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| Monday, October 15, 2007 |
| Technical Update on my Portfolio |
Haha.. I'm a bit embarrassed by my large portfolio. Anyway, I do not have the opportunity to reduce my portfolio. Maybe, this week, I might hit some of the triggers, which will give me reason to either cut loss or profit take. Anyway, this is a technical update on my counters. Note that the month of October is historically bad, so sentiment is not optimistic. Furthermore, with the FOMC meeting around the corner, most investors will be on the sidelines. Profit taking should not be seen as abnormal.
AdvSCT
- Overbought region in the MFI indicates that some time is needed for consolidation
- Low volume reinforces the fact that most are waiting on the sidelines
- Parabolic SAR indicates a downtrend at the moment
- MACD indicates that the upward momentum as ended and it might swing downwards. Extent of downward swing cannot be determined
- Narrowing price range indicates that consolidation period is ending.
Verdict: Direction points towards consolidation which is understandable but consolidation might end earlier than expected. Most indicators point towards a quiet week for advSCT.
AsiaEnv
- MFI indicates consoliation
- MACD indicates that upward momentum is nearing an end/has ended
- Decreasing volume with decreasing price indicates consolidation
- Support at $0.725 is weak and will test $0.66 if broken.
Verdict: This is a severely traded stock and TA could be taken out of the window. From insider trades, our respectable UBS trades frequently around 3000 lots. From past few days, we saw one lotters pressing down the price. We can see where these big boys are going, pressing it down, then pushing it up, selling to ignorant people, then pressing it down again. Well, what we can do is to hold on and not panic. But on technical terms, consolidation has just started.
Boustead
- Consolidation for about 2 weeks already
- Reaching oversold region
Verdict: The is the exact opposite of AsiaEnv. It is so illiquid that no one knows how to play it. Prices should move soon and for illiquid stocks we will see faster price surges. Nothing to worry about this counter.
ChinaAOil
- Going through a mild consolidation
- Nothing to be worried as it is on a positive uptrend.
Verdict: Ride and ennjoy the wave before it is too late.
Federal
- Recovering from consolidation
- MFI hits 50% mark
Verdict: Good time to enter now as it might be the start of the next short term uptrend
FerroChina
- Consolidation seems to be ending soon
- Price surge is very likely within the next 3 days
Verdict: Similar to CAO, just be patient and ride the wave.
FJBen
- Sudden weakness in price indicates that it might not be just a simple consolidation.
- Caution needed if one is to trade this counter
Verict: Be cautious on this counter despite its uptrend. Sentiments are not reacting naturally to this counter
FuJian
- In consolidation stage
- Decreasing volume suggests that this is consolidation in a bull run
- MACD showing selling momentum. Whether it is significant is still unknown.
Verdict: Be patient if you haven't entered the counter. Wait till Friday before loading the counters
Gold
- Uptrend
- Consolidation period has ended
Verdict: Long term counter. Just hold.
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend
Verdict: Just ride the wave as it looks like it still has lots of upside potential
MiddleEast
- Selldown should be a concern
- Consolidation is coming to an end. Direction of price movement will be significant in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Verdict: The long consolidation has reached its end, and the direction of the next move is dependent on the breakout.
MMP Reit
- Sideway traded
- Not much interest in buying up although it is very well supported.
- Such scenario will not last long as more people will try to make use of this scenario, making it non profitable. When that time comes, it has to go one direction, which is upwards
Verdict: Keep for long term, as it is more of a yield stock.
OKP
- Consolidation period ended earlier than expected
- Might be going on another run.
Verdict: Be careful though as indicators show that it is slightly stretched.
Rotary
- Broke down the 80% level of the MFI. Indication points to it being overbought.
- Consolidation will end this week unless major macro-economic issues kick in.
Verdict: Buy on dips as consolidation period will not last long.
Soilbuild
-Consolidation period just began
Verdict: Could buy on dips, but better to wait for better trend formation.
STI ETF
- Showing signs of stretching
- The highs don't seem to be sustainable
Verdict: Consolidation would be natural progression and it wont be surprised if we have a small consolidation/correction.
Swissco
- An unexpected end to consolidation
- Might have pending news or events that affects the sentiments positively.
Verdict: Ride the trend as usual
TiongWoon
- Trading sideways for some time already
- Consolidation period at the moment
Verdict: Consolidation is necessary for the trend to move. Be patient
Wheelock
- Conosolidation period is ending soon
- Property development counters are under radar at the moment and once they are noticed, the price will recover fast
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic about this counter.
All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. If you have counters before the index recovered, then I guess it would still be relatively safe to hold it. For me, my EPs are stated and I will stick to it.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, FuJianZY, Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
posted by Nenix @ 8:48 PM   |
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| Wednesday, October 10, 2007 |
| MMP Reit (CFD) |
| Well, opportunity came by for me to correct my mistake of loading MMPReit. Sold at 1.21 which is at a profit of 4.167% with respect to the cost. I think after deducting transaction costs, it will be about 2.833% with respect to cost. Cost is significant because of the selling off at just 1 bid difference. Labels: MMPReit |
| posted by Nenix @ 3:08 PM |
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| Tuesday, October 09, 2007 |
| CFD Clearance move |
I really don't know what gotten into me, but I closed my positions for advSCT, AsiaEnv, PacAndes.
AdvSCT was cost averaged at $0.9725 and sold at $1.02. Because you only need to pay 1/5 of the total cost, my percentage gain based on that position is approximately 24.42%.
AsiaEnv was cost averaged at $0.67875 and it was sold at $0.765. Percentage gain based on that position is approximately 12.707%.
PacAndes was bought at $0.73 and it was sold at $0.835. Percentage gain based on that position is approximately 14.383%
Bought MMP Reit at $1.20 today. My rationale at the time was to make sure that I can capitalise on the capital returns in a month's time or park it aside while waiting for oppurtunities to come. I knew that MMP Reit is a stable stock that doesn't move much so downside risk is quite limited. But the same goes for its upside potential. Furthermore, parking it like that does incur needless charges. I see this move as a big mistake, firstly, because I bought on impulse thinking that it is a bargain, and secondly, while it is a bargain, the transaction costs would have eroded all returns. I will give myself 1 month before I close this postion.
On the whole, while I profited from today's trade, I understand that I did not follow the rules I set. Partly because fear set in as CFD is a double-edged sword. Afterall, I'm still very interested in these counters and I will most probably be coming back for 1 of them when the prices are correcting, which they most probably are now.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, MMPReit, PacAndes |
| posted by Nenix @ 5:57 PM |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Friday, August 24, 2007 |
| 24th August Update |
As it is, my NDF has now gone below the STI index with NDF being $1.36 and STI being $1.38. If I have to point out any fault, it would have to be due to my ill discipline. Hesitation to cut loss and selling when I am not supposed to. Have I learned a lesson? Haha, sadly speaking, I didn't. This is because recently, I loaded more position based on "feel". I guess I got lured in by improving market sentiment, thus trying to preempt my buying signal. This time round, if I managed to survive, then I'm lucky, else I just have to bear with another wave of cut losses.
I bought some CAO @ $2.52, Ferrochina @ $1.95, OKP @ $0.68 and Lyxor China H @ $16.8. Anyway, after I reach home, I calculated the potential risk. To my astonishment, CAO, Ferrochina, OKP are very risky stocks with total cut loss amounting to 5% of my portfolio. That's not healthy. To breakdown, the cut loss is as follows:
MMP Reit: $0.998 - $1.07 (N.A as this is part of my 10% untouched funds)
STI ETF100: $32.226 (N.A as this is part of my 10% untouched funds)
AsiaEnv: $0.605 (N.A as the sales of this equity will be determined by my brother)
Lyxor ChinaH: US$15.796 (This is not part of the 10% untouched funds as purchase is based on
buying signals)
OKP: $0.554 (Cutloss point based on its volatility. I forgot about the fact that it has such high risk when I bought it)
CAO: $2.14 (same as above)
FerroChina: $1.64
As you can see, the cutloss is determined based on its volatility(risk). At the moment, this is the risk present and I now have to follow my cutloss. I realise its easier for me to cut loss than to refrain myself from buying unnecessarily.Labels: AsiaEnv, ChinaAviationOil, FerroChina, LyxorChinaH, MMPReit, NenixDreams Fund, OKP, STI ETF100 |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:41 PM |
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| Wednesday, August 15, 2007 |
| Retailers 1 - 0 FundHouse |
Today's drop seems serious. One of the possible reasons is that there might be huge redemptions everywhere. This thus forces the Fund Houses to liquidate their positions. The increased selling pressure thus presents a rare opportunity whereby the retailers have the say over the price.
Take for example MMP Reit. Throughout the run in since April, significant shareholders like Morgan Stanley etc are increasing their stakes (I have not actually check out the increase though, if any) Suddenly the credit risk causes panic and redemption of funds causes the FH to liquidate their holdings.
Ahaa. So.. this is an opportunity to load. Needless to say, I have loaded up quite a fair bit of MMP reit at 1.17, 1.15 and 1.09 respectively. Total position size is about 10% of my portfolio. I intend to use 20% of my funds to load in Reits, indexes and maybe gold funds.
Of the remaining 80%, 10% must be cash. This acts as an opportunity fund. However, the 10% quota must be maintained.
That leaves with 70%. This remaining 70% is used for trading. Of cos, if the reits are moving in good direction, I will top up using this portion of the fund. The same goes for indexes.
Now, I only have 2 stocks, Asia Env and MMP Reit. I will be waiting to pounce once the market shows signs of recovery.
P.S The above mention above redemption of funds is merely conjecture on my part.Labels: MMPReit |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:48 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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