|
| Monday, October 15, 2007 |
| Technical Update on my Portfolio |
Haha.. I'm a bit embarrassed by my large portfolio. Anyway, I do not have the opportunity to reduce my portfolio. Maybe, this week, I might hit some of the triggers, which will give me reason to either cut loss or profit take. Anyway, this is a technical update on my counters. Note that the month of October is historically bad, so sentiment is not optimistic. Furthermore, with the FOMC meeting around the corner, most investors will be on the sidelines. Profit taking should not be seen as abnormal.
AdvSCT
- Overbought region in the MFI indicates that some time is needed for consolidation
- Low volume reinforces the fact that most are waiting on the sidelines
- Parabolic SAR indicates a downtrend at the moment
- MACD indicates that the upward momentum as ended and it might swing downwards. Extent of downward swing cannot be determined
- Narrowing price range indicates that consolidation period is ending.
Verdict: Direction points towards consolidation which is understandable but consolidation might end earlier than expected. Most indicators point towards a quiet week for advSCT.
AsiaEnv
- MFI indicates consoliation
- MACD indicates that upward momentum is nearing an end/has ended
- Decreasing volume with decreasing price indicates consolidation
- Support at $0.725 is weak and will test $0.66 if broken.
Verdict: This is a severely traded stock and TA could be taken out of the window. From insider trades, our respectable UBS trades frequently around 3000 lots. From past few days, we saw one lotters pressing down the price. We can see where these big boys are going, pressing it down, then pushing it up, selling to ignorant people, then pressing it down again. Well, what we can do is to hold on and not panic. But on technical terms, consolidation has just started.
Boustead
- Consolidation for about 2 weeks already
- Reaching oversold region
Verdict: The is the exact opposite of AsiaEnv. It is so illiquid that no one knows how to play it. Prices should move soon and for illiquid stocks we will see faster price surges. Nothing to worry about this counter.
ChinaAOil
- Going through a mild consolidation
- Nothing to be worried as it is on a positive uptrend.
Verdict: Ride and ennjoy the wave before it is too late.
Federal
- Recovering from consolidation
- MFI hits 50% mark
Verdict: Good time to enter now as it might be the start of the next short term uptrend
FerroChina
- Consolidation seems to be ending soon
- Price surge is very likely within the next 3 days
Verdict: Similar to CAO, just be patient and ride the wave.
FJBen
- Sudden weakness in price indicates that it might not be just a simple consolidation.
- Caution needed if one is to trade this counter
Verict: Be cautious on this counter despite its uptrend. Sentiments are not reacting naturally to this counter
FuJian
- In consolidation stage
- Decreasing volume suggests that this is consolidation in a bull run
- MACD showing selling momentum. Whether it is significant is still unknown.
Verdict: Be patient if you haven't entered the counter. Wait till Friday before loading the counters
Gold
- Uptrend
- Consolidation period has ended
Verdict: Long term counter. Just hold.
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend
Verdict: Just ride the wave as it looks like it still has lots of upside potential
MiddleEast
- Selldown should be a concern
- Consolidation is coming to an end. Direction of price movement will be significant in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Verdict: The long consolidation has reached its end, and the direction of the next move is dependent on the breakout.
MMP Reit
- Sideway traded
- Not much interest in buying up although it is very well supported.
- Such scenario will not last long as more people will try to make use of this scenario, making it non profitable. When that time comes, it has to go one direction, which is upwards
Verdict: Keep for long term, as it is more of a yield stock.
OKP
- Consolidation period ended earlier than expected
- Might be going on another run.
Verdict: Be careful though as indicators show that it is slightly stretched.
Rotary
- Broke down the 80% level of the MFI. Indication points to it being overbought.
- Consolidation will end this week unless major macro-economic issues kick in.
Verdict: Buy on dips as consolidation period will not last long.
Soilbuild
-Consolidation period just began
Verdict: Could buy on dips, but better to wait for better trend formation.
STI ETF
- Showing signs of stretching
- The highs don't seem to be sustainable
Verdict: Consolidation would be natural progression and it wont be surprised if we have a small consolidation/correction.
Swissco
- An unexpected end to consolidation
- Might have pending news or events that affects the sentiments positively.
Verdict: Ride the trend as usual
TiongWoon
- Trading sideways for some time already
- Consolidation period at the moment
Verdict: Consolidation is necessary for the trend to move. Be patient
Wheelock
- Conosolidation period is ending soon
- Property development counters are under radar at the moment and once they are noticed, the price will recover fast
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic about this counter.
All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. If you have counters before the index recovered, then I guess it would still be relatively safe to hold it. For me, my EPs are stated and I will stick to it.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, FuJianZY, Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
posted by Nenix @ 8:48 PM   |
|
| 2 Comments: |
-
hi wat is ur view on chaina aviation oil is it worth to enter at 2.3 or wait for 2 doller range
thanks
regards
raj
-
hi,
I have entered at $2.31 today. It is true that it is undergoing some serious pullback at the moment. This is similar to most stocks, esp those affiliated to the China market.
From technical point of view, the general trend in the volume since the start of October is decreasing, and this coincides with the decrease in price. This usually points to a "bullish" sort of retracement as there are lesser sellers at lower prices.
If you look at the price in which the counter recovered from the August correction, it has been well supported at $2.30 area.
From analysis of volume and price, I would suggest that it is panic selldown. Today might be the bottom of the correction and I feel it might linger around 2.30 for some time. I think this is a good price to enter.
If it falls to $2 range, I will most probably sell my holdings to get this. It might test $2.15 to $2.20 though.
Anyways, this will be considered a healthy correction if the magnitude is less severe than that of the August correction. Anything more, and we would see a new wave of panic.
Hope I'm not too long winded here. :) To cut long story short. $2.30 should be a steal but you could try to wait it out to $2.20 range. $2 range seems very unlikely in my opinion.
|
| |
| << Home |
| |
|
|
|
| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
|
| Links |
|
|
| Tools that Generate Passive Income |
|
| Previous Post |
|
| Archives |
|
|
hi wat is ur view on chaina aviation oil is it worth to enter at 2.3 or wait for 2 doller range
thanks
regards
raj