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| Tuesday, July 31, 2007 |
| 31st July 2007 update |
Today isn't a good day for me, all my holdings are down. I've decided to post my analysis and hopefully get something out of it.
Tiongwoon.
Trend
5d EMA has crossed the 26d EMA with the 12d EMA going closer to crossing the 26dEMA. Sell trigger is on situations whereby 12d EMA crosses the 26d EMA. Trend at the moment dont look good as it seems to be reversing soon or going through a possible long consolidation phase. One positive to note is that the volume transacted since May 2007 has been decreasing till today. With lesser volume, it could be interpreted that a breakout might be imminent.
I feel reversal can be observed tomorrow, even though it might be a weak one due to macro issues. Consolidation phase might be over soon due to diminishing volumes. The only issue is that the MAs might crossover, triggering my sell signal.
Momentum
Looking quite awful and it should be the same for the majority of stocks. It showed indication of a pullback last Thursday before the selldown on Friday. There might be a possibility that contra players at this point burnt themselves with today being the "Force Selling" day. Judging from momentum, it does not seem to be over yet.
Market Strength
The MFI shows that it is falling and there are no indication of a turnaround.
Overall Verdict
Trend looks ok, even though it is close to selling signal. One thing to take comfort is from the decreasing volume since May. Momentum and Market is strength is understandably weak due to uncertainty in global markets. I will hold till tomorrow at least before making any decisions.
OKP
Trend
Since mid-July, it has already begun its consolidation state, so there is nothing much to worry about. Again, thinning of volume traded can be observed. This shows that not much shares are changing hands. This might mean that no one is willing to sell, at least at this low price. I have no idea when this consolidation will end, but I am quite confident that this trend will remain intact.
Momentum
Awful looking, but its within expectation
Market Strength
The MFI shows that it is falling and there are no indication of a turnaround.
Overall Verdict
Everything regarding OKP(technicals) is still looking healthy. A consolidation/correction is essential so that shares fall in longer term investors. More people holding means lesser shares available to change hands. This will lead to higher demand and thus push the price further up.
FerroChina
Trend
The gap down is slightly worrisome. Trends are still intact even though like TW, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. Volume seems to be high these few days and it seems worrisome as well. Longer term trends still look ok and it will resume its upward movement soon.
Momentum
Turned bad recently and this might be the beginning.
Market Strength
The MFI has reached 50% even though 1 positive point is that it is not falling as sharply as previous days. It might have reached the bottom of the "selling"
Overall Verdict
Good long term trends, lousy short term ones. Heavy selling recently doesn't help its cause. Momentum just turned sour, with market strength reaching 50% mark. This might mean that I entered at the beginning of consolidation but it might be recovering due to neutral movement of MFI. I shall just wait and see.
ChinaAOil
Trend
Good uptrend overall, even though it is consolidating now.
Momentum
Maybe its due to macro conditions, but the full wave of the momentum is getting smaller and smaller. A bigger correction in CAO might be coming soon.
Market Strength
Being below 50%, it is in a more oversold territory. Its MFI movement is rather sideways, thus might mean that it might be reversing up.
Overall Verdict
Absolutely beautiful trend. However, as each increase in price is getting smaller, it can be deduced (my own guess) that a correction of a bigger magnitude for CAO might be coming soon. Maybe, it can touch $2. 70. and maybe at that point, my selling signal will trigger and I can liquidate this position.
BrightWorld
Trend
Good uptrend, this is one stock that my entry point is near the ideal point, thus capturing the whole "meat" of the trend. At the moment, trend still looks healthy. Volume still decreasing and my guess is accumulation is still in progress.
Momentum
The mini-bull run of this stock recently is going to come to an end soon. Afterwhich we might observe a period of consolidation.
Market Strength
Suprisingly, the MFI has beeen increasing and has hit 80%. If it manages to hit 80%, it will continue to surge up till the point its overbought.
Overall Verdict
Good trend on decreasing volume. Price might surge sooner rather than later and it is further supported by the MFI. MACD however is indicating that momentum has waned. Again, momentum might not be a good indicator now as most stocks have high selling momentum now.
Seksun
Trend
Catching it at the point after its surge at the end of a consolidation, it is always risky if I'm too late into the trend. Volume shows no indication of investors holding on and it can go either way, even though longer trend is healthy.
Momentum
Quite weak. Might be affected by the market on the whole.
Market Strength
MFI turned south, most prob due to the overal market sentiment.
Overall Verdict
Healthy trends but volume exchanged does not indicate well enough that it should go higher up. This view is reinforced by MFI, which is turning south and MACD, which is cutting the signal line soon. All I can say is that it is a good trending stock which is suppressed by negative market sentiments.
BioTreat
Trend
Re-entered due as it triggered my buying signal. Like Brightworld, this is my 2nd stock that I have entered based on my buying signal. Most of the stocks I have entered are rather late into the trend. Volume spike on 30th might be an indication of distribution. That's not good news if it happens so early in a reversal.
Momentum
Unfazed by the global selloff, it has good buying momentum.
Market Strength
MFI supports the whole uptrend as it approaches upwards towards the 80% mark.
Overall Verdict
Trend reversal plus breakout, even though the volume spike does make me cast my doubts. Hopefully its not those contra players as they will definitely inducce huge selling (thus pressing down the price) if things don't go their way.
Phew... finally, I'm done.. hopefully I wont be posting about my holdings tomorrow (this means that I'm not selling anything)Labels: Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, OKP, Seksun, TiongWoon |
posted by Nenix @ 9:07 PM   |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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