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| Monday, October 08, 2007 |
| Triggered |
As stated in my previous posts, the selldown trigger for CWT is $1.22. However, upon hitting the trigger, I sold it at $1.20. Is this due to impatience that I sold it at the low of $1.20? Maybe, but I have been patient for long enough and it has undoubtedly hit my trigger.
My Returns for this counter has been relatively good, with a 25.65% for the position size. Now, I shall move on to consolidate my positions. Seems like it will be another shaky week (which once again proves that my prediction sucks). So now might be a good time to consolidate my counters so that I have fewer counters. Labels: CWT |
posted by Nenix @ 5:13 PM   |
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| Saturday, September 29, 2007 |
| Summary of holdings |
Man.. Its lots of holdings, haha.. many have told me its not a good thing. I fully understand the cons behind holding a diversified portfolio, but at that point in time, I wasn't that confident with the situations, thus I feel a diversified portfolio will be less risky. Anyway, I will give a brief technical summary of my stocks in alphabetical order. Note that the levels for support are just prediction. I wont follow it as I'm a trend follower and I will wait till it reverses before I sell.
AdvSCT
- 12d EMA crosses 26d EMA
- breakout $0.91 level
- Clear uptrend and will test resistance of $0.935, with $1.01 being the next level
- At the moment, it is still 23.36% off the peak of $1.22
- Cut loss trigger placed at $0.855 as of Friday's closing
AsiaEnv
- 5d EMA waiting to cross 12d EMA
- Trading sideways
- Looks like a controlled counter
- Sustaining at a level above $0.67 is crucial
- At the moment, it is 33.22% off the peak at $0.935
- As this is reccommended by my bro, I have no cut loss
Boustead
- Uptrend
- Resistence at $2.45
- TA should be thrown out of the window as volume is low
- Resilent stock that just needs catalyst (news) to push it up
- At the moment, it is at a new high as it recovered from the correction.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CAO
- 12dEMA converging with 26dEMA
- Breakout from recent consolidation
- At the moment it is 20% off its high of $3.20
- Should test $2.78 before testing its high of $3.20
- Should surge during the next week.
- Cut loss at $2.29
CWT
- Uptrend in place
- Showing signs of consolidation
- Currently making new highs
- Cut loss at $1.21
Federal
- Uptrend albeit with lesser momentum
- At the moment, its is 7.4% off its high of $0.94
- Might consolidate next week
- Cut loss at $0.775
FerroChina
- Uptrend
- Strong momentum
- At the moment, it is 17.7% off its high of $2.88
- Will continue its surge next week
- Might test $2.88 by end of next week
- Cut loss at $2.175
FJBen
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Most probably surge till XD
- Cut loss at $0.845
Gold
- Uptrend
- Irregular trade might disturb charts
- Long term counter, no cut loss
HiapSeng
- Uptrend might end soon
- Selling pressure might trigger cut loss
- At the moment, it is 27.08% off its high at $1.20
- Cut loss at $0.785
Lyxor China H
- Uptrend intact
- Healthy momentum
- Surge will continue
- Cut loss at $20.97
MiddleEastD
- Showing uptrend due to breakout
- At the moment, it is 47.7% off its peak of $0.45
- Need to sustain at $0.235 with significant volume
- Test $0.245, then $0.270.
- Cut loss at $0.20
MMP Reit
- Sideways trading
- Good for range trading between $1.25 and $1.20
- No cut loss as this is a long term counter
OKP
- Uptrend although might consolidate
- Have to test resistence at $0.90
- At the moment, it is 17.78% off its peak of $1.03
- Cut loss at $0.765
Pac Andes
- Consolidation might have ended
- Must at least sustain at a level above $0.77, with next level at $0.86
- At the moment, it is 26.67% off its peak of $1.05, even though it isnt accurate as that is pre-rights scenario. A more accurate "peak" would be at $0.86
- Cut loss at $0.715
Rotary
- Uptrend
- Recovered from correction
- Poor momentum
- Cut loss at $1.29
Soilbuild
- Slow uptrend
- At the moment, it is 26.37% off its peak at $1.82
- Momentum picking up
- Main resistence at $1.47 and $1.6
- Cut loss at $1.25
STI ETF
- Uptrend
- Long term, so dont really bother and no cut loss as well
Swissco
- Uptrend
- At the moment it is 9.33% off its peak at $1.50
- Cut loss at $1.22
Tiongwoon
- Uptrend but going through a small consolidation phase
- Most probably resume surge next week
- At the moment, it is 11.9% off its peak at $1.26
- Cut loss at $0.98Labels: advSCT, AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen, Gld10US$, HiapSeng, LyxorChinaH, MiddleEastD, MMPReit, OKP, PacAndes, Rotary, Soilbuild, STI ETF100, Swissco, TiongWoon |
| posted by Nenix @ 2:06 AM |
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| Tuesday, September 11, 2007 |
| Overal update on my holdings |
AsiaEnv
MidTerm perspective
- A reversal seems to be in place even though it is still unclear at this point if it is a temporary pullback.
- The 12w and the 26w EMA touches and it could be observed that midterm wise, it does not bode well as it soon going to trend downwards.
- However, recent signs have been positive with MACD improving and price surging
ShortTerm perspective
- What we see is that the dust has finally settled at around $0.60. The 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA, albeit its small magnitude.
- Thinning volume, coupled by a healthy SAR indicator, and improving MACD, with MFI increasing strength, all points to price surging upwards.
My take
- It is understandable that the drop in prices in the bigger picture displays a downtrend.
- However, strong readings from several indicators in the short term all points to a strong recovery. I will top up my holdings on this once it hits my buying trigger. At the moment, my finances are a little bit tight.
Boustead
MidTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5w, 12w, 26w EMA. Judging from the charts, the 5w EMA sits firmly above the 12w EMA
ShortTerm perspective
- This is judged using the 5d, 12d, 26d EMA.
- Currently, the 5d EMA has cut the 12d EMA. This is an indication that it is experiencing a pullback.
- This can be observed by the drop in the MFI index, indicating a movement to weaker market strength.
- However, the important thing is that volume is extremely thin. Even for today's price drop to $2.28, only 1 lot has been done.
My take
- In the Mid-term perspective, things still look as good. On the shorter term though, it seems as the price is being pressured downwards. However, the volume is extremely thin and it could suggest that either there are strong hands are trying to push down the price so that indicators will indicate a selling sign or weak hands panic selling in this sort of volatile environment. I personally believe that it is the former as weak hands are most probably weeded out during the meltdown in mid-August.
- So it should still be a strong hold. Of cos, as my system is based on buy and sell triggers, it is likely that it could be forced down to my selling point. I will make my decision when it reaches that point.
ChinaAOil
MidTerm perspective
- Price movement suggests that it is undergoing a retracement. This is particularly attributed to the meltdown however, even before the meltdown, you could see the surge slowing down. At one time, it seems as though it might just drop down hitting a price of $1.78, however it recovered to the $2.38 range. - Indicators, in particular the SAR, shows that retracement will still continue and there are no signs of a reversal yet
ShortTerm perspective
- Short term however, we have seen prices trying to surge only to be halted due to overall market sentiment. - The 5d EMA and the 12d EMA seems to cross up soon though, coupled by decreasing volume, is an indication that a reversal might be coming sooner rather than later. - At the moment, the counter does not clearly show any direction, even though we are looking at lesser price ranges. My take
- From the midterm perspective, it is understandable that it retraces after a lengthy surge. The credit crisis certainly acts as a catalyst for the retracement. - From the short term perspective, it could be an indication to load up now as the thinning volume suggests that there will be a breakout in price soon. ChipEngSeng
MidTerm perspective
- Similar to CAO, it is currently showing a retracement chart.
- The uptrend is still intact with prices still at the support line.
- It might be testing to break $0.90 in the following weeks.
ShortTerm perspective
- SAR is still healthy even though the prices are trading at a level very near my selling trigger.
- CES is currently showing weakness in the very short term, with MACD and MFI all showing unfavorable readings.
- However, we could observe a few points in recent times. Firstly, price recovery since mid August has been strong and it is observed by huge volumes. Secondly, recent selldowns are in small volumes compared to those during the recovery period. This just means that this period is most probably a profit-taking period rather than a panic-selldown prelude. If you need to find a term for a price chart, it would be a "flag". According to books, this means that a breakout is imminent.
My take
- I need to reiterate that as trend followers, we DO NOT predict future prices. Thus, though I might predict that it might test $0.90 in following weeks, it does not mean that I have to buy based on that decisions. In fact, I bought at $0.93 one week ago. Regardless, the long term trend is still intact, thus there is not much worry to sell.
- Short term wise, as this is a top volume counter, we would expect to see lots of fluctuations. Trendlines bound to be whipsawed frequently.
- I have bought at $0.93 and my cutloss is at $0.805. My only regret is that I should refrain from entering this counter when it is top volume. Such volume often makes the indicators skewed. Anyway, my selling trigger is near. So depending on how things go, I might have to sell this soon.
CWT
MidTerm perspective
- Severly tested the 26w EMA. However, it recovers very quickly.
- This shows that this is a rather resilient counter. Needless to say, the uptrend is still intact.
ShortTerm perspective
- Very impressive. Its 5d EMA has cut both its 12d and 26d EMA.
- Price surge coupled by increased volume is a bullish indication.
- Short term uptrend firmly in place.
My take
- Both short term and middle term charts are amazingly bullish.
- Not a good time to enter now though as MFI seems to tread into overbought region soon.
- However, this stock might be a good counter by year end as it certainly seems to have the momentum to propel upwards.
Federal
MidTerm perspective
- Another stock bought due to amazing recovery. The chart is similar to CWT although it just tested the 12w EMA.
- Its Midterm retracement seems to be coming to an end soon, indicating that the uptrend will continue soon.
ShortTerm perspective
- Looks good as well due to its uptrend even though it seems that it will be trading at this price for sometime.
- Volume still hasn't thinned yet, indicating that there might be more upside within the next few days.
My take
- Just hold it. Like CWT, it doesn't show any apparent weakness in price movement yet.
FerroChina
MidTerm perspective
- Heavily battered counter during the correction
- However, it still has not break the 26w EMA
- It is at the moment trending sideways though as it recovers slowly from the correction.
ShortTerm perspective
- 5d EMA cuts the 12d EMA, thinning volume, converging prices, all leads to point out that it is recovering.
- Breakout seems imminent, even though I bought it when the EMA intersected.
My take
- Seems ok. I would say, this is similar to CAO in its huge surge. Thus it is understandable that it retraces.
- I would collect more if I had more finances.
FJBen
MidTerm perspective
- Broke the 26w EMA during correction but recovered strongly the following week. Indicates its resilience.
- Price converging in midterm horizon suggest that a breakout in price is imminent and it will set itself to trend in that direction.
ShortTerm perspective
- Thinning volume, trading sideways at the moment
- EMAs seems to converge (not a good thing)
My take
- Seems like it doesn't have momentum to propel it, even though signs are showing that there will be a surge soon, upwards or downwards.
- It is difficult at the moment as I feel most are sitted in the sidelines.
Part 2 to continue next time.....Labels: AsiaEnv, Boustead, ChinaAviationOil, ChipEngSeng, CWT, Federal, FerroChina, FJBen |
| posted by Nenix @ 9:04 PM |
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| NenixDreams Fund |
| Fund launchprice on 1st August 2006= $1
Target for 2007 = Beat STI index
Current price of NDF as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.58
Current price of STI as of 1st Oct 2007 = $1.54
Difference with STI index is 0.04
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