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| Monday, October 15, 2007 |
| Technical Update on my Portfolio |
Haha.. I'm a bit embarrassed by my large portfolio. Anyway, I do not have the opportunity to reduce my portfolio. Maybe, this week, I might hit some of the triggers, which will give me reason to either cut loss or profit take. Anyway, this is a technical update on my counters. Note that the month of October is historically bad, so sentiment is not optimistic. Furthermore, with the FOMC meeting around the corner, most investors will be on the sidelines. Profit taking should not be seen as abnormal.
AdvSCT
- Overbought region in the MFI indicates that some time is needed for consolidation
- Low volume reinforces the fact that most are waiting on the sidelines
- Parabolic SAR indicates a downtrend at the moment
- MACD indicates that the upward momentum as ended and it might swing downwards. Extent of downward swing cannot be determined
- Narrowing price range indicates that consolidation period is ending.
Verdict: Direction points towards consolidation which is understandable but consolidation might end earlier than expected. Most indicators point towards a quiet week for advSCT.
AsiaEnv
- MFI indicates consoliation
- MACD indicates that upward momentum is nearing an end/has ended
- Decreasing volume with decreasing price indicates consolidation
- Support at $0.725 is weak and will test $0.66 if broken.
Verdict: This is a severely traded stock and TA could be taken out of the window. From insider trades, our respectable UBS trades frequently around 3000 lots. From past few days, we saw one lotters pressing down the price. We can see where these big boys are going, pressing it down, then pushing it up, selling to ignorant people, then pressing it down again. Well, what we can do is to hold on and not panic. But on technical terms, consolidation has just started.
Boustead
- Consolidation for about 2 weeks already
- Reaching oversold region
Verdict: The is the exact opposite of AsiaEnv. It is so illiquid that no one knows how to play it. Prices should move soon and for illiquid stocks we will see faster price surges. Nothing to worry about this counter.
ChinaAOil
- Going through a mild consolidation
- Nothing to be worried as it is on a positive uptrend.
Verdict: Ride and ennjoy the wave before it is too late.
Federal
- Recovering from consolidation
- MFI hits 50% mark
Verdict: Good time to enter now as it might be the start of the next short term uptrend
FerroChina
- Consolidation seems to be ending soon
- Price surge is very likely within the next 3 days
Verdict: Similar to CAO, just be patient and ride the wave.
FJBen
- Sudden weakness in price indicates that it might not be just a simple consolidation.
- Caution needed if one is to trade this counter
Verict: Be cautious on this counter despite its uptrend. Sentiments are not reacting naturally to this counter
FuJian
- In consolidation stage
- Decreasing volume suggests that this is consolidation in a bull run
- MACD showing selling momentum. Whether it is significant is still unknown.
Verdict: Be patient if you haven't entered the counter. Wait till Friday before loading the counters
Gold
- Uptrend
- Consolidation period has ended
Verdict: Long term counter. Just hold.
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend
Verdict: Just ride the wave as it looks like it still has lots of upside potential
MiddleEast
- Selldown should be a concern
- Consolidation is coming to an end. Direction of price movement will be significant in 1 to 2 weeks time.
Verdict: The long consolidation has reached its end, and the direction of the next move is dependent on the breakout.
MMP Reit
- Sideway traded
- Not much interest in buying up although it is very well supported.
- Such scenario will not last long as more people will try to make use of this scenario, making it non profitable. When that time comes, it has to go one direction, which is upwards
Verdict: Keep for long term, as it is more of a yield stock.
OKP
- Consolidation period ended earlier than expected
- Might be going on another run.
Verdict: Be careful though as indicators show that it is slightly stretched.
Rotary
- Broke down the 80% level of the MFI. Indication points to it being overbought.
- Consolidation will end this week unless major macro-economic issues kick in.
Verdict: Buy on dips as consolidation period will not last long.
Soilbuild
-Consolidation period just began
Verdict: Could buy on dips, but better to wait for better trend formation.
STI ETF
- Showing signs of stretching
- The highs don't seem to be sustainable
Verdict: Consolidation would be natural progression and it wont be surprised if we have a small consolidation/correction.
Swissco
- An unexpected end to consolidation
- Might have pending news or events that affects the sentiments positively.
Verdict: Ride the trend as usual
TiongWoon
- Trading sideways for some time already
- Consolidation period at the moment
Verdict: Consolidation is necessary for the trend to move. Be patient
Wheelock
- Conosolidation period is ending soon
- Property development counters are under radar at the moment and once they are noticed, the price will recover fast
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic about this counter.
All in all, as we observe that many counters are facing consolidation, it is safe to say that broad based correction is likely. If you have counters before the index recovered, then I guess it would still be relatively safe to hold it. For me, my EPs are stated and I will stick to it.Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, FuJianZY, Gld10US$, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon, Wheelock |
posted by Nenix @ 8:48 PM   |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 |
| Overal update on my holdings |
AsiaEnv
MidTerm perspective
- A reversal seems to be in place even though it is still unclear at this point if it is a temporary pullback.
- The 12w and the 26w EMA touches and it could be observed that midterm wise, it does not bode well as it soon going to trend downwards.
- However, recent signs have been positive with MACD improving and price surging
ShortTerm perspective
- What we see is that the dust has finally settled at around $0.60. The 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA, albeit its small magnitude.
- Thinning volume, coupled by a healthy SAR indicator, and improving MACD, with MFI increasing strength, all points to price surging upwards.
My take
- It is understandable that the drop in prices in the bigger picture displays a downtrend.
- However, strong readings from several indicators in the short term all points to a strong recovery. I will top up my holdings on this once it hits my buying trigger. At the moment, my finances are a little bit tight.
Boustead
MidTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5w, 12w, 26w EMA. Judging from the charts, the 5w EMA sits firmly above the 12w EMA
ShortTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5d, 12d, 26d EMA.
- Currently, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. This is an indication that it is experiencing a pullback.
- This can be observed by the drop in the MFI index, indicating a movement to weaker market strength.
- However, the important thing is that volume is extremely thin. Even for today's price drop to $2.28, only 1 lot has been done.
My take
- In the Mid-term perspective, things still look as good. On the shorter term though, it seems as the price is being pressured downwards. However, the volume is extremely thin and it could suggest that either there are strong hands are trying to push down the price so that indicators will indicate a selling sign or weak hands panic selling in this sort of volatile environment. I personally believe that it is the former as weak hands are most probably weeded out during the meltdown in mid-August.
- So it should still be a strong hold. Of cos, as my system is based on buy and sell triggers, it is likely that it could be forced down to my selling point. I will make my decision when it reaches that point.
ChinaAOil
MidTerm perspective
- Price movement suggests that it is undergoing a retracement. This is particularly attributed to the meltdown however, even before the meltdown, you could see the surge slowing down. At one time, it seems as though it might just drop down hitting a price of $1.78, however it recovered to the $2.38 range. - Indicators, in particular the SAR, shows that retracement will still continue and there are no signs of a reversal yet
ShortTerm perspective
- Short term however, we have seen prices trying to surge only to be halted due to overall market sentiment. - The 5d EMA and the 12d EMA seems to cross up soon though, coupled by decreasing volume, is an indication that a reversal might be coming sooner rather than later. - At the moment, the counter does not clearly show any direction, even though we are looking at lesser price ranges. My take
- From the midterm perspective, it is understandable that it retraces after a lengthy surge. The credit crisis certainly acts as a catalyst for the retracement. - From the short term perspective, it could be an indication to load up now as the thinning volume suggests that there will be a breakout in price soon. ChipEngSeng
MidTerm perspective
- Similar to CAO, it is currently showing a retracement chart.
- The uptrend is still intact with prices still at the support line.
- It might be testing to break $0.90 in the following weeks.
ShortTerm perspective
- SAR is still healthy even though the prices are trading at a level very near my selling trigger.
- CES is currently showing weakness in the very short term, with MACD and MFI all showing unfavorable readings.
- However, we could observe a few points in recent times. Firstly, price recovery since mid August has been strong and it is observed by huge volumes. Secondly, recent selldowns are in small volumes compared to those during the recovery period. This just means that this period is most probably a profit-taking period rather than a panic-selldown prelude. If you need to find a term for a price chart, it would be a "flag". According to books, this means that a breakout is imminent.
My take
- I need to reiterate that as trend followers, we DO NOT predict future prices. Thus, though I might predict that it might test $0.90 in following weeks, it does not mean that I have to buy based on that decisions. In fact, I bought at $0.93 one week ago. Regardless, the long term trend is still intact, thus there is not much worry to sell.
- Short term wise, as this is a top volume counter, we would expect to see lots of fluctuations. Trendlines bound to be whipsawed frequently.
- I have bought at $0.93 and my cutloss is at $0.805. My only regret is that I should refrain from entering this counter when it is top volume. Such volume often makes the indicators skewed. Anyway, my selling trigger is near. So depending on how things go, I might have to sell this soon.
CWT
MidTerm perspective
- Severly tested the 26w EMA. However, it recovers very quickly.
- This shows that this is a rather resilient counter. Needless to say, the uptrend is still intact.
ShortTerm perspective
- Very impressive. Its 5d EMA has cut both its 12d and 26d EMA.
- Price surge coupled by increased volume is a bullish indication.
- Short term uptrend firmly in place.
My take
- Both short term and middle term charts are amazingly bullish.
- Not a good time to enter now though as MFI seems to tread into overbought region soon.
- However, this stock might be a good counter by year end as it certainly seems to have the momentum to propel upwards.
Federal
MidTerm perspective
- Another stock bought due to amazing recovery. The chart is similar to CWT although it just tested the 12w EMA.
- Its Midterm retracement seems to be coming to an end soon, indicating that the uptrend will continue soon.
ShortTerm perspective
- Looks good as well due to its uptrend even though it seems that it will be trading at this price for sometime.
- Volume still hasn't thinned yet, indicating that there might be more upside within the next few days.
My take
- Just hold it. Like CWT, it doesn't show any apparent weakness in price movement yet.
FerroChina
MidTerm perspective
- Heavily battered counter during the correction
- However, it still has not break the 26w EMA
- It is at the moment trending sideways though as it recovers slowly from the correction.
ShortTerm perspective
- 5d EMA cuts the 12d EMA, thinning volume, converging prices, all leads to point out that it is recovering.
- Breakout seems imminent, even though I bought it when the EMA intersected.
My take
- Seems ok. I would say, this is similar to CAO in its huge surge. Thus it is understandable that it retraces.
- I would collect more if I had more finances.
FJBen
MidTerm perspective
- Broke the 26w EMA during correction but recovered strongly the following week. Indicates its resilience.
- Price converging in midterm horizon suggest that a breakout in price is imminent and it will set itself to trend in that direction.
ShortTerm perspective
- Thinning volume, trading sideways at the moment
- EMAs seems to converge (not a good thing)
My take
- Seems like it doesn't have momentum to propel it, even though signs are showing that there will be a surge soon, upwards or downwards.
- It is difficult at the moment as I feel most are sitted in the sidelines.
Part 2 to continue next time.....Labels: AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, ChipEngSeng, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:04 PM |
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| Wednesday, August 29, 2007 |
| Those that recovered strongly are well supported |
Today loaded small positions of Boustead @ 2.39. Maybe its a bit more costly. But I feel this stock has strong resilience and to me, that's really important. Strong shares are well supported and prices wont be much affected. This view can be reinforced when the price refused to budge in the free fall during the day. And personally, I think most punters are flushed out when it fell to $1.80 range.
Anyway, for the rest of my holdings, I'm a bit tired to update. Haha. But basically, all are still within my cut loss range. Volatile times ahead and I can see volume drying up. In a bullish run, this is a good sign as it might be an indication that it will surge. But in this context, I wouldn't be surprised if we are going through the transition stage towards the bear run, though I personally feel its not likely.Labels: Boustead |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:54 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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