest in index, gold etc etc). Next, while accumulating, I will look for opportunities to: 1) Top up 2nd tiers for Tat Hong (Around $2.45 would be excellent) 2) Top up 3rd tier for PacAndes (Note that at the moment, prices are fluctuating wildly around the long term support level and it could go either way. This explains why I am unwilling to top up the 3rd tier now). 3) Top up 3rd tier for FerroChina ($2.19 would be a good price too) For 3rd tiers, I should NEVER be too hasty to go in because what goes down will go down further. There’s no need to be too fussy about picking the bottom as it is too difficult. Instead, the more important concept is to ensure that it has already reversed. Meanwhile, I will keep a lookout for counters which shows macro uptrend. Labels: Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, NenixDreams Fund, STI ETF100 |
