|
| Tuesday, May 29, 2007 |
| Review on the Risk incurred |
Today, I loaded more Middle East Development stocks. Today's retracement shouldn't be of worry as it is understandable due to attractive prices for profit taking. Anyway, long term trend still looks healthy.
I will now review my risks of the fund.
As i have a stop loss mechanism, it works such that if during a trading day, everything collapse, i will lose only a set percentage of my portfolio (10%).
For every stock, there is a different level of stop loss. Those with higher risk, have a larger stop loss while lesser risk have lower stop loss.
Reviewing the stocks, after recent loading of MiddleEast and BioTreat, only CAO and Brightworld have zero risk (the exit strategy would ensure no loss will be incurred).
The CPL that i used have its flaws after I realise that a mid-term strategy could not be coupled with a short-term one. Im looking into it.. but its so damn intricateLabels: MiddleEastD, NenixDreams Fund |
posted by Nenix @ 12:43 AM   |
|
|
|
| Thursday, May 24, 2007 |
| Not so Noble after all |
Cut loss on NobleGroup. Feeling sianz because I really dont feel like selling. But I have to keep to my rules. Its really tough but one must think of the bigger picture. One losing trade does not mean that I have a losing portfolio. Luckily this is a bull run, so mistakes made on trading are not magnified since uptrends are more predominant than downtrends generally.
In the end, I cut at $1.50. My cutloss is $1.53. I hesitated for $0.03 and I paid the price.Labels: NobleGroup |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:17 PM |
|
|
|
|
| 23rd May update |
Liverpool Lost.. sighz.. oh well, there is always a next year..
AsiaEnv - It is still consolidating, though signs are signs are pointing towards a reverse. Price might start picking up sooner rather than later.
BrightWorld - Unexpected reverse, thought it might need more time. SAR, MACD, and RSI all showing positive signs.
BioTreat - As stated yesterday, its relative stability of trend makes it a plus for trend followers. Breakout of the $0.90 mark. This might mark the beginning of a second run.
ChinaAOil - Price close seems to indicate a reversal. But I'm still holding firm that it might be going to a consolidation stage soon. Will hover within the $1.90 and $1.94 range.
MiddleEastD - Weak momentum is its drawback. However, things might pick up after the consolidation period.
NobleGroup - Gapped down due to huge placement. Positives from the EOD is that it closes higher than the opening. Will be volatile for the next few days. The cut loss point is exactly the closing price. Will thus look at the closing price tomorrow before making a decision
Rotary - Held their ground well at $1.07. Might finally start the move upwards
NTS System
This system I'm trying to develop will help determine the ratings of a particular stock, paying special attention to its risk involved.
A brief summary of the risk spectrum in my portfolio.
MiddleEastD - 5.6 High risk
NobleGroup - 4.2 Medium-High risk
CAO - 4 Medium-High risk
AsiaEnv - 3.29 Medium risk
BrightWorld - 2.82 Low risk (unexpected)
Rotary - 2.8 Low risk
Bio Treat - 2.66 Low risk
This numbers are calculated using some formula I'm testing out.
And its only 1/3 complete.
Furthermore, I have no idea why MiddleEastD is so high up and BrightWorld is so low.
Will have to look into it in greater depthLabels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 4:54 AM |
|
|
|
| Wednesday, May 23, 2007 |
| Liverpool will win the Champions League |
Out of post topic but tonight is the showdown between Milan and Liverpool. Hopefully, I will not have to suffer similar first half despair 2 years ago. Milan is a good team but considering the fact that they struggled against Celtic and Bayern, they are not as brilliant as everyone thought. Winning Man U 3-0 was a feat but Man U at that time has been leaking goals. Furthermore, in my opinion, Man U have a soft centre, which thus allows Kaka to roam freely. Liverpool have a much stronger central mid than Manure.
My prediction will be a close victory to liverpool within 90minutes.
You'll Never Walk Alone!!! |
| posted by Nenix @ 11:50 AM |
|
|
|
| Tuesday, May 22, 2007 |
| 22nd May updates |
Recently, due to work, I have not been able to find time to blog. Today, however, I decided to briefly update my blog.
AsiaEnv - It is now going through a consolidation stage. MACD and RSI shows that the price will continue to hover/drop. Will stick with it.
BrightWorld - It seems to be coming to be reversing soon. MACD shows reversal patterns. Trend is still kinda healthy.
BioTreat - An ideal stock for trend followers as it is trending and stable. SAR flipped and it might be an indication that it might be surging up. MACD line crossing the signal line is also an indication of good things to follow.
ChinaAOil - MACD reversed to show growing momentum in the opposite direction. Coupled by a potential flip in SAR soon and decreasing RSI index, CAO will be reaching consolidation/selling state.
MiddleEastD - MACD has been weak in the recent weaks. However, overall positive trends will make this continue to surge after the consolidation period.
NobleGroup - Trend seems to evolve to sideways. Will wait to observe more cues before determining the outcome.
Rotary - This time, it seems to be be surging up. SAR is indicating positive, MACD crosee over , pointing to the North today. RSI growing as well.
*dont know why it did not reflect on the blog.. but i will repost todayLabels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, MiddleEastD, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:17 PM |
|
|
|
| Tuesday, May 15, 2007 |
| Chop 'n' Save |
Ho Bee finally faced the chopping board. It might been a bit unfortunate that another the correction came just as it is starting to show signs of picking up.
Ho Bee hit the CPL of $2.29. The CPL was $2.31, but i compromised, which isn't the right thing. It left a tinge of sour note as my Ho Bee was averaged up to $2.17. What are the lessons to take from this? MAYBE I shouldn't have rushed when I averaged up. It was kinda flat at that moment and I tried to predict the up trend. Maybe that shouldn't be the way as it contradicts my style. Of cos, hindsight trading is easy, but I shall reflect on it again.
The CPL line is absurd when the mark is just based slightly above the buy price. It just doesn't make sense. Of cos, for stocks like CAO, Ho Bee, Golden Agri, Olam, I could afford this as margin of safety is high. But for others, well, seems like therer need to be some criteria before I start using the CPL.
Next on the chopping board is Rotary. I wont make any decisions tomorrow. but i will keep an eye on things.Labels: HoBee |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:51 PM |
|
|
|
|
| Those that might run this week |
Firstly, as a trend follower, you just need to follow the trend and stick to it. Rules are set such that you won't have to trade so often (something i have not done in the past). This means that there will be times you need to stick with the retracement, which might be a long period if it runs up too far, too fast.
So what I'm gonna state here are stocks that might shoot up this week.
Rotary --> MACD showing signs of a new run. Might start within the next few days or early next week.
HoBee --> Might need 2 more weeks with small possibility of running up in late week.
Thats about it.. Others are either retracing or still running upwards, so no point repeating again.Labels: HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 12:02 AM |
|
|
|
| Saturday, May 12, 2007 |
| Weekly Round up + portfolio update |
This week has shown mixed results again.
MiddleEastD Price rose but that does not indicate an uptrend breaking up. While it seems that the downward momentum is coming to an end, RSI and SAR still shows down. Nothing critical yet though.
Asia Env As stated previously, it is taking a breather and all signs are pointing towards it. We shall now wait and see how bad the retracement is.
ChinaAviationOil
CPL at $1.86 has all but ensured a 45% returns. Will enter again when there is a retracement. At the moment, I have no funds. So most probably have to wait for next month when I get my pay. Needless to say, this stock is running fast now.
BrightWorld The issue with buying pennies is that the cut loss limit is so tight. I bought this at 0.475 and according to percentage, the cut loss is at 0.445. Seems like its possible to hit that range as it is retracing now. (The difficult part is to identify the difference between retracement and reversal) As of now, it will be assumed as retracement.
NobleGroup MACD showing signs of weakness and RSI declining slowly. This stock seems to be the short term punters dreams due to its fluctuations. I'm not like that but on a whole its on a healthy trend. Hopefully, this MACD slowdown period (now) is the retracement period.
BioTreat Its kinda strange why it opened so much lower than the previous day closing price. Maybe BioTreat has lots of short term traders and they might sell the stock out of fear because of DJ's drop the previous day. Nothing much to read from this chart other than the probable composition of the style of investors in this stock. Guess I better be careful. Its always safer to ride a trend full of fundamentalists as their tendency to hold is higher.
Rotary The stock I whined the most. It should be ok as candlesticks shows that people are trying to push the price up (my own interpretation). Nothing much to say at the moment. Only time will tell.
HoBee It has passed my CPL level. Seems like it might even hit oversold soon. Again, the reason might be attributed to the Dow Factor, but it seems like its bye bye to it soon. Monday should be my final day to judge it, and I will put an alert at $2.30. Should it hit it, then I have to say my thanks to Ho Bee for the good ride.
Portfolio Updates as of 11 May 2007
 Labels: AsiaEnv, Bio Treat, BrightWorld, ChinaAviationOil, HoBee, MiddleEastD, NenixDreams Fund, NobleGroup, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:31 PM |
|
|
|
| Thursday, May 10, 2007 |
| Automation |
The stuff I am doing is on automation. using a language I know nuts about. Hah.. luckily I have source code for reference. 4 days have passed and I feel like I understand VBA better. Seems like I can start to automate my system.. That would be cool, so I don't have to update my prices on 3 seperate spreadsheets every day.
MiddleEastD
Losing steam now but its ok i guess. But should pick up soon. No worries about that.
Asia Env
Hah.. Losing steam as well. MACD did cut and SAR did flip. seems like its taking a breather. No worries on that though.
BrightWorld
Lost steam too. All these 3 that I bought around the same time all lost steam together.
Ho Bee
It has been inching so ever close to CPL of 2.32. Tomorrow shld be profit taking day, but dont see any profit to take from here. Oh well.. hope all goes right.
Rotary
It picked up. This time round, I wont make the mistake of holding for too long. I will let go a certain number of lots once the speculative portion hits my short term line. STI has been quite forgiving, in fact, due to bullishness, its always fine to try some methods here and there.
Cheeros for tomorrowLabels: AsiaEnv, HoBee, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:24 PM |
|
|
|
| Tuesday, May 08, 2007 |
| Review for 8th May 2007 |
You know, I really hope that I can get past one day without mentioning my holdings (meaning all increasing steadily), but thats not the case. China market seems to cool down and you know what? Singapore's market fell much more than their counterparts. Haha. Its like everyone can rise for all they care, and Singapore won't move up much. But however, if one country cools down, Singapore will drop much more than them. Kiasi mentality I suppose. (A bit like me)
MiddleEastD
MACD cuts downwards, RSI drops downwards, and it is without doubt that SAR indicator will flip. All this will point towards a downtrend. Of cos, it might be nothing serious but the fact that there is an indication of downtrend means that I must keep a lookout on it as well.
AsiaEnv
MACD touched and might cut downwards tomorrow, RSI hit the 70 mark, and SAR flipped. This means that another downtrend (possibly temporary) might be occurring. Time to sit tight!
BrightWorld
Not so Bright at the moment, SAR flipped, MACD touched, RSI hitting 50 and might go down further tomorrow. Today's drop seems kinda big compared to their regular price movement. Seems like it might due to the CD. Like AsiaEnv, its time to sit tight
Rotary
Like what I mentioned the other day, rotary seems to be at the bottom of the trough. Seems like I'm spot on (so heng). Anyway, its still showing downtrend signals although signs of reversal are showing. As usual, I still haven't reduce my position size. haha
Ho Bee
Seems like its inching closer and closer to my CPL line. I really dont wish to make a forced decision. Signs dont show an obvious reversal, so its possible that it is still decreasing.
Tomorrow might be another day full of decisions to make.. haha.. hope its not that much of a headache.Labels: AsiaEnv, BrightWorld, HoBee, MiddleEastD, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 8:56 PM |
|
|
|
| Monday, May 07, 2007 |
| System fault? |
According to my system, BrightWorld has touched the CPL line. But it doesn't make sense to sell. What I didn't look out for is that this is quite a volatile stock, thus, the system thought that it has hit a downtrend, dropping from 0.51 to 0.475. Anyway, the trend still looks good, so will hold longer.
Rotary has been the one that gives me trouble. Everyday, I say I will reduce the position size, but everyday I did not execute. Actually, assuming that the trend is still going upwards, now is the time to buy as technical indicators indicates a possible lowest point of the trough.
HoBee is inching closer to my CPL line of $2.31. Haha.. I do not wish to make another decision so soon.
P.S Olam rebounded in such amazing fashion. But I can't really regret it since I a rules follower..Labels: BrightWorld, HoBee, Rotary |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:43 PM |
|
|
|
| Sunday, May 06, 2007 |
| Another Chapter |
Just as I thought I would have more time to focus on building my system, more things just came out.
First, I have my Final Year Project going on. My prof wants me to meet him every week to discuss my progress, even in the holidays! Well, at least it keeps me going, preventing me from slacking off. haha.
Second, I am glad I have found an intern job. And its starting 7th May. I am doing IT stuff in cost management/process automation stuff. Though I would prefer to be in an investment related department/division, I have to be satisfied that I have an intern placement. Guess it might be a busy summer holidays.
Third, I am not that good in IT, thus I have to read up more. Hopefully, the things I learn could be used to streamline my own system. haha
Now is time to test whether I could be a part time trader, with a job during the day. Testing times and I am game for that! |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:36 PM |
|
|
|
| Wednesday, May 02, 2007 |
| Poor Service |
Tomorrow I have my final paper. Because I can't really monitor the shares, and because like I mentioned in the past posts, I want to reduce the position size of my shares, especially since its in CFD, I called my broker. And to be honest, I am really appalled by the service.
Nenix: Hi, is this Jack(Not real name)? I'm Nenix(Not real name either)
Jack: Er.. Nenix? Hm..... What's your surname?
Nenix: Dreams(Fake again). *in my mind, i'm like what the fuck? It has been a few months and I have been constantly bugging him regarding CFD issues, and he still don't know me?*
Jack: Oh.. ok.. what is it regarding?
Nenix: I need you to help me monitor Rotary and help me sell XX lots if it hits below 0.99.
Jack: Er. its a bit difficult for me cos I am monitoring other things as well. You can't do it yourself?
Nenix: I have exams and the labs in schools are all closed, thus I don't have any internet access.
Jack: Erm.. ok.. I will try.. but no promises because I am monitoring other stuff as well.
Thats about the whole conversation and it makes me super pissed. What kind of service is that? Even my other broker(who serves high net worth people), serves me much better than him. She remembers my name when I call (although im just one of her small client), she helps me fulfill my orders when I can't access the internet etc.
Anyway, even though I have the desire to down my size on Rotary, I still want to hold. Tomorrow will be a test for my broker.. If he sells when it didn't break or if he sells when it has way broken its point, then I guess I will be looking for another broker. |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:30 PM |
|
|
|
|
| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
|
| Links |
|
|
| Tools that Generate Passive Income |
|
| Previous Post |
|
| Archives |
|
|
|
