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| Tuesday, July 31, 2007 |
| 31st July 2007 update |
Today isn't a good day for me, all my holdings are down. I've decided to post my analysis and hopefully get something out of it.
Tiongwoon.
Trend
5d EMA has crossed the 26d EMA with the 12d EMA going closer to crossing the 26dEMA. Sell trigger is on situations whereby 12d EMA crosses the 26d EMA. Trend at the moment dont look good as it seems to be reversing soon or going through a possible long consolidation phase. One positive to note is that the volume transacted since May 2007 has been decreasing till today. With lesser volume, it could be interpreted that a breakout might be imminent.
I feel reversal can be observed tomorrow, even though it might be a weak one due to macro issues. Consolidation phase might be over soon due to diminishing volumes. The only issue is that the MAs might crossover, triggering my sell signal.
Momentum
Looking quite awful and it should be the same for the majority of stocks. It showed indication of a pullback last Thursday before the selldown on Friday. There might be a possibility that contra players at this point burnt themselves with today being the "Force Selling" day. Judging from momentum, it does not seem to be over yet.
Market Strength
The MFI shows that it is falling and there are no indication of a turnaround.
Overall Verdict
Trend looks ok, even though it is close to selling signal. One thing to take comfort is from the decreasing volume since May. Momentum and Market is strength is understandably weak due to uncertainty in global markets. I will hold till tomorrow at least before making any decisions.
OKP
Trend
Since mid-July, it has already begun its consolidation state, so there is nothing much to worry about. Again, thinning of volume traded can be observed. This shows that not much shares are changing hands. This might mean that no one is willing to sell, at least at this low price. I have no idea when this consolidation will end, but I am quite confident that this trend will remain intact.
Momentum
Awful looking, but its within expectation
Market Strength
The MFI shows that it is falling and there are no indication of a turnaround.
Overall Verdict
Everything regarding OKP(technicals) is still looking healthy. A consolidation/correction is essential so that shares fall in longer term investors. More people holding means lesser shares available to change hands. This will lead to higher demand and thus push the price further up.
FerroChina
Trend
The gap down is slightly worrisome. Trends are still intact even though like TW, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. Volume seems to be high these few days and it seems worrisome as well. Longer term trends still look ok and it will resume its upward movement soon.
Momentum
Turned bad recently and this might be the beginning.
Market Strength
The MFI has reached 50% even though 1 positive point is that it is not falling as sharply as previous days. It might have reached the bottom of the "selling"
Overall Verdict
Good long term trends, lousy short term ones. Heavy selling recently doesn't help its cause. Momentum just turned sour, with market strength reaching 50% mark. This might mean that I entered at the beginning of consolidation but it might be recovering due to neutral movement of MFI. I shall just wait and see.
ChinaAOil
Trend
Good uptrend overall, even though it is consolidating now.
Momentum
Maybe its due to macro conditions, but the full wave of the momentum is getting smaller and smaller. A bigger correction in CAO might be coming soon.
Market Strength
Being below 50%, it is in a more oversold territory. Its MFI movement is rather sideways, thus might mean that it might be reversing up.
Overall Verdict
Absolutely beautiful trend. However, as each increase in price is getting smaller, it can be deduced (my own guess) that a correction of a bigger magnitude for CAO might be coming soon. Maybe, it can touch $2. 70. and maybe at that point, my selling signal will trigger and I can liquidate this position.
BrightWorld
Trend
Good uptrend, this is one stock that my entry point is near the ideal point, thus capturing the whole "meat" of the trend. At the moment, trend still looks healthy. Volume still decreasing and my guess is accumulation is still in progress.
Momentum
The mini-bull run of this stock recently is going to come to an end soon. Afterwhich we might observe a period of consolidation.
Market Strength
Suprisingly, the MFI has beeen increasing and has hit 80%. If it manages to hit 80%, it will continue to surge up till the point its overbought.
Overall Verdict
Good trend on decreasing volume. Price might surge sooner rather than later and it is further supported by the MFI. MACD however is indicating that momentum has waned. Again, momentum might not be a good indicator now as most stocks have high selling momentum now.
Seksun
Trend
Catching it at the point after its surge at the end of a consolidation, it is always risky if I'm too late into the trend. Volume shows no indication of investors holding on and it can go either way, even though longer trend is healthy.
Momentum
Quite weak. Might be affected by the market on the whole.
Market Strength
MFI turned south, most prob due to the overal market sentiment.
Overall Verdict
Healthy trends but volume exchanged does not indicate well enough that it should go higher up. This view is reinforced by MFI, which is turning south and MACD, which is cutting the signal line soon. All I can say is that it is a good trending stock which is suppressed by negative market sentiments.
BioTreat
Trend
Re-entered due as it triggered my buying signal. Like Brightworld, this is my 2nd stock that I have entered based on my buying signal. Most of the stocks I have entered are rather late into the trend. Volume spike on 30th might be an indication of distribution. That's not good news if it happens so early in a reversal.
Momentum
Unfazed by the global selloff, it has good buying momentum.
Market Strength
MFI supports the whole uptrend as it approaches upwards towards the 80% mark.
Overall Verdict
Trend reversal plus breakout, even though the volume spike does make me cast my doubts. Hopefully its not those contra players as they will definitely inducce huge selling (thus pressing down the price) if things don't go their way.
Phew... finally, I'm done.. hopefully I wont be posting about my holdings tomorrow (this means that I'm not selling anything)Labels: Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, OKP, Seksun, TiongWoon |
posted by Nenix @ 9:07 PM   |
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| Friday, July 27, 2007 |
| BioTreat and OKP |
Technical indicators are giving a buy signal. Loaded some biotreat@ 0.930
Loaded some okp using CFD @ 0.93 with view that mid-term trend is still very much intact.Labels: Bio Treat, OKP |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:00 PM |
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| Wednesday, July 04, 2007 |
| Lessons from Bio Treat Trade |
What a noob I am. I have never experienced partial sales for my lots (Read: small player) and today, I just offloaded my BioTreat.
9am: queued at $0.865. Then I withdrawed as I think it could be closed at a higher price.
Little did I know that some of the position have been sold. But I didn realise that.
9+am: I sold everything at $0.875. This has left me some uncovered position. In the end, I have to buy the remainder at $0.865.
What a way to give money to my broker.. haha.
Today's fiasco reduced my average price to $0.886 it is compensated by an average sales price of $0.869. Loss is about 2% for the equity and most probably about less than 1% for the whole portfolio.Labels: Bio Treat |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:23 AM |
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| Tuesday, June 26, 2007 |
| Portfolio Updates |
Yesterday was too tired to update at night. But seems like most of my shares are retracing together with the market.
AsiaEnv - Its price movement is quite flimsy. Inability to sustain its price. Not on alert now but it seems like I need to keep an eye on it.
BioTreat - It is near my exit point. However, It will not be profitable if I exit. I might even incur losses.
Rotary - Its recent fall in price is a bit worrying. Maybe its due to profit taking after its recent climb. It doesn't help that the market is in a possible correction now.
OKP and TiongWoon - Both bought just before the fall. Can't complain much that it's at paper loss.
Seems like its another period whereby "PS3s" are lost day after day. haha.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, OKP, Rotary, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:21 AM |
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| Thursday, June 21, 2007 |
| Back to Reality |
After the mini-celebration for hitting the 60% mark, its time to go back down to Earth.
After today's close, there are some potential trend reversals in my portfolio.
1. MiddleEastD: SAR indicates a reversal/retracement is around the corner. MA is converging to the 26day line. Signs of growth of the stock slowing down. MACD is also showing bearish signs. One positive sign is that the volume today (5million) is hugely different from that of 1 week ago.(7 million). Contra players might be weeded out, thus consolidation phase might be complete soon. The cutloss is at $0.35 and it would be a test of nerve for me to hold out till then.
2. BioTreat: Retracement is underway. However, this phase seems to be coming to an end soon.
3. AsiaEnv: SAR indicates a reversal soon. MACD diverges downwards and away from the signal line. Retracement is in place. Judging from 1 lotters from times/sales, price might be suppressed by big players.
On the whole, things are ok, but I should always stay on my feet. These 3 are retracing and attention should be given to see if it retraces or reverseLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, MiddleEastD |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:05 AM |
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| Saturday, June 16, 2007 |
| Portfolio Analysis 16th June 2007 |
As mentioned, most of my holdings have reached the point of 'zero' risk. The only ones that still holds risk are MiddleEastD and BioTreat.
These two counters takes up 21% of my total risk set aside for my portfolio. So for the time being, the buffer is tremendously huge as 89% of risk is left unused. While I would love to take on a little more risk, it would extremely difficult to pull of as I need to transfer more funds to my CFD account. To take on the additional risk, I need to simulate a sudden correction and determine how I would react to it.
If there is one downside to my portfolio, it would be the fact that I didn't try to use up more risk limit. Reducing the buffer to 25% unused would be ideal.
Today has been a tiring day, most probably start my dossier on Sat. But its lots of info for me to print I guess, so seems like the printing is out, unless i divide my dossier into more parts, with one being the summary. We'll see when I started filling in the dataLabels: Bio Treat, MiddleEastD |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:20 AM |
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| Wednesday, June 13, 2007 |
| Recent Updates |
ChinaAviationOil - Slowly recovering from its retracement. Maybe 2 more weeks, and it shall embark on a new climb.
AsiaEnv -Still continuing its new climb. Nothing much to comment
BrightWorld - MACD showing signs of reversing. $0.60 seems to be its peak but as trend followers, lets see how far it goes
BioTreat - Still continuing its slow and steady climb. Nothing much to comment too
MiddleEastD - Going through what seems like a retracement, uptrend still intact though
Rotary - After a long consilidation, the breakout sure is significant. Might be increasing position tomorrowLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:30 AM |
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| Friday, June 08, 2007 |
| Brief Roundup for thursday |
Its Friday now, and due to Dow drop, it might drop today, but I will do a little roundup for yesterdays holding.
Rotary - Sudden breakout recently and while its MACD diverges, whether the momenttum will be build upon is another issue. I doubt the resistance will hold in today's drop though
BrightWorld - Since it's low of 30+ cents, it has been showing a strong reversal, which is reinforced when it passes the resistance of $0.45. This breakout, coupled with EMA crossovers, makes me sure that it is an uptrend. How long this can sustain, I don't know but it seems like it isn't stopping now. And personally I think it's a good thing that not many has noticed this stock (lesser volatilty due to band trading traders)
MiddleEastD - Similar to BrightWorld, since its low of 10+ cents, it has been showing a strong reversal, with further reinforcement as it breaks through the 30 cents mark. This one has lots of attention, as observed in SI forums. Not neccesarily a bad thing but it will most prob stay flat till demand > supply (meaning more long term holders holding it)
AsiaEnv - After the accumulation recently, it has begun to move. Whether its sustainable is another issue. But from evidence, it is on a healthy uptrend.
ChinaAviationOil - This accumulation is much longer than anticipated. Maybe the dash from $1.10 to $1.95 in less than 3 months is too much for it. Trend remains intact with strong support at $1.88-$1.91. Another push seems to be evident and we would have to wait and see.
BioTreat - Its puzzling when someone in SI mention that it is trading sideways. How is it sideways when the price increase from its low 50+cents to todays 90+ cents in around 7 months? 80% increase in this period of time isn't sideways, and to me, this is one of my prefered stocks. Steady growth without much hoo-ha about it. By the time hoo-haa comes in, it will most probably be more accelerated. Looking at how things are going, if not for the $1.03 surge recently, it would most probably continue its steady climb. But for now, it seems as though its waiting to weed out the contra players and the attention before continuing its climb.
Today will definitely see a drop. But its also a good time to tell which are resilent. Just like how I picked out HoBee, Golden Agri and CAO, I will be hoping to pick some gems if things turn sour.
Of cos, I will also close some of my positions as well if it triggers. More review will be done at the end of the day..Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:01 AM |
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| Monday, June 04, 2007 |
| Too pricey? |
As mentioned the day before, I went on to up my holdings.
Bought AsiaEnv @ 0.85
Bought ChinaAviation @ 1.98
Bought BioTreat @ 0.94
My bro told me its too pricey but to me, being a trend follower, it is showing a good trend, especially AsiaEnv, after a good Friday closing which shows a probable beginning of a new trend.
BioTreat is as usual climbing up slowly and steadily (barring the Friday surge in price).
For ChinaAviationOil, today might be the end of the consolidation period.
Pricey or not? We shall see in the futureLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, ChinaAviationOil |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:06 PM |
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| Increasing the position size |
Coming week, with a new injection of capital, I've decided to increase the stakes in AsiaEnv, BioTreat and ChinaAOil. I feel rather than overdiversification, concentration would be more ideal.
AsiaEnv shows a beginning of a possible upward movement together with BioTreat, while CAO is still in accumulating stage.
Coming week would be interesting on how things will pan outLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, ChinaAviationOil |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:48 AM |
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| Thursday, May 24, 2007 |
| 23rd May update |
Liverpool Lost.. sighz.. oh well, there is always a next year..
AsiaEnv - It is still consolidating, though signs are signs are pointing towards a reverse. Price might start picking up sooner rather than later.
BrightWorld - Unexpected reverse, thought it might need more time. SAR, MACD, and RSI all showing positive signs.
BioTreat - As stated yesterday, its relative stability of trend makes it a plus for trend followers. Breakout of the $0.90 mark. This might mark the beginning of a second run.
ChinaAOil - Price close seems to indicate a reversal. But I'm still holding firm that it might be going to a consolidation stage soon. Will hover within the $1.90 and $1.94 range.
MiddleEastD - Weak momentum is its drawback. However, things might pick up after the consolidation period.
NobleGroup - Gapped down due to huge placement. Positives from the EOD is that it closes higher than the opening. Will be volatile for the next few days. The cut loss point is exactly the closing price. Will thus look at the closing price tomorrow before making a decision
Rotary - Held their ground well at $1.07. Might finally start the move upwards
NTS System
This system I'm trying to develop will help determine the ratings of a particular stock, paying special attention to its risk involved.
A brief summary of the risk spectrum in my portfolio.
MiddleEastD - 5.6 High risk
NobleGroup - 4.2 Medium-High risk
CAO - 4 Medium-High risk
AsiaEnv - 3.29 Medium risk
BrightWorld - 2.82 Low risk (unexpected)
Rotary - 2.8 Low risk
Bio Treat - 2.66 Low risk
This numbers are calculated using some formula I'm testing out.
And its only 1/3 complete.
Furthermore, I have no idea why MiddleEastD is so high up and BrightWorld is so low.
Will have to look into it in greater depthLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 4:54 AM |
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| Saturday, May 12, 2007 |
| Weekly Round up + portfolio update |
This week has shown mixed results again.
MiddleEastD Price rose but that does not indicate an uptrend breaking up. While it seems that the downward momentum is coming to an end, RSI and SAR still shows down. Nothing critical yet though.
Asia Env As stated previously, it is taking a breather and all signs are pointing towards it. We shall now wait and see how bad the retracement is.
ChinaAviationOil
CPL at $1.86 has all but ensured a 45% returns. Will enter again when there is a retracement. At the moment, I have no funds. So most probably have to wait for next month when I get my pay. Needless to say, this stock is running fast now.
BrightWorld The issue with buying pennies is that the cut loss limit is so tight. I bought this at 0.475 and according to percentage, the cut loss is at 0.445. Seems like its possible to hit that range as it is retracing now. (The difficult part is to identify the difference between retracement and reversal) As of now, it will be assumed as retracement.
NobleGroup MACD showing signs of weakness and RSI declining slowly. This stock seems to be the short term punters dreams due to its fluctuations. I'm not like that but on a whole its on a healthy trend. Hopefully, this MACD slowdown period (now) is the retracement period.
BioTreat Its kinda strange why it opened so much lower than the previous day closing price. Maybe BioTreat has lots of short term traders and they might sell the stock out of fear because of DJ's drop the previous day. Nothing much to read from this chart other than the probable composition of the style of investors in this stock. Guess I better be careful. Its always safer to ride a trend full of fundamentalists as their tendency to hold is higher.
Rotary The stock I whined the most. It should be ok as candlesticks shows that people are trying to push the price up (my own interpretation). Nothing much to say at the moment. Only time will tell.
HoBee It has passed my CPL level. Seems like it might even hit oversold soon. Again, the reason might be attributed to the Dow Factor, but it seems like its bye bye to it soon. Monday should be my final day to judge it, and I will put an alert at $2.30. Should it hit it, then I have to say my thanks to Ho Bee for the good ride.
Portfolio Updates as of 11 May 2007
 Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NenixDreams Fund, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:31 PM |
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| Monday, April 30, 2007 |
| An Assesment of my holdings |
Its another holiday again. So today I will assess my holdings.
Ho Bee:
Direction: RSI, MACD, SAR all showing downtrend. Market moves in cycles and this small downtrend is understandable following a large movement in price.
Possible Movement: Coming week might show a reversal in trend so that it will resume its trend movement.
Risk Rating: low
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $2.30
Bio Treat:
Direction: Uptrend since November 2006
Possible Movement: Not much movement as MACD are not favorable, or slow upward movement
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: -5.98%
Cut Loss Price: $0.785
China Aviation Oil:
Direction: A secondary downtrend
Possible Movement: Recovery might have to be longer. Might continue to fall further.
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $1.46
Noble Group:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Sudden dip to $1.59 might trigger a reversal. Unknown where it will be heading
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 6.58%
Cut loss price: $1.56
Rotary:
Direction: Possible secondary downtrend due to negative indicators shown by MACD, ADX and RSI
Possible movement: Might not be significant as this dip is caused by the XD. It's low has been triggered, however, it's closing price still lies above the CPL price.
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 0
CPL: $0.995
BrightWorld:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Continue up
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 7.157%
Cut loss price: $0.441
Asia Env:
Direction: Trend has been strong. However, profit warning might break the trend
Possible movement: Profit warning might trigger a reversal. Extra attention is needed on this stock.
Risk Rating: medium-high
Potental loss: 8.395%
Cut loss price: $0.742
MiddleEastD:
Direction: Price Stabilizing at the moment.
Possible movement: Might be facing a possible secondary downtrend.
Risk Rating: High
Potental loss: 14.49%
Cut loss price: $0.295
After the analysis, three stocks needs extra attention. Rotary(the decision whether to reduce its position), NobleGroup(the sudden dip in prices), AsiaEnv(Profit warning signs by Dayen)
Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:06 AM |
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| Friday, April 27, 2007 |
| Quickie |
Tomorrow's another exam.. so this will be a quick post. Will elaborate more tomorrow evening.
Ho Bee: Loaded more as intended. However, prices did not break as I believed it would be. Maybe it would take longer than expected.
Rotary: Still held on to it. I must really rethink whether I should reduce my position. It is showing a downtrend as indicated by the SAR. MACD, ADX and RSI don't show favorable conditions about it.
Noblegroup: Nothing to say about. Trend looks strong
ChinaAviOil: Its showing more and more traits similar to Golden Agri. Guess that's what happens when you shoot up too fast. Might have to sell if it breaches my CPL, but nothing to worry about as of now.
BioTreat: Looking at the long term trend, it is slowly climbing up. Maybe its too slow, and it does not seem to have the strength to pick up. Nothing to worry at this point.
AsiaEnv: Nice looking trend. However, the momentum seems to have ran its course. Might be a small retracement, but things should look fine, barring any major catastrophic events
MiddleEastDevelopment: Picked some up @ $0.345 due to nice trends. Today seems to be a good opportune to buy. Price will most prob stay around here for sometime. Nothing much to say as well.
BrightWorld: Picked some too @ 0.475. Watching this stock but unable to enter due to lack of funds. Should have entered at an earlier price but I don't have enough money. Nothing much to say at the moment.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:49 PM |
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| Thursday, April 26, 2007 |
| Profit taking |
As mentioned from before,
RafflesEdu has hit my trigger point, As reluctant as I am, I closed positions at $2.25 at a -3% returns.
Golden Agri has shown signs of reversal too. Triggering my Capital Preservation Level (CPL), position is closed at $2.55 at a +46.55% returns.
Have loaded on NobleGroup@1.67, AsiaEnv@$0.81. Both shows good trends and especially for NobleGrp
Below will be a list of my holdings and their exit/cut loss triggers
CAO: CPL at $1.46
NobleGrp: Cut loss at $1.56
AsiaEnv: Cut loss at $0.74
Rotary: CPL at $0.99
Ho Bee: CPL at $2.30
Bio Treat: Cut loss at $0.78
To Do List:
- For tomorrow, the stock to note is CAO as its closing price is near to its CPL.
- I might load more Ho Bee as RSI is going towards high market strength.
- Reducing position size on Rotary?
Reflections:
Golden Agri was a good ride, but because of Olam's case, I have implemented this new gimmick called CPL. Afterwhich, I realise that Golden Agri's trigger point was at $2.65. So today's position close was a clear cut decision.
However, one thing to note is that exiting the position does not mean that I will not come back, it basically means I am just out of it at the moment.
The difference between greed(negative characteristics), riding profits(trading strategy), capital preservations (positive characteristics) is so small that sometimes, you think you are riding profits, but in actual fact, I'm just greedy. Sometimes, I close positions to preserve capital and it might be seen as deviating from the strategy of riding the profits.
Abstract stuff I feel, but its necessary to address them.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, GoldenAgri, NobleGroup, RafflesEdu |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:24 PM |
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| Tuesday, April 24, 2007 |
| Exit Points triggered |
Today will be short an sweet cos tmr I have exams.
Bought Bio Treat today at 0.835.
Three of my stocks seem to be near my exit point.
Rotary: Will reduce my position size due to weakening of trend *Edited: Will not reduce for the time being.
Raffles Edu: Trigger price is near, might close positions on Thursday depending on tomorrow's price change.
Olam: Seems like the secondary downtrend has hit (although it is caused fundamentally by acquisitions). Exit price will be $3.14, so its on alert as well.Labels: Bio Treat, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:18 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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