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| Monday, April 30, 2007 |
| An Assesment of my holdings |
Its another holiday again. So today I will assess my holdings.
Ho Bee:
Direction: RSI, MACD, SAR all showing downtrend. Market moves in cycles and this small downtrend is understandable following a large movement in price.
Possible Movement: Coming week might show a reversal in trend so that it will resume its trend movement.
Risk Rating: low
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $2.30
Bio Treat:
Direction: Uptrend since November 2006
Possible Movement: Not much movement as MACD are not favorable, or slow upward movement
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: -5.98%
Cut Loss Price: $0.785
China Aviation Oil:
Direction: A secondary downtrend
Possible Movement: Recovery might have to be longer. Might continue to fall further.
Risk Rating: low-medium
Potential loss: nil
CPL: $1.46
Noble Group:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Sudden dip to $1.59 might trigger a reversal. Unknown where it will be heading
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 6.58%
Cut loss price: $1.56
Rotary:
Direction: Possible secondary downtrend due to negative indicators shown by MACD, ADX and RSI
Possible movement: Might not be significant as this dip is caused by the XD. It's low has been triggered, however, it's closing price still lies above the CPL price.
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 0
CPL: $0.995
BrightWorld:
Direction: Relatively strong primary uptrend
Possible movement: Continue up
Risk Rating: Low-medium
Potental loss: 7.157%
Cut loss price: $0.441
Asia Env:
Direction: Trend has been strong. However, profit warning might break the trend
Possible movement: Profit warning might trigger a reversal. Extra attention is needed on this stock.
Risk Rating: medium-high
Potental loss: 8.395%
Cut loss price: $0.742
MiddleEastD:
Direction: Price Stabilizing at the moment.
Possible movement: Might be facing a possible secondary downtrend.
Risk Rating: High
Potental loss: 14.49%
Cut loss price: $0.295
After the analysis, three stocks needs extra attention. Rotary(the decision whether to reduce its position), NobleGroup(the sudden dip in prices), AsiaEnv(Profit warning signs by Dayen)
Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
posted by Nenix @ 12:06 AM   |
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| Friday, April 27, 2007 |
| Quickie |
Tomorrow's another exam.. so this will be a quick post. Will elaborate more tomorrow evening.
Ho Bee: Loaded more as intended. However, prices did not break as I believed it would be. Maybe it would take longer than expected.
Rotary: Still held on to it. I must really rethink whether I should reduce my position. It is showing a downtrend as indicated by the SAR. MACD, ADX and RSI don't show favorable conditions about it.
Noblegroup: Nothing to say about. Trend looks strong
ChinaAviOil: Its showing more and more traits similar to Golden Agri. Guess that's what happens when you shoot up too fast. Might have to sell if it breaches my CPL, but nothing to worry about as of now.
BioTreat: Looking at the long term trend, it is slowly climbing up. Maybe its too slow, and it does not seem to have the strength to pick up. Nothing to worry at this point.
AsiaEnv: Nice looking trend. However, the momentum seems to have ran its course. Might be a small retracement, but things should look fine, barring any major catastrophic events
MiddleEastDevelopment: Picked some up @ $0.345 due to nice trends. Today seems to be a good opportune to buy. Price will most prob stay around here for sometime. Nothing much to say as well.
BrightWorld: Picked some too @ 0.475. Watching this stock but unable to enter due to lack of funds. Should have entered at an earlier price but I don't have enough money. Nothing much to say at the moment.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:49 PM |
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| Thursday, April 26, 2007 |
| Profit taking |
As mentioned from before,
RafflesEdu has hit my trigger point, As reluctant as I am, I closed positions at $2.25 at a -3% returns.
Golden Agri has shown signs of reversal too. Triggering my Capital Preservation Level (CPL), position is closed at $2.55 at a +46.55% returns.
Have loaded on NobleGroup@1.67, AsiaEnv@$0.81. Both shows good trends and especially for NobleGrp
Below will be a list of my holdings and their exit/cut loss triggers
CAO: CPL at $1.46
NobleGrp: Cut loss at $1.56
AsiaEnv: Cut loss at $0.74
Rotary: CPL at $0.99
Ho Bee: CPL at $2.30
Bio Treat: Cut loss at $0.78
To Do List:
- For tomorrow, the stock to note is CAO as its closing price is near to its CPL.
- I might load more Ho Bee as RSI is going towards high market strength.
- Reducing position size on Rotary?
Reflections:
Golden Agri was a good ride, but because of Olam's case, I have implemented this new gimmick called CPL. Afterwhich, I realise that Golden Agri's trigger point was at $2.65. So today's position close was a clear cut decision.
However, one thing to note is that exiting the position does not mean that I will not come back, it basically means I am just out of it at the moment.
The difference between greed(negative characteristics), riding profits(trading strategy), capital preservations (positive characteristics) is so small that sometimes, you think you are riding profits, but in actual fact, I'm just greedy. Sometimes, I close positions to preserve capital and it might be seen as deviating from the strategy of riding the profits.
Abstract stuff I feel, but its necessary to address them.Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, GoldenAgri, NobleGroup, RafflesEdu |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:24 PM |
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| Wednesday, April 25, 2007 |
| Olam "grounded" |
Olam hit the trigger and I sold it for $3.12:
8% returns:
Lessons to learn:
Should have a Capital Preservation Rating so that profits won't erode: Though it might preserve profits, it can break me out of the trend, which is not "riding the profits". A possible implementation.
Weakness of MA:
Realized that for big trend climbers have this weakness: as it climbs longer, the divergence will spread. Sometimes, it spreads so wide that waiting for price to cut down before selling is already too late. I tried using shorter duration EMAs to compensate for this but it doesnt seem to work. Other measures have to be taken for exit strategies I suppose, as lagging gets worse on a power trend.
Other holdings:
Sales of Raffles Edu tommorow
Test out capital preservation method tomorrow on golden agri:Labels: GoldenAgri, Olam, RafflesEdu |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:10 PM |
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| Tuesday, April 24, 2007 |
| Exit Points triggered |
Today will be short an sweet cos tmr I have exams.
Bought Bio Treat today at 0.835.
Three of my stocks seem to be near my exit point.
Rotary: Will reduce my position size due to weakening of trend *Edited: Will not reduce for the time being.
Raffles Edu: Trigger price is near, might close positions on Thursday depending on tomorrow's price change.
Olam: Seems like the secondary downtrend has hit (although it is caused fundamentally by acquisitions). Exit price will be $3.14, so its on alert as well.Labels: Bio Treat, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:18 PM |
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| Monday, April 23, 2007 |
| 23rd April 2007 |
Well well, today is a weird day. Most of my stocks hit a high which is a new high, but then closes much lower.
CAO
- Going through a consolidation phase in my opinion
- SAR shows reversal in trend (secondary)
- MACD diverge downwards
- RSI still healthy though
- Volume traded decreases, which might be an indication that the accumulation is coming to an end
- Verdict: Still vested and nothing to worry about
Golden Agri
- SAR close to reversal
- MACD going to touch and diverge soon
- RSI is still too high, so its expected that it will fall
- Fall in volume today might be a sign of accumulation
- Verdict: Vested however, will keep close tabs on it
Ho Bee
- SAR close to reversing back to uptrend
- MACD still diverging downwards
- RSI goes below 50% indicating a slightly weak market
- Verdict: Vested, keep close tabs on it, might increase stake on it depending on its strength of the trend
Olam
- Very resilient, seems close to reversing, but still doing ok
- Should be reversing downwards soon
- Verdict: Vested, and nothing much to worry about
Raffles Edu
- Going down at the moment
- All indicators pointing south
- EMA cut will soon trigger the sales of this equity
- Verdict: Might not be vested by Wednesday. Much is dependent on tomorrow's result.
Rotary
- Might be going up again.
- Nothing has changed much since last trading day
- Verdict: Vested and will be patientLabels: ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:28 PM |
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| Friday, April 20, 2007 |
| Running Like a headless chicken |
Because my exam period is near, I shall shelve off all analysis, postmortem comments about my behavior today. Issues to ponder
1) Fail to act in a disciplined manner as I monitored the stocks today.
2) Though the issue of CFD has been ironed out, the manner of balancing still lingers.
3) The moment to "top up" still needs lots of polishing.
4) Closing of topped up positions needs to be addressed.
5) Lazed off recently after holding stocks with good returns. Not having enough capital should not be a reason for me not to keep a look out on power stocks.
All in all, the question of "how much to buy", "what to buy", "when to cut loss", "when to exit" still seems a bit chaotic.
Sighz.. just when I thought I have beat the market, different "cases" popped out. Good thing is I can factor into my consideration.. Bad thing is, the goal of beating the market just have to wait. |
| posted by Nenix @ 4:28 PM |
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| Thursday, April 19, 2007 |
| Red Sea Fishing |
As expected, Ascott hit the trigger. Due to CFD, exposure to risk is higher, that is the reason why loss have to be cut ASAP. Sold at 1.70.
Another red flag is Raffles Eductaion. Not as bad as ascott as it's not a CFD item. However, I should keep an eye tomorrow.
Rotary another CFD, brings up some concern. As my positions are bought in progressively, costs incurred for rolling the contract is getting huge. I am now considering selling and then buying again so that CFD transaction costs will be minimized in the future. This might prove a good time to sell as prices might fall for a while.
Does this move contradict my style? Maybe. but this is for the sake of minimizing transaction costs.
My price fell $0.06 to $1.34 while STI fell to $1.35.
Possible reasons:
1) The CFD rolling charges are being significant
-> Consider "Rebalancing" the CFD accounts to minimize transactions costs.
2) Selection should be more stringent. Letting the cash lie there is better than just hopping on a uptrending stock
-> degree of trending and volume should be taken into consideration
HoBee taking a breather. All should be ok despite the negative short term trends
Olam has finally stopped its move and taking a break. Would most probably show negative short term trends too. I will most probably ignore short term trends. The tricky part is to differentiate secondary and primary downtrend.
CAO has slowed down too..
Golden Agri will follow suit too..Labels: Ascott, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:39 PM |
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| Wednesday, April 18, 2007 |
| 18April2007 |
Most of my holdings are as expected.
Ascott has drawn to my attention though. 5 day EMA will cut the 12day EMA if there if its still heading south tomorrow. As this holding belongs to the CFD account, i will have to considering closing this position.
RafflesEdu is showing weaktrends but i shall hold on till the trend bends. Must be disciplined not to chop and change.
Others are still the same.
Hope tomorrow will be a better day!Labels: Ascott, RafflesEdu |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:28 PM |
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| Tuesday, April 17, 2007 |
| 17April2007 |
My gap with STI is narrowed to a difference of 0.01.
Ascott dropped to $1.75. It doesn't help when its cut loss point is below my buying point.
- The MACD line touched the signal line from above, might indicate a secondary downtrend
- RSI has gone below the overbought area and close to the 50% mark. An indication of selling presence.
- The parabolic Stop and Reverse might be touching the price soon. (an indication that a down trend will follow)
- Overall indication are showing signs of a downtrend(most probably a secondary one). The main deciding factor, which is the moving average still healthy (didn't evaluate it based on my criteria due to the fact I'm revising for exams. So its eyeballs for now)
ChinaAviationOil dropped to $1.53. Similar to Ascott, CAO seems to be taking a breather after the recent surge.
- MACD is slightly below the signal line although not by much. Can see from the lack of momentum at this moment. Most probably people are accumulating at the moment.
- RSI showed that market strength dropped back to reasonable range after being in the overbought zone for a while.
- Parabolic SAR seems to approach the price as well. It is normal as every price chart goes up and down. This is just an indicator to show the possibility of reversal in trend.
-Trend is firmly up, no questions about it.
Golden Agriculture dropped again to $2.72. Similar to CAO, due to its meteoric rise, it is understandable. If we use Fibonacci lines, a possible support line could be at $2.50. I don't really believe in that though.
- MACD is showing signs of convergence.
- RSI is still overbought
- Par SAR still some distance
Stock might continue to slide but these are just indicators. Decision will still be based on the price trends, which is still healthy.
Ho Bee is currently undergoing some down trend. I decided not to do anything as its nothing serious and I do not want to incur transaction costs unnecessarily.
- Indicators are similar to golden agriculture except the part in which Par SAR has already been flipped.
Olam dropped to $3.46. This is a strong stock in my opinion. Trend is strong and there is no indication of an obvious retracement. During the correction, Olam, along with CAO and golden Agri, were not seriously affected. This might mean that investors there are unlike me..(haha). Nothing but praise for this stock.
RafflesEdu's price increase to $2.44. The slow mover of the lot (along with Ascott), its main purpose is to ensure that I have some growth in my portfolio as it is rising slow and steady. Watching grass grow might be more interesting than watching this stock.
-MACD indicates no momentum
- RSI shows slightly strong market
- Par SAR still way off to "flipping"
Patience is the key.
Rotary rose today to $1.06. Might be because of the $34mil news. Maybe the price is factored into it already. I entered more positions today, increasing my average to $0.968.
All indicators are healthy. No point saying more.
All in all, today is a breather day for most of my holdings.. Patience is the key, and don't bee too rash (itchy fingers) like before.
Cheers all!Labels: Ascott, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:25 PM |
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| Impulse |
Just thought of it a while ago, so I decided to post it.
I am considering setting up a forum (open to all or private one) that discusses various investing strategies. After some time in the Channel News Asia Forums, it has dawned on me that every method seems to work. From mainstream value investing to the my more unorthodox method, they seem to have their pros and cons.
I would like to see what responses I have before I set this up. People who are positive, share the same dream as I do, open to new ideas are welcome. This is not a forum to criticize but to improve on our respective methods. I feel that it is possible to integrate ideas from different strategies to optimize it even further.
That said, maybe this would be a private forum as many people, including me, would be unwilling to share the intricacies of our screening process. Just place a comment if you are interested, email me (nenixg@gmail.com) and if I have a moderate response, I will set it up
Ideally, describe about yourself, and most importantly, your style of investing. It would be best if the forum has a diverse amount of traders in it. |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:47 PM |
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| Monday, April 16, 2007 |
| 16April2007 |
No action whatsoever today. Nothing to do, except to revise for my exams. My holdings seem to be quite ok.
CAO rose to 1.57,
Olam still 3.50,
Ho Bee rose to 2.39,
Raffles Edu rose to 2.39,
Golden Agri rose to 2.73,
Ascott rose to 1.80,
Rotary rose to 1.05.
Most of my stocks are relatively safe with cut loss limits way above my buying price.
Raffles Education is still bearing moderate "risk" as cut loss is below my buying price.
Ascott Grp due to recent up averaging, has also incurred some "risk".
But all in all, nothing big has happened.
P.S. I usually do not like to update everyday, but I will try to. FYI for today, NDF is $1.43 compared to $1.40 of STI(if $1 is invested in STI ETF and NDF in August 2006).Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:19 PM |
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| 15thApril2007 Portfolio |
This is the latest capture of my portfolio. This site does not seek to advice people. It is just a place for me to reflect on myself so that I can be more disciplined in this field.
People can have doubts about the reliability and I don't blame them. If I were in your shoes, I too will doubt it. Anyway, everyone makes money in the bull market, so like some of the posts I've read, I agree this is not amazing stuff. However, if you do have suggestions so that I can improve, do let me know.
CheersLabels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:07 AM |
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| Sunday, April 15, 2007 |
| 1000 hits!! |
Woohoo!.. When I first started this blog, I didn't expect it to have so much response. It is more of a public private blog. Thought that they only people visiting will be my brother and I.
But today, I just hit 1000 hits. Personally, I'm so damn elated. Will soon add links to indexes of other markets etc. Hopefully people will bookmark my page. haha..
Ok. Tomorrow will be a better day.
Cheers to all!Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:23 PM |
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| Friday, April 13, 2007 |
| Sales of CDLHTrust |
| Hit my break loss limit. Oh well, incurred a loss but that's how life is. You can't win everything Labels: CDL HTrust |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:52 PM |
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| Selection Issues |
It has now come to a point that I need to optimize my choice of selection. Picking a growing stock just isn't enough. My portfolio is usually divided into 3 segments, one on slow and steady growth, one on average growth, and one set of risky stocks. However, after the sales of Genting, I did not replace it with a stock of similar risk profile.
Its something that I have to think about. Right now, exit strategy still bothers me. Maybe it's itchy fingers. haha. Anyway, I must be disciplined. Even though I am earning lesser, I must never be tempted to steer away from my rules undertaking more risk.
Hope for the best next weekLabels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:31 PM |
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| Tuesday, April 10, 2007 |
| Milestone Reached |
Yay.. today, my fund price outperforms the STI index. As of today, my NDF price is $1.42 while the normalized STI is $1.40 (Based on $1 investment on NDF and STI on August 2006)
Even if its for a day, I'm super elated. As of today, everything seems to be so bubbly. I've hit my yearly target, I've crossed my target for NDF as well. But I do understand that, all profits are lies unless they are realized. Right now, I have to keep my feet on the ground and not get complacent or cocky(which I have a tendency to).
So what's my next milestone? Its the $2 mark. I hope to hit it before year end in 2007. Of cos, I want to break further away from this index. I can foresee a possibility of my price falling but that will be a test of my mantle.
Another target is that I want to overtake my bro's returns. He's damn good(lucky). But its a good thing. He adopts a different school of investing (fundamentalist/value investing). Well, it's healthy competition I suppose.
Anyway, I must cherish this moment.. haha.. this is the day that my fund outperforms the STI index.Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:56 PM |
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| Monday, April 09, 2007 |
| Nenix Trading System |
Well, seems like development is going well. I've just codified one component. Two more components to go and I should be able to get a rating for a particular equity. After which, I will brush up on its accuracy.
******Equity selection process ----- 30% done
Portfolio management is still a bit shady though. I have the general idea but its still not ironed out.
******Portfolio management process ----- 40% done
Exit strategy is in place, however I did not test it since none of the equities have hit exit point.
Cut loss strategy might be triggered due to CDL HTrust. Other than that, things seems ok.
*****Exit strategies process --------10% done
Lots of work needs to be done. This model will provide a framework for me, so hope that i could learn something out of it. Lots of vigorous testing will be needed.
Cheers to all!Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:33 PM |
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| Friday, April 06, 2007 |
| I'm near |
Since 1st August, I have tracking my portfolio vs the STI. Although I enjoyed good returns before August, I did properly account it.
So there you go, my returns.. And it's coming.. soon, it's gonna overtake the STI.
Before 7th March 2007, I didn't have any hard rules or style. I realized that I cashed out too quickly. Throughout the years, I had stocks like Capitaland, Olam (when it was at $1+). No regrets though because I've learned something from it.
7th March is when by trading system is developed. It did not go off to a good start as NDF dropped from 1.14 to a low of 1.11 while STI rose from 1.22 to 1.27. Its all about perseverance and recently, I've been rewarded for my patience. I reduced the 10+% difference to a 2% difference ever since. I'm never a fan of benchmarking indexes. However, by comparing it, it will justify that my method is accurate.
This mad surge of my equities, Hobee, GoldenAgri and CAO has made me float in the air.. haha. I must constantly remind myself not to get overconfident and to stick to my fast hard rules. If I screw up while using my rules, then so be it. But I do not want to regret doing something that I have done using intuitions. Most guys have lousy intuition, and I know I'm one of them.
Finally, a happy Good Friday to all and cheers!Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 7:12 AM |
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| Monday, April 02, 2007 |
| April 2nd |
What a day.. I'm burnt out due to school work.. and when I reached home.. i saw HoBee zoomed up again. Rotary finally moved after the long wait.. Others are not worth mentioning as they are still at where they are.
Guess for this month, I'll update once a week.. too tired...Labels: Ascott, CDL HTrust, ChinaAviationOil, GoldenAgri, HoBee, Olam, RafflesEdu, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:45 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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