|
| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 |
| Overal update on my holdings |
AsiaEnv
MidTerm perspective
- A reversal seems to be in place even though it is still unclear at this point if it is a temporary pullback.
- The 12w and the 26w EMA touches and it could be observed that midterm wise, it does not bode well as it soon going to trend downwards.
- However, recent signs have been positive with MACD improving and price surging
ShortTerm perspective
- What we see is that the dust has finally settled at around $0.60. The 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA, albeit its small magnitude.
- Thinning volume, coupled by a healthy SAR indicator, and improving MACD, with MFI increasing strength, all points to price surging upwards.
My take
- It is understandable that the drop in prices in the bigger picture displays a downtrend.
- However, strong readings from several indicators in the short term all points to a strong recovery. I will top up my holdings on this once it hits my buying trigger. At the moment, my finances are a little bit tight.
Boustead
MidTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5w, 12w, 26w EMA. Judging from the charts, the 5w EMA sits firmly above the 12w EMA
ShortTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5d, 12d, 26d EMA.
- Currently, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. This is an indication that it is experiencing a pullback.
- This can be observed by the drop in the MFI index, indicating a movement to weaker market strength.
- However, the important thing is that volume is extremely thin. Even for today's price drop to $2.28, only 1 lot has been done.
My take
- In the Mid-term perspective, things still look as good. On the shorter term though, it seems as the price is being pressured downwards. However, the volume is extremely thin and it could suggest that either there are strong hands are trying to push down the price so that indicators will indicate a selling sign or weak hands panic selling in this sort of volatile environment. I personally believe that it is the former as weak hands are most probably weeded out during the meltdown in mid-August.
- So it should still be a strong hold. Of cos, as my system is based on buy and sell triggers, it is likely that it could be forced down to my selling point. I will make my decision when it reaches that point.
ChinaAOil
MidTerm perspective
- Price movement suggests that it is undergoing a retracement. This is particularly attributed to the meltdown however, even before the meltdown, you could see the surge slowing down. At one time, it seems as though it might just drop down hitting a price of $1.78, however it recovered to the $2.38 range. - Indicators, in particular the SAR, shows that retracement will still continue and there are no signs of a reversal yet
ShortTerm perspective
- Short term however, we have seen prices trying to surge only to be halted due to overall market sentiment. - The 5d EMA and the 12d EMA seems to cross up soon though, coupled by decreasing volume, is an indication that a reversal might be coming sooner rather than later. - At the moment, the counter does not clearly show any direction, even though we are looking at lesser price ranges. My take
- From the midterm perspective, it is understandable that it retraces after a lengthy surge. The credit crisis certainly acts as a catalyst for the retracement. - From the short term perspective, it could be an indication to load up now as the thinning volume suggests that there will be a breakout in price soon. ChipEngSeng
MidTerm perspective
- Similar to CAO, it is currently showing a retracement chart.
- The uptrend is still intact with prices still at the support line.
- It might be testing to break $0.90 in the following weeks.
ShortTerm perspective
- SAR is still healthy even though the prices are trading at a level very near my selling trigger.
- CES is currently showing weakness in the very short term, with MACD and MFI all showing unfavorable readings.
- However, we could observe a few points in recent times. Firstly, price recovery since mid August has been strong and it is observed by huge volumes. Secondly, recent selldowns are in small volumes compared to those during the recovery period. This just means that this period is most probably a profit-taking period rather than a panic-selldown prelude. If you need to find a term for a price chart, it would be a "flag". According to books, this means that a breakout is imminent.
My take
- I need to reiterate that as trend followers, we DO NOT predict future prices. Thus, though I might predict that it might test $0.90 in following weeks, it does not mean that I have to buy based on that decisions. In fact, I bought at $0.93 one week ago. Regardless, the long term trend is still intact, thus there is not much worry to sell.
- Short term wise, as this is a top volume counter, we would expect to see lots of fluctuations. Trendlines bound to be whipsawed frequently.
- I have bought at $0.93 and my cutloss is at $0.805. My only regret is that I should refrain from entering this counter when it is top volume. Such volume often makes the indicators skewed. Anyway, my selling trigger is near. So depending on how things go, I might have to sell this soon.
CWT
MidTerm perspective
- Severly tested the 26w EMA. However, it recovers very quickly.
- This shows that this is a rather resilient counter. Needless to say, the uptrend is still intact.
ShortTerm perspective
- Very impressive. Its 5d EMA has cut both its 12d and 26d EMA.
- Price surge coupled by increased volume is a bullish indication.
- Short term uptrend firmly in place.
My take
- Both short term and middle term charts are amazingly bullish.
- Not a good time to enter now though as MFI seems to tread into overbought region soon.
- However, this stock might be a good counter by year end as it certainly seems to have the momentum to propel upwards.
Federal
MidTerm perspective
- Another stock bought due to amazing recovery. The chart is similar to CWT although it just tested the 12w EMA.
- Its Midterm retracement seems to be coming to an end soon, indicating that the uptrend will continue soon.
ShortTerm perspective
- Looks good as well due to its uptrend even though it seems that it will be trading at this price for sometime.
- Volume still hasn't thinned yet, indicating that there might be more upside within the next few days.
My take
- Just hold it. Like CWT, it doesn't show any apparent weakness in price movement yet.
FerroChina
MidTerm perspective
- Heavily battered counter during the correction
- However, it still has not break the 26w EMA
- It is at the moment trending sideways though as it recovers slowly from the correction.
ShortTerm perspective
- 5d EMA cuts the 12d EMA, thinning volume, converging prices, all leads to point out that it is recovering.
- Breakout seems imminent, even though I bought it when the EMA intersected.
My take
- Seems ok. I would say, this is similar to CAO in its huge surge. Thus it is understandable that it retraces.
- I would collect more if I had more finances.
FJBen
MidTerm perspective
- Broke the 26w EMA during correction but recovered strongly the following week. Indicates its resilience.
- Price converging in midterm horizon suggest that a breakout in price is imminent and it will set itself to trend in that direction.
ShortTerm perspective
- Thinning volume, trading sideways at the moment
- EMAs seems to converge (not a good thing)
My take
- Seems like it doesn't have momentum to propel it, even though signs are showing that there will be a surge soon, upwards or downwards.
- It is difficult at the moment as I feel most are sitted in the sidelines.
Part 2 to continue next time.....Labels: AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, ChipEngSeng, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen |
posted by Nenix @ 9:04 PM   |
|
|
|
| Thursday, September 06, 2007 |
| My views on ChipEngSeng |
This is from a technical point of view. And i will try as much as possible to draw conclusions from the charts.
Firstly, ChipEngSeng closed at its lowest on 17th August at $0.65. and closed at its highest on 3rd September at $0.905. That is a 39.23% recovering from its low. Volume in general has gone up in tandem with the price. This means that concentration of buyers is higher than that of sellers.
Deductions: In times of uncertainty like now, investors/traders would have taken the sub-prime risk into considerations. The major retailers left in this market are most probably savvy day/short term traders and/or long term investors who believe that the subprime risk will not affect the business of the company drastically.
Thus the rapid recovery could be pointed to the fact that these people find this a good stock to go into. To me, that is a good sign that it is resilient. However, the huge volumes would suggest that contra-players might be in place and volatility of the stock IS to be expected.
Secondly, It is resilient. Looking at the weekly indicators (5w,12w,26w EMA), the 12w EMA was barely even close to the 26w EMA.
Deductions: Though EMAs, especially those of longer time horizon are lagging, it is useful in filtering out the noise. It goes on to show that long term wise, it is going in the right direction
My views: After rising so much since the low, whats the fuss about the retracement? Surely you don't expect share prices to rise everyday right? For now, I think we wont be able to expect share prices to keep cheonging like no tomorrow. And it is clearly indicated by its ATR. In fact almost all the stocks I hold belong to the highly volatile catergory, (STI ETFs, Lyxor China H, MMPReits being the exception). I have set my cutloss of Chip to be at $0.80 and I think it is reasonable considering the situation now.Labels: ChipEngSeng |
| posted by Nenix @ 10:07 AM |
|
|
|
| Monday, September 03, 2007 |
| Another Trigger point hit |
Triggered my buying signals for YongNam and ChipEngSeng. Bought positions relative to the risk taken. Loaded at $0.44 and $0.93 respectively.
I have not much to comment, only the fact that more and more are hitting my buying trigger and it is soon hitting my total risk limit. I need to carefully monitor my holdings as well. Hopefully, things will not be too difficult to handle.Labels: ChipEngSeng, YongNam |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:55 PM |
|
|
|
|
| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
|
| Links |
|
|
| Tools that Generate Passive Income |
|
| Previous Post |
|
| Archives |
|
|
|
