Nenix Dreams

A journey on Trading

About Me
Information about me, how the site works and how I came to a decision to do this site.click here
Stock Sell Counter
Stock Sell Counter Rating

Under Construction

Transactions of stocks
Below is a table of stocks that I have traded before. This will be stickied on top of blog for easier navigation.

[+/-] A to D
[+/-] E to G
[+/-] H to L
[+/-] M to Q
[+/-] R to S
[+/-] T to Z
NTS Development Issues

Updated Portfolio
Currency Exchange
Friday, June 29, 2007
29th June Updates

My fund pulled back from 60+% to 53%. From this global correction, I held on to most of my holdings. One of the lessons I have learned is that my former calculation of risk per unit cost for CFD holdings is wrong. Shouldn't take contract value as calculations.

Anyway, will need time for transition. For the time being, these are the updates.

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posted by Nenix @ 10:19 PM   0 comments
TiongWoon
Loaded more to cost average upwards.

As these are done using CFD, I'm still unsure what type of average price should I state, but if its according to contract value, then its at an average of $1.04. Seems like my accumulation should be complete for the time being.

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posted by Nenix @ 2:16 PM   0 comments
Fatal error in system
Initially I thought if lets say I have 3 lots of rotary using cash bought at $1 and 3 lots of rotary bought at $1.10, the average cost should be $1.10.



But thing is, because when you are using CFD, the cost isn't just 3000 x $1.10. It is actually 3000 x $1.10 / 5. But if we use this formula, the cost average of Rotary would be [($1 x 3000) + ($1.10 x 3000 / 5) ] / 6000 = $0.61??



But that also means the risk per unit cost is magnified.



Hmm.. maybe this is a more accurate way calculation, so i guess there are two ways now. First, CFD positions should not be mixed with the cash portions. Secondly, I will use this new averaged cost since it will make me have a clearer picture of the whole portfolio.

But seriously, I think I really overlooked this point. Failed to grasp the over exposed risk. Any readers, if any, care to comment if I overlooked anything?

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posted by Nenix @ 10:36 AM   0 comments
Thursday, June 28, 2007
A rules players
Today, loaded more position of TiongWoong at $1.04, averaging to $1.03.

Meanwhile, Brightworld in the CFD account has been unloaded because of reducing momentum.

At an average cost of $0.60, Selling at around $0.62, it has an approximately 15+++% return.

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posted by Nenix @ 11:03 PM   0 comments
Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Rotary
Rotary is fully funded by CFD and it has hit my "cut loss" limit of 1.20.
I'm having mixed feelings about this because It is on a general uptrend but CFDs are like this, as it can just bite you if you are not careful.

If there is a lesson to be learnt, it would be because CFD risk management is different from my other holdings.

As my averaged cost is 1.08, i only will have 11% returns.
But because of CFD, it has been magnified to 50++%.

Yup.. I shall now move on then

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posted by Nenix @ 2:19 PM   0 comments
Random Thoughts #5
In what seems to be the third day of the negative runs, we need to ask ourselves this question. What do we base our purchase decisions on? On trends? On fundamentals? On momentum?

Whatever may be, the decision you take now must be based solely on your exit strategy at the point of loading your position. Right now, similar to the February correction, many people are giving different views all over the place. Contrarians still gives views contrary to market sentiments. Big shots giving warning over the bubble building. Technical analysts saying that it won't hold if it breaches below 3500. Fundamentals still holding on to their holdings.

Different views, but all boils down to the same conclusion. If you are a fundamentalist, follow it through and through. Don't switch to technical beliefs just because of fear. Likewise, if you are a speculator, dont switch to investment mode just because you have a loss.

Right now, I'm trying to calm myself. Haha.. The last correction, I needlessly sold off KepT&T and that is one thing I really regret.. So now, im stickign with my rules.. unless maybe my CFD has hit its limit. haha

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posted by Nenix @ 1:53 PM   0 comments
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
CFD calculator
Those who are using Poems will realise that their updates will be done on the next morning 530am. To me, its a bother as I update my stuff everyday from 8:30pm to 10:30pm.

Later I will update the CFD calculator. It will be at the side bar as usual. I think it is not as accurate as the one in POEMS because I didnt include the formula for renewal of contracts. But I guess it should be sufficient to estimate the overall portfolio value.

P.S. Correction seems to be in place. Should be healthy but must remember to be on my toes. Paper profits eroded and in honest truth, I'm feeling a little agitated. Haha.. Mental strength still need lots of leveling up. Fingers starting to get itchy. BUT, I tell myself "believe in it. Try it out and see if works. Profits are eroded in trend following, I know that. Just need to have faith in my style" Haha.. at least I have a outlet to vent my agitation on. Alright.. cheers to all then

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posted by Nenix @ 3:22 PM   0 comments
Portfolio Updates
Yesterday was too tired to update at night. But seems like most of my shares are retracing together with the market.

AsiaEnv - Its price movement is quite flimsy. Inability to sustain its price. Not on alert now but it seems like I need to keep an eye on it.

BioTreat - It is near my exit point. However, It will not be profitable if I exit. I might even incur losses.

Rotary - Its recent fall in price is a bit worrying. Maybe its due to profit taking after its recent climb. It doesn't help that the market is in a possible correction now.

OKP and TiongWoon - Both bought just before the fall. Can't complain much that it's at paper loss.

Seems like its another period whereby "PS3s" are lost day after day. haha.

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posted by Nenix @ 9:21 AM   0 comments
Monday, June 25, 2007
Exit Strategies in place
Market don't look good. :)

I'm so excited.
Seems like my exit strategies would be put to the test tomorrow.

And time to push out the old and spot some more gems during this time. And there I was preparing to take a good rest today.

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posted by Nenix @ 5:53 PM   0 comments
Random Thoughts #4
Who is the fool? When you sell something, you will feel that you are getting the better value. On the other hand, the one buying will think that he/she got it at a good value as well. Everyone thinks that they are right. Although the stock market isn't a zero-sum game, it's always a process of finding the bigger fool.

Everyone will think that they are right. But who is really right?

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posted by Nenix @ 3:15 PM   0 comments
Random Thoughts #3
In life, there are some who wow people through style. Stylish way of investing, multibagger returns, and something similar. But I dont think I can get that sort of return. 400% return on a stock A? 4000% on stock B? I don't think I ever could have the ability to find that. But then again, thinking back, does it really matter if it's 400%, 4000%, 4000000% returns?

To me, what matters is the absolute returns that you get. For the not-so-savvy-investor like me, I decided to choose a different route. Using properly managed leverage to help me. Thus, even a 5% return could possibly match a 400% return of another stock.

It's just like Naruto using its Kyubi chakra to do a Fuuton rasengan. But of course, this is a double edged sword. Carelessness could not be tolerated. But does that mean that I am incurring more risk? Nope. If you have your exit strategy properly planned out, things will never be as bad as it seems. Sure enough, my 60+% returns might be wiped out to maybe 40%, but that is the rule of the game. Survive so that you can fight another day.

I really envy some of my peers who could analyze a stock in such depth. But these are people who have their first-class honors, who are in the dean's list, who could pass level 1 CFA on first attempt. Alas, I am just a normal kid who dreams big, who degree is not even second-upper, who has never known what dean's list is all about, and of cos, getting dissappointing grades for all my finance modules in NUS.

Luckily, the market is a fairplace. It doesn't discriminate people. 'N' level, 'O' level, diploma, degree, dishwasher auntie, academic failures etc etc all have similar opportunities. So I'm glad that I'm not deprived of such opportunity. All I hope is that I could at least have decent returns in the future, save enough, so that hopefully by 45, I could start eating the fruits of my labor with my family and loved ones, and of cos be able to play games like no tomorrow.. haa.
For now, the tree I planted is just a sprout. haha.

Throughout this journey, I know this blog will be continually be updated with mistakes and bloopers. But I'm just a normal bloke and I know my mistakes will be more than my achievements. All I hope is that I have the calmness and rationality to think over it.




P.S Just felt like blabbering as most of my peers I talk to recently are all scholars, first-class honors with decent pay etc. But they aren't satisfied. Such is human nature I guess.

Measuring their value, their potential is much much higher than what I am, and seriously, I would swap my position with them anytime.

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posted by Nenix @ 2:13 PM   0 comments
Another Mid-day posting
Primary template is done!! I'm so proud of mysefl today. Just listed down the drawdowns of such methods. But for the moment, total automation is out of the picture. Still need time to test the system.

The template does help as I can analyze the effect of buying this particular shares. Some of the issues are being addressed.

Impact on portfolio:
Every addition of a position will affect the weightage of the portfolio. As a strong believer in riding profits, the weightage of good trending stocks must be higher than the others, but not to the extent of overweighing it such that diversification do not exist. This template calculates changes to overall risk, changes to potential returns of the stock, making it easier to compare the differences such that the loading of positions would be more optimal.

Suggested number of position to load:
Especially for new entries, risk entailed is usually higher. What this template does is that it could
suggest the number of lots to enter based on the amount of risk that I could still take. This is just a guideline though, which is derived from the volatility of the stock.

Technical Analysis
Thinking back, my focus is mainly on portfolio management. I'm not a hardcore technical analyst, but I do believe in effect of support and resistance as they are symptoms of the psychology of the mass market. This template look at basic indicators and just churn out the figures. Well, to date, I still can't automate the grading process, but this template makes it simpler as all the numbers are on 1 landscape A4 size paper.

Conclusion
I'm certainly proud of myself to come up with this. I know there are still some issues I need to consider and some cases I need to simulate to make sure that my edge still remains. The selling part is kinda tricky as my template is more biased towards the buying part.

Part 2 will be to enter the data for all my stocks for 2+ years. Thats a big chore. It would be wonderful if I have a personal assistant to help me out.. hahaha.. Well, for now, it's mostly DIY.

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posted by Nenix @ 1:50 PM   0 comments
Saturday, June 23, 2007
Equity Calculator
Just made the equity calculator! Just some simple formula inputing (I wish everything was that easy).

Made this because the calculator in Fraser didn't update the clearing fees. Anyway.. its now at the side of the bar under calculator.

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posted by Nenix @ 9:48 AM   0 comments
23June Update











Friday didn't end off well, but on the whole things are looking good in my opinion. Maybe some of the underperforming ones are MiddleEast and BioTreat, but the rest are trending the way it should be.

TiongWoon and OKP are loaded recently. One of the reasons is that I feel some of my holdings seems to run their full course. So these 2 are potentially replacements for them. Entered a small position to "test-water".

The potentially peaked holdings are probably BrightWorld and MiddleEastD. Although the former has been trending, the decreasing volume presents liquidity risk, making the bid-ask spread wider.


P.S. Still working on the dossier. Added some new elements to simulate portfolio changes. I think the template is about 40%. More time will be required, whereby after that, it will be data population for the past 2 years!!. That will most prob make me go mad.

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posted by Nenix @ 8:28 AM   0 comments
Friday, June 22, 2007
Tiring Pt 2
Slept in front of my com at 3+am yesterday.. Still rushing throught the building of templates and necessary vba codes. Not easy I tell you. Haha.. and I'm still rushing it now at my workplace.

Seems like now, I'm now totally obsessed about trading/investing. The challenge of finding the "edge" is soooo fun.

Will update my endweek portfolio at night then.. Have fun!

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posted by Nenix @ 1:45 PM   0 comments
Tiring
I'm now on my way to do my dossier. It's not as easy as I thought it would be. Linking Formulas, parameterizing it, is tough as hell.. Just to whine, but I guess, no pain no gain :)

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posted by Nenix @ 12:00 AM   0 comments
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Back to Reality
After the mini-celebration for hitting the 60% mark, its time to go back down to Earth.

After today's close, there are some potential trend reversals in my portfolio.

1. MiddleEastD: SAR indicates a reversal/retracement is around the corner. MA is converging to the 26day line. Signs of growth of the stock slowing down. MACD is also showing bearish signs. One positive sign is that the volume today (5million) is hugely different from that of 1 week ago.(7 million). Contra players might be weeded out, thus consolidation phase might be complete soon. The cutloss is at $0.35 and it would be a test of nerve for me to hold out till then.

2. BioTreat: Retracement is underway. However, this phase seems to be coming to an end soon.

3. AsiaEnv: SAR indicates a reversal soon. MACD diverges downwards and away from the signal line. Retracement is in place. Judging from 1 lotters from times/sales, price might be suppressed by big players.

On the whole, things are ok, but I should always stay on my feet. These 3 are retracing and attention should be given to see if it retraces or reverse

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posted by Nenix @ 12:05 AM   0 comments
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
Fund Price reaching 60%!
Well, I have nvr expected this would happen. What I hoped to achieve is a 25+% p.a, and that to me, is a challenging target.

Throughout these months, especially since the big correction, I've learned lots of stuff, I have tweaked my strategy, and most importantly, I am more calm and collected. If it was 2 years ago, most of my holdings would have been realised ( Breaks my principle of riding the profits).

I have also done away with a top ceiling for selling.

Overall, I think the concept of my method is very primitive. Hold when concentration of demand is higher than supply, and sell when its the other way round.

Its already halfway through 2007. lets hope all investors and traders will get what they wished for.

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posted by Nenix @ 2:56 PM   0 comments
Monday, June 18, 2007
OKP and TiongWoon
Entered the trend. I have to admit I entered when the trend is already very distinct. Couldn't enter in the past because of lack of funds.


OKP - entered at $0.685. The momentum is still building up with strong divergence in MACD, MFI in the overbought zone, SAR still showing no signs of converging.

TiongWoon - entered at $1.02. Momentum is falling, MFI fell below the overbought zone, SAR closing in. It could enter into a retracement soon. However, overall trend is up, thus I decided to buy and stick with the retracement than to miss the boat if it does not retrace.

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posted by Nenix @ 1:20 PM   0 comments
Saturday, June 16, 2007
Portfolio Analysis 16th June 2007
As mentioned, most of my holdings have reached the point of 'zero' risk. The only ones that still holds risk are MiddleEastD and BioTreat.

These two counters takes up 21% of my total risk set aside for my portfolio. So for the time being, the buffer is tremendously huge as 89% of risk is left unused. While I would love to take on a little more risk, it would extremely difficult to pull of as I need to transfer more funds to my CFD account. To take on the additional risk, I need to simulate a sudden correction and determine how I would react to it.

If there is one downside to my portfolio, it would be the fact that I didn't try to use up more risk limit. Reducing the buffer to 25% unused would be ideal.


Today has been a tiring day, most probably start my dossier on Sat. But its lots of info for me to print I guess, so seems like the printing is out, unless i divide my dossier into more parts, with one being the summary. We'll see when I started filling in the data

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posted by Nenix @ 1:20 AM   0 comments
Friday, June 15, 2007
Portfolio update on 15th June 2007

This week closes well and as a result, i beat the STI index. Of cos, I know many of you would be saying "Big deal, in a bull market its not difficult to do that", but to me, that is the first step to growing my funds. I admit, I'm lucky to start my trading in the bull run.


Look at all the mistakes I've made, if not for the bull market, I think I would have said bye-bye already.

Anyway.. This is the second time I've beat STI, hope that I could sustain it this time, unlike the previous one, which was met by the February 2007 correction.

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posted by Nenix @ 11:50 PM   0 comments
Thursday, June 14, 2007
No news is good news
Haven been updating much recently cos nothing much to write also. Things are going well with Rotary and ChinaAOil surging upwards recently. (Holding a large proportion of my portfolio, this certainly boosts the NDF price)

AsiaEnv is moving smoothly up and Biotreat seems to be heading for a move too.

MiddleEast and Brightworld are kinda flat at the moment

Guess I'm kinda lucky I think.

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posted by Nenix @ 9:26 PM   0 comments
Wednesday, June 13, 2007
Recent Updates
ChinaAviationOil - Slowly recovering from its retracement. Maybe 2 more weeks, and it shall embark on a new climb.

AsiaEnv -Still continuing its new climb. Nothing much to comment

BrightWorld - MACD showing signs of reversing. $0.60 seems to be its peak but as trend followers, lets see how far it goes

BioTreat - Still continuing its slow and steady climb. Nothing much to comment too

MiddleEastD - Going through what seems like a retracement, uptrend still intact though

Rotary - After a long consilidation, the breakout sure is significant. Might be increasing position tomorrow

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posted by Nenix @ 12:30 AM   0 comments
Tuesday, June 12, 2007
To Do List
Despite working, this is still the holdiay period and I must fork out sometime to do the following.


1. Work on finalizing my NTS using VBA(which I learn while working) to automate it.
Deadline: Before August 2007
Details:
- It should be able to give a rating to a long position and/or short position.
- It should be able to determine how much to hold based on its risk involved.
- It should be able to aid in determining when to sell.

2. Work on the report of my hypothesis and analysis
Deadline: Ongoing
Details:
- NTS is based on rules that I hypothesize so documentation is needed. At the moment, it is very messy, with pieces of word documents in different folders. Need to consolidate them.

3. Work on a stocks dossier (not sure if spelt correctly)
Deadline: 30th June 2007/Ongoing
Details:
- Need to critic all my buy and sell trades since 2005. Luckily I have records of the figures. However, most of the charts factored in bonus issues etc, and thus makes it difficult to check the charts etc. I will take a look into it and see how it goes.
- This dossier will be kept in softcopy and printed out as well. Reason is such that I can look into my mistakes (plenty) and learn from it.

4. Clean up the blog outlook
Deadline: 31st July 2007
Details:
- The categories abit cluttered. Will have to rearrange those
- The links on types of stocks traded is to overwhelming. Maybe I should sort it alphabetically.

Guess with all this dealines, my playing time on online games have to be reduced.. haha.. Don't want to, but no choice.

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posted by Nenix @ 11:42 AM   0 comments
Monday, June 11, 2007
Random Thoughts #2
Trend followers follow trend. So lets say, one day, the position I hold could create an impact on the price movement, does that mean that the method is skewered? Or maybe purchase in seperate bulks, using different brokerage firms, or CFD (which I believe will not affect the market) will be a good idea?

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posted by Nenix @ 11:50 AM   0 comments
Penny for thought
I was checking my past stocks. During that period of buying (Hosen, straitsAsia etc) , which is known as overdiversifcation for me, I made the mistake of holding too much positions. But check the prices out now. It's a pity that I couldn't ride on the wave because I'm holding too much positions. The takeaway from this is to be patient and the cutloss limits should be different as that of the blue chips. I shall be more careful next time I venture into blue chips.

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posted by Nenix @ 10:53 AM   0 comments
Saturday, June 09, 2007
8th June 2007 portfolio updates

This is the monthly update for my portfolio. Things look rosy at the moment as they all reap reasonable profit, considering the fact that I made some mistakes. Lessons have been learned and I know I am more disciplined now. Maybe a further drop on Monday will test my resolve. haha.


P.S Just realised that I forgot to change the date in the table.. Anyway, it should be dated 8th June 2007

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posted by Nenix @ 1:37 AM   0 comments
Friday, June 08, 2007
Random thoughts #1
Was thinking.. If volume of a rising equity is decreasing during an uptrend, it's supposed to mean that it is a sign of a bearish uptrend. Does that mean lesser peopler people are willing to support the price? Likewise, for a decreasing volume with decreasing price, does that mean that people are more willing to hold, which might mean that people are actually supporting the price?

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posted by Nenix @ 1:41 PM   0 comments
Brief Roundup for thursday
Its Friday now, and due to Dow drop, it might drop today, but I will do a little roundup for yesterdays holding.

Rotary - Sudden breakout recently and while its MACD diverges, whether the momenttum will be build upon is another issue. I doubt the resistance will hold in today's drop though

BrightWorld - Since it's low of 30+ cents, it has been showing a strong reversal, which is reinforced when it passes the resistance of $0.45. This breakout, coupled with EMA crossovers, makes me sure that it is an uptrend. How long this can sustain, I don't know but it seems like it isn't stopping now. And personally I think it's a good thing that not many has noticed this stock (lesser volatilty due to band trading traders)

MiddleEastD - Similar to BrightWorld, since its low of 10+ cents, it has been showing a strong reversal, with further reinforcement as it breaks through the 30 cents mark. This one has lots of attention, as observed in SI forums. Not neccesarily a bad thing but it will most prob stay flat till demand > supply (meaning more long term holders holding it)

AsiaEnv - After the accumulation recently, it has begun to move. Whether its sustainable is another issue. But from evidence, it is on a healthy uptrend.

ChinaAviationOil - This accumulation is much longer than anticipated. Maybe the dash from $1.10 to $1.95 in less than 3 months is too much for it. Trend remains intact with strong support at $1.88-$1.91. Another push seems to be evident and we would have to wait and see.

BioTreat - Its puzzling when someone in SI mention that it is trading sideways. How is it sideways when the price increase from its low 50+cents to todays 90+ cents in around 7 months? 80% increase in this period of time isn't sideways, and to me, this is one of my prefered stocks. Steady growth without much hoo-ha about it. By the time hoo-haa comes in, it will most probably be more accelerated. Looking at how things are going, if not for the $1.03 surge recently, it would most probably continue its steady climb. But for now, it seems as though its waiting to weed out the contra players and the attention before continuing its climb.

Today will definitely see a drop. But its also a good time to tell which are resilent. Just like how I picked out HoBee, Golden Agri and CAO, I will be hoping to pick some gems if things turn sour.

Of cos, I will also close some of my positions as well if it triggers. More review will be done at the end of the day..

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posted by Nenix @ 9:01 AM   0 comments
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Divine Diversification?
Just some food for thought. How much should you diversify? Is diversification that divine?

From academic books, diversification in equities reduces risk, which is true IF you know how. But is this broad approach good for retail small time investors like us?

The saying is always not to put all eggs in to one basket. But whats the point of having so many baskets when you only have a few eggs? Remember, baskets are not free (transaction costs) and if your eggs are not worth much, there's no point in getting so much baskets.

I have suffered from overdiversification in the past, holding plenty of penny stocks, and I do understand the difficulty in managing them (imgaine walking around carrying lots of baskets). Ever since, I have reduced the number of eggs (holdings) and increasing their position size.

Of cos, there is this risk that one might lose the basket, that is why one must always be vigilant about it. With a clear mind (without fear or greed) and decisiveness, risk incurred due to human cognitive bias are significantly reduced.

In conclusion, my take is NOT to overdiversify. And what I do know for certainty is that baskets dont come cheap, and in reality, there is more room for error if I am carrying too many baskets.

P.S. wanted to post the charts of my holdings but I was too tired yesterday. Maybe I will do it tonight.

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posted by Nenix @ 8:46 AM   0 comments
Wednesday, June 06, 2007
Risk of holdings
Evaluating the risks of my holdings, CAO, AsiaEnv, BrightWor, and Rotary has now passed the point whereby my cutloss price is higher than my purchased averaged price. This makes that a "zero" risk holding.

CAO: Averaged @ $1.7. Cutloss @ $1.80
AsiaEnv: Averaged @ $0.827. Cutloss @ $0.837
BrightWor: Averaged @ $0.528. Cutloss @ $0.554
Rotary: Averaged @ $1.04. Cutloss @ $1.058


The only one remaining are MiddleEastD and BioTreat, with the latter bearing the highest risk of all.

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posted by Nenix @ 9:46 PM   0 comments
A brighter tomorrow
Entered more position at $0.60 to average up my position size to $0.53.
Trend looks healthy. I could always wait for a retracement but thinking back, if its a good stock with high momentum, even at retracement, it is still at a high price.

Light seems to be shining on this bright world for a brighter tomorrow (Haha.. cheesy I know)

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posted by Nenix @ 5:17 PM   0 comments
Monday, June 04, 2007
Too pricey?
As mentioned the day before, I went on to up my holdings.
Bought AsiaEnv @ 0.85
Bought ChinaAviation @ 1.98
Bought BioTreat @ 0.94

My bro told me its too pricey but to me, being a trend follower, it is showing a good trend, especially AsiaEnv, after a good Friday closing which shows a probable beginning of a new trend.

BioTreat is as usual climbing up slowly and steadily (barring the Friday surge in price).

For ChinaAviationOil, today might be the end of the consolidation period.

Pricey or not? We shall see in the future

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posted by Nenix @ 8:06 PM   0 comments
Increasing the position size
Coming week, with a new injection of capital, I've decided to increase the stakes in AsiaEnv, BioTreat and ChinaAOil. I feel rather than overdiversification, concentration would be more ideal.

AsiaEnv shows a beginning of a possible upward movement together with BioTreat, while CAO is still in accumulating stage.

Coming week would be interesting on how things will pan out

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posted by Nenix @ 12:48 AM   0 comments
NenixDreams Fund
Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1

Target for 2007 = Beat STI index

Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58

Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54

Difference with STI index is 0.04

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