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| Sunday, September 30, 2007 |
| Hot China Stocks |
A china fund that allows investments in S-shares and H-shares. These are the china stocks in either Hong Kong or Singapore. If I'm not mistaken, they could also invest in those listed in NASDAQ. The only criteria seems to be that the company must have at least 50% of their businesses based in China.
To me, this is good news. China market has been quite insulated from world affairs, and it is a good thing as the scenario in US still seems abit unstable. In the near future at least, we would see liquidity flow into such stocks and they will be at unreasonably inflated levels. Personally, I feel pennies will be "stirr-fried" to a whole new high level. For me, I have CAO, FerroChina, AsiaEnv (dunno if asiaenv belongs to this category). Unfortunately, I am short of funds, thus unable to purchase more.
Time is short and people will once again go into the "easy-to-earn-from-stocks" mentality soon once it breaks higher than correction level. In fact, from the Share Investor forum posts, you can already sense optimism. Seems like its another run till correction time.
At the moment, lets just hope my stocks could surge next week. Don't like underperforming the STI index and dont like losing to my bro too.. haha..
To me, all counts for nothing if
1) you cant profit
2) you cant beat at least the singapore market
Long term goals
1) consistent returns in long run
2) at least on par with global indices (very tough)
Now, Im just aiming to hit my short term goals. Wish me luck! |
posted by Nenix @ 1:58 PM   |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Briefly looking back |
I used to pyramid my holdings (buy more when increasing). While it seems to be working (Cosco, CAO, OKP, TW, Rotary for example) I do feel that the diminishing returns with each topping up is not effective. I just feel it ain't right offsetting the profitable initial holdings with the later ones, which are less profitable. One can be very critical in my portfolio by saying that it is over diversified and much of the profits are eaten up by transaction costs. Come to think of it, it makes lots of sense, even though I defended my decision by saying that since my time horizon is more stretched, transaction costs would not be that significant as I am looking at the longer trend.
At the moment, maybe I'm really holding too much counters. My risk per position might be too small thus resulting in small positions all over. Maybe I should reduce to around 10 counters instead? This is one which I need to think through. But the balance of risk, return, costs incurred is making management very intricate.
I think at the moment, my portfolio seems ok. I've formulated my long term counters (untouchable for the foreseeable future) and my trading counters seems to be alright as well. My data entry has been shelved due to studies. So I guess, I have to really wait till year end to compare historical data. |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:49 AM |
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| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| 29th September update |
This week ended on a high note thanks to funds from China. Their recently structured funds state that they could invest in China stocks outside china which have more than 50% of its business outside China. This effectively meant stocks like FerroChina and ChinaAOil are the beneficiary. Today was a huge upgrade from my previous week. If you ask me if the trouble is over? My take is that, it doesnt seem so. American data are still weak. One thing that is certain is that China stocks will be surging next week. This is helped with the fact that China is having a 1 week holiday! Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:20 AM |
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| Friday, September 28, 2007 |
| Soilbuild |
Bought back some at $1.35. Satisfies the trigger. Right now, its a bit difficult to decide what are the best stocks technically as they are all triggering at the moment. Maybe some quality control over choice of stocks would be ideal. Anyway, I'm not sure if its good times for me at the moment as I might have been holding too many different shares.
I feel that a portfolio could be divided to portions. Each portion will have its own risk/return ratio and will be realized once triggers are hit. If each portion gets around 10% returns, after deducting the transaction fees, we would most probably be left with around 7-8%. Transaction fees are the devil in this management method thus, time horizon could not be very short. However, too long a time horizon takes away the possible edge for trading as you will exit or enter too late.
Tricky eh... Maybe lifetime learning is required, provided I could understand.Labels: Soilbuild |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:17 AM |
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| Thursday, September 27, 2007 |
| Facebook Craze |
Below is the link to a group I created in facebook. If there are people reading this blog, join the group and the discussions so we may benefit from it all. I will create forum topics there and I do hope there will be people. haha
http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=5202148961 |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:10 AM |
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| Sunday, September 23, 2007 |
| Risk Ratings |
As you all know by now, my measure of risk is calculated based on volatility. The following is my order of risk of my portfolio from those with highest risk to those with the least risk.
The format will be as follows, counter - rating - segment.
There will be 4 segments. Extremely risky (rating more than 20), risky (bewtween 10 to 20), moderate (5 to 10), Low risk (below 5)
Nenix's portfolio
MiddleEastDevelopment - 24.285 - Extremely risky
AsiaEnv - 12.857 - Risky
OKP - 12.830 - Risky
TiongWoon - 12.476 - Risky
HiapSeng - 11.978 - Risky
FerroChina - 11.972 - Risky
CAO - 11.759 - Risky
Swissco - 11.28 - Risky
Federal - 10.909 - Risky
Rotary - 9.214 - Moderate
CWT - 8.487 - Moderate
PacAndes - 8.108 - Moderate
FJBen - 7.928 - Moderate
Boustead - 6.394 - Moderate
LyxorChina H US$- 4.995 - Low risk
MMP Reit - 4.833 - Low risk
STI ETF - 3.858 - Low risk
Gold 10US$ - 2.087 - Low risk
Coincidentally, my long term funds are those with the least risk (MMP, STI ETF, Gold), which makes sense. I think I could further reduce my risk if I hedge my US denominated shares like LyxorChina and Gold. However, I have no idea how to go about doing it. Maybe I'll apply FX first before thinking of the course of action.Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 3:14 PM |
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| Saturday, September 22, 2007 |
| 21st September update |
 This week seems ok for me. After the fed cut, what surprised me is that most of the pennies did not move as expected. Maybe because the Singaporean culture is "kiasi", that's why most will wait and see. And then when it reaches unrealistic levels, they will be "kiasu" and chase the price.
Anyway, this month, I am quite pleased with what I have done. I have set acquired positions when the trend (both middle term and short term) just picks up. Ideally, this is the signal I would like. Although there are hiccups during this month, ChipengSeng and Yongnam in particular, I guess I am still decisive enough to cut my losses. Putting these stocks for a longer term basis, the cut loss triggers would naturally be lower and it is dangerous as it is possible that I might have the "hold-it-since-I-already-lost-so-much" mentality.
On the other hand, there are still critical issues that I did this month. The purchase of AsiaEnv using CFD is not a wise choice. Even though calculated, I should have known not use CFD as the trend is still not established. CAO also proves to be an issue even though it's still sitting nice in the longer term perspective.
Now my portfolio has been properly segmented. I have to count myself lucky to be able to have sufficient funds to do that.
My long term funds include:
STI ETF
MMP Reit
Gold 10US$
These 3 adds up to 18.72%, which is ideal from my point of view as I have an estimated target of 20% to 25%. The strategy to load up should be similar to how I invest in other equities. Make sure that the trend is present before loading up.
My other shares are mostly middle term and most of my counters are surprisingly from the Oil and Gas sector. I can assure you that this is purely coincidental as I purchased stocks through formation of trends. And they were the first to exhibit trends after the huge correction not so long ago.
Among all, CWT proves to be a surprise package. Strong momentum pushing it forward triggers my buying signal. Furthermore, it seems to be away from noise trading (contra traders, day traders etc). In fact, I'm quite glad most forums didn't talk about it. Hopefully it will continue to rise silently.
My thoughts on the economy:
This is my amateurish 2cents worth of the economy. I think there are at most 3 more distinct bull runs till recession hits US. Fed cuts doesn't seem to address the issues except instill more liquidity. This, in my opinion gives the market a chance to bail out the main players. If you think about it, who is still going to suffer? I think the retailers will still be the one absorbing the risks. At this moment, the players are going to withdraw their funds and my guess is they are going to channel it to Asia. Asia is slowly decoupling from the US fundamentally, and that is a good thing in my opinion. China's influence is growing and it seems that the bubble is closely managed by China. Don't think it will crash so soon though. There will be lots of new regulations and many many corrections along the way but I think its nothing serious.
In the local context, I will just have to say, Singapore isn't world class at all. The investors are just too kiasi. Its too sentiment driven in my opinion causing systematic risks in Singapore to be quite high (hopefully, this is the correct term). We have a lack of strong hands and maybe more funds from fundamental companies will be able to guide this kiasi market.
1) I think we will have more lousy days than good ones but the good run ups will be fast and furious.
2) The run up should start soon all the way till year end so the rational thing to do is to hold.
3) Short term indicators might not be overly effective as it is whipsawing too frequently now.
Anyway, to cut the long story short, investing at this moment might still be risky as global climate is still shaky. However, now might be a good time to enter as most investors have already factored in the subprime issues. China's economy might be crucial as well as it has a strong impact on sentiment here. Relative risk free commodities like Gold are showing good trends and I have thus ride on the boat even though the intention is more long term than short.
Sit tight, and enjoy the ride...Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:52 PM |
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| Thursday, September 20, 2007 |
| Missing Update |
Was busy last week, thus didn't post the update. Anyway, the only difference is that I have cut on both Yongnam and Chipengseng. Both have hit my cutloss trigger. It's significant losses due to stretched time horizon. I have bought Gld 10US$ at 71.6. This completes my long term segment of my portfolio. This segment comprises of MMP Reit, STI ETF and Gold. MMP is still available for technical short though (sell now, buy again later) in crucial times. This week, we see "good" news with FED cutting the rates. However, I feel it is a short term measure and this will only make matters worse in times to come. However, as a trend follower, its still the same. "Ride the trend". Just be careful when you trade though. |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:55 AM |
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| Friday, September 14, 2007 |
| Results of tweaking |
Tweaked my risk management.. and WOW! I realized that by switching to a long term perspective, my risk incurred more than doubled. You see, if I'm using short term, the cut loss will based on the volatility of the daily charts. However, as I'm switching to mid-term, I would have to use at least weekly charts. This has an impact as using daily volatility as cut loss is just too unrealistic. However going long term means that cut loss is wider and thus cut loss point will be wider. I'm damn shocked that most of my cut loss limits are so wide. That it seems a bit scary. In fact, I feel its unrealistic too. But hey, its a direct translation of my short term methods. So I guess, this is how it looks like when it's magnified.
Anyway, things seems good now, but that doesn't mean that everything will recover. Over exuberance will only lead to another correction. Lets just hope its slow and steady. In fact, it would be better if it crawls to a point no one really notices it. |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:28 AM |
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| Thursday, September 13, 2007 |
| A slow transition of style |
Recently, maybe due to the volatility, my time horizon is slowly switching from short term ( few weeks) to a longer term (few months). While my triggers are still the same, in which I will most probably buy at a short term level, it is more of just "getting in while its hot". I will however, look at the longer trend indicators and make more of my judgements based on that indication.
One of the main reason is that "noise" might accidentally trigger my sell signal/cut loss even when its on an uptrend. This shouldn't be the case though. Thus now, by looking at the longer time horizon, price shocks that arise will more often than not be rectified within the next few days.
Secondly, due to time commitments, it is not easy for me to monitor my stocks constantly during the short term. Sure enough, I know I will miss out on profits as my cut loss will be more delayed, but that is part of the price. My main objective is to find the balance on cutting loss on short term or loading on long term.
Remedy: My triggers are still the same, I will use the same cut loss strategies as before. However, this is where my experiement will come in. If a cut loss trigger is sounded at close, I will close my positions the next day. If not, I will look at the weekly data, looking to see if it breaches the the long term trigger. Of cos, if it triggers that signal, I have to sell it.
Rationale: I want to ignore the noise but sometimes, price shocks does trigger the exit signal. Using the longer perspective, I have the second layer to observe my holdings. Granted that the loss will be more severe if I cut using the long term, but this also allows me to filter out the noises.
Next, due to such tweakings, the buying strategy will have to change. No longer will I buy just on short term surges. Buys will have to be in the period when there is a potential retracement in the longer perspective. This is to ensure myself capturing the most of the longer time horizon.
Top up buys might be reduced (pending) because top ups usually occurs during market runs. Trying to buy at the support level of both the short and middle-term is not easy.
With all these, the exit strategy (Note that this is different from cut loss) will be different. I guess, in the nutshell, if its bought at the support level of the mid-term indicators, it should be sold using that indicator. That is the ideal case. But sometimes, if it triggers both, what should I base it on? Maybe I should base in on the short term first, as it is of higher priority? Or maybe I should base on the longer term. If I were to make a decision now, I would choose the short term. This is to better protect my capital. Until it reaches a certain price ("zero" risk), then I would switch to longer term. Haha.. this is getting complicated now.
In a nutshell:
Buy criteria
1. Risk incurred must be within limits
2. Postiion to buy must not vary too much from the intended risk to take
3. Must fulfill short term indicators that shows momentum AND mid-Term retracement (This does not mean downtrend even though it is close to a downtrend)
4. Topping up of positions not reccomended now as each batch of positions loaded should be treated on its own and not be averaged. However, if it fulfils criteria 1 to 3, then it is ok to load.
Cut loss
1. Short term indicators are still important and it will still be the rule to follow. (Maybe, the cutloss multiplier should be modified based on current market volatility)
2. As trading during the day is often guided by excessive fear or greed, EOD triggered during that time should be taken into consideration and closing it only if it doesn't reverse after mid-day. (this wont happen if multiplier is carefully set)
Exit
1. Short term indicators cut if position is loaded solely based on short term indicators
2. Short term has priority if its based on both mid-term and short term indicators
3. Long term has priority if its based solely on long term indicators.
ARgh.... seems like a lot of fine tuning needs to be done. I must make sure to back test on past records as this is one possible mistakes traders will make. They think that their refined methods will work now but thats because of a few cases. Few failed cases doesn't make the method wrong. So when fine-tuning, make sure it is an improvement. And as a reminder to myself. Do not over-optimize. This trading system shouuld be robust and flexible, behind the systematic approach..Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 1:41 PM |
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| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 |
| Overal update on my holdings |
AsiaEnv
MidTerm perspective
- A reversal seems to be in place even though it is still unclear at this point if it is a temporary pullback.
- The 12w and the 26w EMA touches and it could be observed that midterm wise, it does not bode well as it soon going to trend downwards.
- However, recent signs have been positive with MACD improving and price surging
ShortTerm perspective
- What we see is that the dust has finally settled at around $0.60. The 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA, albeit its small magnitude.
- Thinning volume, coupled by a healthy SAR indicator, and improving MACD, with MFI increasing strength, all points to price surging upwards.
My take
- It is understandable that the drop in prices in the bigger picture displays a downtrend.
- However, strong readings from several indicators in the short term all points to a strong recovery. I will top up my holdings on this once it hits my buying trigger. At the moment, my finances are a little bit tight.
Boustead
MidTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5w, 12w, 26w EMA. Judging from the charts, the 5w EMA sits firmly above the 12w EMA
ShortTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5d, 12d, 26d EMA.
- Currently, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. This is an indication that it is experiencing a pullback.
- This can be observed by the drop in the MFI index, indicating a movement to weaker market strength.
- However, the important thing is that volume is extremely thin. Even for today's price drop to $2.28, only 1 lot has been done.
My take
- In the Mid-term perspective, things still look as good. On the shorter term though, it seems as the price is being pressured downwards. However, the volume is extremely thin and it could suggest that either there are strong hands are trying to push down the price so that indicators will indicate a selling sign or weak hands panic selling in this sort of volatile environment. I personally believe that it is the former as weak hands are most probably weeded out during the meltdown in mid-August.
- So it should still be a strong hold. Of cos, as my system is based on buy and sell triggers, it is likely that it could be forced down to my selling point. I will make my decision when it reaches that point.
ChinaAOil
MidTerm perspective
- Price movement suggests that it is undergoing a retracement. This is particularly attributed to the meltdown however, even before the meltdown, you could see the surge slowing down. At one time, it seems as though it might just drop down hitting a price of $1.78, however it recovered to the $2.38 range. - Indicators, in particular the SAR, shows that retracement will still continue and there are no signs of a reversal yet
ShortTerm perspective
- Short term however, we have seen prices trying to surge only to be halted due to overall market sentiment. - The 5d EMA and the 12d EMA seems to cross up soon though, coupled by decreasing volume, is an indication that a reversal might be coming sooner rather than later. - At the moment, the counter does not clearly show any direction, even though we are looking at lesser price ranges. My take
- From the midterm perspective, it is understandable that it retraces after a lengthy surge. The credit crisis certainly acts as a catalyst for the retracement. - From the short term perspective, it could be an indication to load up now as the thinning volume suggests that there will be a breakout in price soon. ChipEngSeng
MidTerm perspective
- Similar to CAO, it is currently showing a retracement chart.
- The uptrend is still intact with prices still at the support line.
- It might be testing to break $0.90 in the following weeks.
ShortTerm perspective
- SAR is still healthy even though the prices are trading at a level very near my selling trigger.
- CES is currently showing weakness in the very short term, with MACD and MFI all showing unfavorable readings.
- However, we could observe a few points in recent times. Firstly, price recovery since mid August has been strong and it is observed by huge volumes. Secondly, recent selldowns are in small volumes compared to those during the recovery period. This just means that this period is most probably a profit-taking period rather than a panic-selldown prelude. If you need to find a term for a price chart, it would be a "flag". According to books, this means that a breakout is imminent.
My take
- I need to reiterate that as trend followers, we DO NOT predict future prices. Thus, though I might predict that it might test $0.90 in following weeks, it does not mean that I have to buy based on that decisions. In fact, I bought at $0.93 one week ago. Regardless, the long term trend is still intact, thus there is not much worry to sell.
- Short term wise, as this is a top volume counter, we would expect to see lots of fluctuations. Trendlines bound to be whipsawed frequently.
- I have bought at $0.93 and my cutloss is at $0.805. My only regret is that I should refrain from entering this counter when it is top volume. Such volume often makes the indicators skewed. Anyway, my selling trigger is near. So depending on how things go, I might have to sell this soon.
CWT
MidTerm perspective
- Severly tested the 26w EMA. However, it recovers very quickly.
- This shows that this is a rather resilient counter. Needless to say, the uptrend is still intact.
ShortTerm perspective
- Very impressive. Its 5d EMA has cut both its 12d and 26d EMA.
- Price surge coupled by increased volume is a bullish indication.
- Short term uptrend firmly in place.
My take
- Both short term and middle term charts are amazingly bullish.
- Not a good time to enter now though as MFI seems to tread into overbought region soon.
- However, this stock might be a good counter by year end as it certainly seems to have the momentum to propel upwards.
Federal
MidTerm perspective
- Another stock bought due to amazing recovery. The chart is similar to CWT although it just tested the 12w EMA.
- Its Midterm retracement seems to be coming to an end soon, indicating that the uptrend will continue soon.
ShortTerm perspective
- Looks good as well due to its uptrend even though it seems that it will be trading at this price for sometime.
- Volume still hasn't thinned yet, indicating that there might be more upside within the next few days.
My take
- Just hold it. Like CWT, it doesn't show any apparent weakness in price movement yet.
FerroChina
MidTerm perspective
- Heavily battered counter during the correction
- However, it still has not break the 26w EMA
- It is at the moment trending sideways though as it recovers slowly from the correction.
ShortTerm perspective
- 5d EMA cuts the 12d EMA, thinning volume, converging prices, all leads to point out that it is recovering.
- Breakout seems imminent, even though I bought it when the EMA intersected.
My take
- Seems ok. I would say, this is similar to CAO in its huge surge. Thus it is understandable that it retraces.
- I would collect more if I had more finances.
FJBen
MidTerm perspective
- Broke the 26w EMA during correction but recovered strongly the following week. Indicates its resilience.
- Price converging in midterm horizon suggest that a breakout in price is imminent and it will set itself to trend in that direction.
ShortTerm perspective
- Thinning volume, trading sideways at the moment
- EMAs seems to converge (not a good thing)
My take
- Seems like it doesn't have momentum to propel it, even though signs are showing that there will be a surge soon, upwards or downwards.
- It is difficult at the moment as I feel most are sitted in the sidelines.
Part 2 to continue next time.....Labels: AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, ChipEngSeng, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:04 PM |
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| Sunday, September 09, 2007 |
| 9th September update |
Been busy with school stuff. Forgot to update. Anyway, on the whole, market is shaky and I expect to see red on Monday and Tuesday. However, as a systems trader, all I should do is to make sure my cut losses are tight.
Anyway the update is on the right. |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:21 PM |
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| Thursday, September 06, 2007 |
| My views on ChipEngSeng |
This is from a technical point of view. And i will try as much as possible to draw conclusions from the charts.
Firstly, ChipEngSeng closed at its lowest on 17th August at $0.65. and closed at its highest on 3rd September at $0.905. That is a 39.23% recovering from its low. Volume in general has gone up in tandem with the price. This means that concentration of buyers is higher than that of sellers.
Deductions: In times of uncertainty like now, investors/traders would have taken the sub-prime risk into considerations. The major retailers left in this market are most probably savvy day/short term traders and/or long term investors who believe that the subprime risk will not affect the business of the company drastically.
Thus the rapid recovery could be pointed to the fact that these people find this a good stock to go into. To me, that is a good sign that it is resilient. However, the huge volumes would suggest that contra-players might be in place and volatility of the stock IS to be expected.
Secondly, It is resilient. Looking at the weekly indicators (5w,12w,26w EMA), the 12w EMA was barely even close to the 26w EMA.
Deductions: Though EMAs, especially those of longer time horizon are lagging, it is useful in filtering out the noise. It goes on to show that long term wise, it is going in the right direction
My views: After rising so much since the low, whats the fuss about the retracement? Surely you don't expect share prices to rise everyday right? For now, I think we wont be able to expect share prices to keep cheonging like no tomorrow. And it is clearly indicated by its ATR. In fact almost all the stocks I hold belong to the highly volatile catergory, (STI ETFs, Lyxor China H, MMPReits being the exception). I have set my cutloss of Chip to be at $0.80 and I think it is reasonable considering the situation now.Labels: ChipEngSeng |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:07 AM |
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| Wednesday, September 05, 2007 |
| Reminder to Self |
It doesn't matter which indicator you use to buy and sell. But the crux, in my opinion, is to find the matching time horizon. Lets say, if you use a 200day moving average to make your buy decision, you should not use the 5day moving average to determine your sell position. If you go for a longer horizon, stick with it.
For me at the moment, recent events made this a unique situation. Cos most of my stocks triggered both the mid-term (5weeks, 12 weeks, 26weeks MA) and short term (5days, 12days, 26days MA). So if that's the case, then priority will be set on the shorter term.
Right now, I have difficulty categorizing which period should I put it in. I guess due to its volatility, I shall park it in my short term account at the moment. Will move these stocks to mid-term once the market is not as volatile as expected. |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:19 AM |
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| Monday, September 03, 2007 |
| Another Trigger point hit |
Triggered my buying signals for YongNam and ChipEngSeng. Bought positions relative to the risk taken. Loaded at $0.44 and $0.93 respectively.
I have not much to comment, only the fact that more and more are hitting my buying trigger and it is soon hitting my total risk limit. I need to carefully monitor my holdings as well. Hopefully, things will not be too difficult to handle.Labels: ChipEngSeng, YongNam |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:55 PM |
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| Sunday, September 02, 2007 |
| End August Highlights |
This month is rather bad due to its volatility. I have seen my profits (unrealized) cut from 70+% to a recent value of 41%. Market is still volatile, but no doubt, we have seen reversals in the price. In my opinion, it takes a lot of bad news to push the price below the bottom of the recent correction. Recently I have loaded in positions. I have decided to spread my risk by getting more equities. Like in my previous posts, what rebounded back strongly shows good support by the fundamentalists. Rotary, PacAndes, Boustead, Federal, TiongWoon, FerroChina all came back strongly.
If you ask me if I should top up or to load more in other positions, it really depends on the situation. At the moment, my current holdings have stretched my risk limit to a significant level. However, as I have now gone against the idea of cost averaging, each position loaded will be treated uniquely. For example MMPReit at 1.17 will be treated different with that of MMPReit at 1.09. Both will now have different cut loss points. I feel this is fairer as the position bought at a
lower price should not be burderned by a position bought at a higher price.
Anyway, with regards to my portfolio, during the correction/reversal, I managed to load up some STI ETF funds. To my surprise, this fund is severely illiquid with its bid ask spread being significantly huge. And furthermore, it does not track the STI. when STI went below 3000, never once did I see this fund go below this level. Anyway, this ETF is meant to be put for a longer period and I have not intentions of letting it go. The same should go for MMP Reit as I will be holding it for long periods of time. These two instruments (Reit and ETF) take up about 10+% and it will be my foundation. Other stocks are meant for trading with accordance to my trend following rules and right now, these positions are loaded because they have met my criteria. Due to fear, I did not go short and I think that will boil down to lost opportunities. Anyway, hope things are bright and rosy for the month of September, even though I think September will still be a bad month.Labels: NenixDreams Fund |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:35 AM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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